Oringinally published 11/11/97:
A R A F A T S I C K : . THE RACE FOR "FINAL SETTLEMENT" WHILE ARAFAT CAN BE
USED
MER - Washington - 11 November, 1997:
Whatever they admit to in public, there is actually a great eagerness and sense of
urgency among many Israelis and Americans to "conclude" a "final
settlement" with the Palestinians poste haste.
They know the Arab world is not likely to ever be so disunited and impotent again as it
is today. They know that for the foreseeable future the Palestinians are not likely to
ever be in a weaker position or so badly led than they are today. They know that the
United Nations has been humbled and controlled by Washington; and that this situation will
not continue indefinitely.
They know that the Gulf Arab "client-regimes" are shaking and may not last
very far into the next millennium. And they also know that unless some kind of
"peace" is achieved in the Middle East region -- however illusory it might be --
an arms race involving missiles and weapons of mass destruction will escalate far beyond
its current dimensions.
Most importantly they know that Yasser Arafat represents their best hope of getting the
Palestinians to live as Indians on Reservations, as Blacks on Bantustans, even while
proclaiming that they have achieved some kind of statehood -- however illusory.
Hence, concerns over Arafat's health are quite substantial, no matter what is said in
public. This important article is from the LONDON SUNDAY TIMES last Sunday:
ARAFAT: FEARS OF PARKINSON'S
ARAFAT HEALTH SCARE PUTS PEACE PROCESS IN JEOPARDY
by Andy Goldberg & Uzi Mahnaimi
YASSER ARAFAT, the Palestinian leader, is suffering from Parkinson's disease, according
to a report compiled by Israeli military intelligence. He is receiving treatment for
symptoms of tremor and muscular rigidity but shows no sign of becoming incapacitated, it
claims.
Palestinian officials have previously dismissed suggestions that Arafat's health is
declining, saying they are the result of a disinformation campaign by Israel to
destabilise the Palestinian government. However, sources familiar with the report, drawn
up by Amman, Israel's military intelligence branch, describe it as "raw
intelligence" from an extensive dossier on the medical and psychological profiles of
prominent figures worldwide. The report emphasizes that "in spite of the symptoms,
Arafat's mental and psychological functions show no signs of deterioration". It says
it could be years before Parkinson's, a progressive disease of the nervous system, renders
him incapable of fulfilling his duties.
According to the report, Arafat, 68, is being treated with L-dopa, a drug used in
Parkinson's patients to counter weakness and tremor caused by deficiencies of a compound
called dopamine that affects impulses between nerves and muscles. It also claims that
Arafat is suffering from sclerosis - abnormal hardening - of the brain tissue.
The diagnosis will come as no surprise to those who have seen him at close quarters in
recent months. In September he collapsed at an Arab League meeting in Cairo. He fainted at
a session of the Palestinian legislative council last month and was taken to hospital.
Those who have met Arafat in recent weeks say he sometimes has difficulty in speaking. His
lower lip, hands and feet tremble involuntarily and his memory is said to lapse.
The intelligence report indicates that his handwriting has changed and his face has
become frozen, a typical side effect of Parkinson's. His gait and posture are said to have
stiffened and his eyes are sometimes fixed on a point in the distance. The report
concludes that he is in constant pain.
Arafat, however, has been written off many times before. In 1967 he narrowly escaped
capture when Israeli troops occupied the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the six-day war. In
1982, Israel's attacks on Lebanon forced him to flee by ferry with a ragged band of
Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) fighters to Tunis.
His luckiest escape came in 1992 when his plane was forced to make a crash-landing in
the Libyan desert.
Aides to Arafat claim his obvious nervous disorders are the harmless result of a blood
clot that developed after the accident. They say the frustration of dealing with an
Israeli government he accuses of obstructing the Middle East peace process has also taken
its toll on Arafat's nerves.
Despite such pressures, he remains "as strong as an ox", according to close
advisers. While he no longer maintains a regime of 16-hour working days, Palestinian
officials still wait all night outside his room for a brief meeting.
Their denials that Arafat is seriously ill have failed to halt speculation among Middle
Eastern analysts about who might succeed him. Mahmoud Abbas, the secretary-general of the
PLO, appears a likely candidate.
However, most observers agree that Arafat's death would undermine the Palestinian
leadership. Without his authority, they say, overcoming Islamic militants and striking a
peace deal with Israel would be much more difficult. Most dangerous of all could be a
resurgence of support for Hamas, the Islamic fundamentalist group, which has mounted a
series of suicide bomb attacks in Israel.
Some Israeli hawks welcome the prospect of instability that would follow the
Palestinian leader's death. They believe any deterioration in his condition could provide
an opportunity to ditch the Oslo peace accord he signed with Yitzhak Rabin, the former
Israeli premier who was assassinated two years ago by a right-wing extremist.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, has made no significant concessions. Many
believe the death of Arafat would signal the end of the Middle East peace process.
