reply by
anti_seth
4/11/2002 (24:48) |
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Hmm let us see what michal r grodon was up to in say 1998
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U.S. Presses Russia on Iran and Missile Aid
The New York Times March 9, 1998
By MICHAEL R. GORDON
MOSCOW -- The United States is offering Russia the opportunity to expand its lucrative business launching foreign satellites if it clamps down on the sale of missile technology to Iran, senior American officials say.
The American position has been conveyed confidentially to the Russians and is part of a broad effort to discourage Russian companies and institutes from helping Iran develop a new surface-to-surface missile.
The offer is potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars to Russian companies and the Western companies that have formed partnerships with them.
'We are prepared to go forward and enhance cooperation in this area, but we cannot do it in the absence of progress on the Iran ballistic missile front,' a senior Clinton administration official said Sunday.
Washington has long been worried about Russian nuclear cooperation with Iran. But more recently the United States has also become concerned about Iran's effort to develop missiles that could carry a nuclear warhead, poison gas or germ weapons.
The nuclear and missile issues are on the agenda of this week's Washington meetings between Vice President Al Gore and Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.
Many of the satellites launched are American, and the United States already has an agreement that permits a limited number of Russian satellite launches.
Iran has been developing a new missile, called the Shahab 3, that has a range of about 800 miles -- long enough to reach Israel and Saudi Arabia and more than twice the range of a Scud missile.
American intelligence experts expect Iran to flight-test the missile over the next year or so. Much of the missile design is based on North Korean technology. Increasingly, however, American officials have become worried about the flow of missile technology from Russia.
Under strong American pressure, the Russians have taken a number of steps, including a new decree by President Boris Yeltsin tightening controls on the export of missile know-how to Iran. But American officials are waiting to see if the Russians strictly enforce the measure.
If the Russians do crack down, Washington is willing to ease limits on Russia's launching of foreign satellites, American officials say.
'This is not a carrot that is being created for this issue,' said an American specialist, who like some of the others willing to discuss the issue, spoke on condition of anonymity. 'The idea of allowing more launches is something that makes commercial sense, unless something disturbs the atmosphere and makes it difficult to do. If Iran did not exist, it is something that would probably proceed.'
Certainly, the easing of the limits could be a major boost for Russia's hard-strapped space program and a boon for the American companies, which have begun to join forces with the Russians in offering services launching communications, imaging and navigational satellites.
The current limits on satellite launches are enshrined in a 1996 agreement, which was signed by Gore and Chernomyrdin. Using a complicated formula, it limits the launches of foreign satellites that are placed in geostationary orbits 22,300 miles above the earth, enabling the satellite to stay over a fixed spot on the planet.
The 1996 accord sought to protect American companies from Russian competition. Since then, however, the space launch business has changed.
Lockheed-Martin, for example, is now part of a consortium with the Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center, which offers space launch services using Russia's Proton rocket.
Boeing is involved in a consortium with Russian, Ukrainian and Norwegian companies to launch satellites from a sea-based platform, which will operate near the equator.
'The increase of the quota is an important and necessary issue for us,' Yuri Koptev, the director of the Russian space agency and the official in charge of preventing sales of missile technology to Iran, said in an interview. 'It is not only a problem for Russia, it is also in the interest of American companies. We know that on February 5, the main manufacturers contacted Mr. Gore with a proposal to abolish these restrictions.'
Charles Vick, a research analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, estimated that the cost of each satellite launch could range from $80 million to $100 million.
'There would be more missions, more contracts, and it would really help the U.S. balance of payments as well as provide more money for the Russian economy,' Vick said.
Still, given the political sensitivity of the Iran issue and uncertainty about Russia's enforcement of its new technology controls, lifting the restriction will not be quick or easy.
To encourage Moscow to act, American officials have been sharing intelligence with it about suspected Russian deals with Iran.
Robert Gallucci, the former senior official who helped resolve the stalemate over North Korea's suspected nuclear program, was recently appointed a special administration envoy to Russia on the missile technology issue and visited Moscow last week.
Responding to American concerns, Russia has expelled an Iranian diplomat who was trying to purchase missile technology. It has also suspended a contract between a Russian rocket engine manufacturer and Iran.
But there have been allegations that Iranian missile scientists are still being trained by the Baltic State Technical University in St. Petersburg. And while Yeltsin ordered the tightening of export controls, the Russian bureaucracy has not always effectively carried out his orders.
'They have taken a number of important steps, but the issue now is implementation,' a senior American official said.
Russia's recently disclosed plans to increase the number of nuclear reactors it plans to sell to Iran has also clouded the picture.
Russian officials insist, however, that they are cracking down.
'The 13 cases which our American colleagues have so nicely informed us of have been considered, and we have provided detailed explanations,' Koptev said. 'In the cases where we saw some doubtful aspects, these contacts were severed.'
Both sides have been careful not to link the question of raising the space launch quota publicly with the Iran issue, though privately officials on both sides acknowledge the questions are bound together.
Koptev said the Americans have not made an 'official' proposal to ease the quota on launchers in return for Russian cooperation on Iran.
But he quickly added: 'I take dinner conversations very calmly, and I don't consider it an official discussion.'
The Clinton administration, for its part, appears to be concerned with avoiding the impression that it is rewarding the Russians for good behavior.
