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July 2000 - Current Index   Complete Index  This Month                MiddleEast.Org 7/18/00
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                        IRAN'S POWER AND THREAT

               "This is a step forward in the Iranian buildup
               of power, and, as a state that Iran says is the
               devil and must be eradicated from the world,
               we cannot be apathetic...  We have to go up one,
               two or even three levels in our defense
                      Israeli Deputy Defense Minister
                      Ephraim Sneh (15 July)

MID-EAST REALITIES (MER) - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 17 July:
   The Israelis are way dominant at the moment in every measure - military, economic, political, intelligence.  And that explains why the "agreement" being imposed on the Palestinians through Yasser Arafat at Camp David is far closer to the long-rejected "autonomy" formulations than to real Statehood.
   But even so, the Israelis know there are more than 200 million Arabs and 1 billion Muslims in this world; and yes they are worried, especially about Iran which a few days ago tested the new medium range Shahab-3 missile.  For the first time, with Shahab-3 the Iranians have a weapon that can reach Israel; and they are expected to have nuclear tips for it within a few years.
   The Arabs have been nearly totally defeated, co-opted, manipulated, or destroyed.
Arab unity and the Arab League are jokes these days; and the Palestinians have been pushed and twisted onto autonomous reservations over which they fly their flag and however skeptically watch Arafat's pretenses to independence.
   But the Iranians have yet to be so co-opted and continue to resist all the inducements and incentives to joining the Westernized new world order.  Moreover, Iran continues to represent both Islamic assertiveness and regional independence -- the two most important forces opposing Western domination and Israeli regional supremacy.
   Former Chief of Staff and commando General Ehud Barak knows all this all too well, and in fact he is working overtime to consolidate various kinds of "peace deals" with the neighboring weak Arab regimes, as well as with "Palestinian Authority", knowing that a confrontation with Muslim, though not Arab, Iran may lie in the not too distant future.
   Indeed, it is instructive to remember that it was after Camp David I and the deal with Egypt at that time that Israel made war on Lebanon and laid seige to Beirut, as well as helped manipulate both Iraq's war against Iran and then the Gulf War a decade later.  So don't be too surprised if shortly after the declaration of a Palestinian State coming out of Camp David II there is some kind of conflict with Iran aiming to take down Iran's capability to produce and deliver weapons of mass destruction, as was done with the attack on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor three years after Camp David I.  And with Israel's alliance with Turkey and India being considerably strengthened these days, don't be too surprised if Pakistan gets drawn in and hit in some way as well.
   Indeed, this may in fact be the obscured meaning of Barak's comments from Camp David on 15 July that "The power of the Israeli army and strengthening Israel through peace agreements are the true answer to Shahab-3".

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