Several senior Clinton administration officials said that Washington had quietly made clear its readiness to ease the space launch restrictions once American conditions on Iran were met, but none would say so on the record.
'The Russians understand a lot about the American political system and they know that some steps are easier when relations are good and harder when they aren't,' an American expert said.
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Against U.S. Wishes, Russia Will Sell Reactors to Iran
The New York Times March 7, 1998
By MICHAEL R. GORDON
MOSCOW -- In a rebuff to the United States, Russia's Atomic Energy Ministry said on Friday that it plans to sell several additional nuclear reactors to Iran.
The disclosure came as the United States signed an agreement in Kiev under which Ukraine would withdraw from the Russian program to build a reactor at Bushehr, Iran.
American officials said that the Ukrainian accord would seriously delay the project. But Russian officials insisted that Moscow could complete the reactor on its own and had even dispatched a senior official to Iran to negotiate further sales.
Georgy Kaurov, a spokesman for Russia's Atomic Energy Ministry, said in an interview that an 'agreement in principle' concerning future reactor sales had been reached in recent talks in Tehran between Iranian officials and Vladimir Bulgak, a Russian deputy prime minister.
The political ramifications of the reactor sales outweigh the immediate implications for security in the volatile Middle East.
Work on the additional reactors would not begin until the first reactor at Bushehr is completed, a process that by Russian estimates will take two and half years. And some American officials doubt that Iran will ever be able to pay for all of them.
Still, the jousting by American and Russian officials underscores their inability to come to terms on the question of Iran and casts a cloud over next week's talks between the Russian prime minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, and Vice President Al Gore.
Gore has used his meetings with Chernomyrdin to showcase his expertise on foreign affairs to American voters. The Iran issue threatens to disrupt the carefully scripted scenario Gore's aides have developed of weighty policy deliberations that lead to American-Russian accord.
Russia's nuclear sales to Iran have long been a sore point in American-Russian relations. It began when Russia's former Minister of Atomic Energy, Viktor Mikhailov, shocked Washington by negotiating a major deal that provided for the sale of a reactor as well as advanced nuclear technology.
Under American pressure, the Russians curtailed, but did not drop, that deal. Moscow decided to proceed with the construction of a VVER-1,000 megawatt reactor at Bushehr for a sum of about $850 million.
American officials say that Clinton also received a private assurance from President Boris Yeltsin that Russia would not expand its nuclear cooperation. By Moscow's interpretation, that commitment does not preclude the sale of additional reactors to be built at Bushehr.
As outlined by Kaurov, the Atomic Energy Ministry's plan for exporting reactors to Iran goes as follows:
Russia plans to speed construction of the VVER-1,000 megatwatt power reactor at Bushehr. If Russia then determines that Iran is allowing international monitoring, Moscow will consider building a second one at the same location.
The next step would be the construction of two new VVER-640 power reactors, which are still being developed. They also would be located at Bushehr and completed early in the next century.
The Russians insist the reactors would be used for civilian purposes and would be subject to international inspections. But American officials say the reactors would enable Iran to develop the expertise it needed to launch a clandestine weapons program and could be used by Tehran to mask the illicit purchase of nuclear technology.
The sale of the reactors would be a badly needed boost for Russia's cash-strapped nuclear complex. But whether all of the reactors will be ever be built is also a point of contention.
While Russia is trying to speed up the lagging construction of the first reactor, a senior American official insisted that Iran does not have enough money to bankroll Russia's heady plans for new reactor sales.
'Whether they can get the first one done is iffy, and the chance of them completing the second, third, or fourth is highly unlikely,' the American official said.
He dismissed the statements about new reactor sales by Russia's Atomic Energy Ministry as a 'political reflex' to the American-Ukrainian agreement.
American officials say they are more worried about Iran's ongoing efforts to acquire from the Russians the technology to enrich uranium and separate plutonium from spent fuel.
Still, American officials are worried enough about the reactor sales that they have sought to frustrate the construction of the first reactor, even though it meant angering the Russians just before Gore's meeting with Chernomyrdin.
Friday, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and the Ukrainian foreign minister, Hennadiy Udovenko initialed an accord that blocks Ukraine's state-owned ADA Turboatom from providing turbines for the Russian project.
Kaurov said Russia could build the turbines at a factory near St. Petersburg. But American officials said the plant would have to be retooled first.
The cancellation of the turbine project will mean $45 million in lost sales, according to Ukraine's president, Leonid Kuchma. But in return, Ukraine will be able to buy nuclear fuel from the United States. American officials said that they will help Turboatom find business in the West.
Ukraine is also the third-largest recipient of American foreign aid. It receives $225 million a year. And Ukraine may also profit from new investment and the launching of American payloads in its commercial space launchers.
Under the new agreement, American companies, such as Westinghouse will be able to bid on a $1.2-billion contract to complete two, unfinished Soviet-era reactors.
Ukraine had told Israel it would not allow Turboatom to participate in the Russian project, a pledge the Israelis publicized. But local pressure for jobs made Ukraine waver. The new American-Ukraine accord solidifies the understanding.
Russian officials complained that Washington was applying a double standard in trying to block Russia's reactor deals.
'What the Americans are trying to do is really surprising,' Kaurov said. 'If America could sumit evidence that Iran will not allow international inspections there could be grounds for discussion. But the fact is the United States just does not like Iran.'
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