Saudi Regimes Bows to US and Zionist
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AuthorTopic: Saudi Regimes Bows to US and Zionist
topic by
watcher
4/19/2002 (23:09)
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The Saudi refusal to use the oil weapon as Iran and Iraq have suggested virtually guarantees that the US will continue to follow the dictates of the Zionist lobby. They have nothing to fear from these quislings.

The destruction of the tyrannical Saudi regime is essential if the Arabs are to ever again have a dignified place in the world.




Saudis Will Not Use Oil
Embargo

Friday, April 19 2002 @ 06:35 PM GMT

By PalestineChronicle.com Reporter

MOSCOW: Saudi Arabia will not use 'oil weapon' to
support the Palestinian uprising against the Israeli
occupation. Top Saudi official said during a visit to
Moscow that an oil embargo will not help Palestinians.

The Saudi reaffirmation to its opposition to using an Arab
or Muslim oil embargo to support the Palestinian uprising
against Israel was made by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud
al-Faisal who is currently conducting a visit to Moscow.

He said his country will continue its support of the
Palestinian uprising but does not believe in using oil as a
weapon. He said Saudi Arabia will continue to produce
oil and will 'do what is necessary to keep demand at a
good level.'

He made the remarks in a press conference after
meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir
Putin. He was responding to questions about how Saudi
Arabia - the world's top oil producer - would react to the
30-day oil embargo announced last week by Iraq.

Saudi Arabia believes in using oil as a resource for
development and investment 'not as a tank or a gun,'
he said.

He claimed that oil will provide the resources needed to
sup
reply by
...ALSO...
4/19/2002 (24:18)
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VISIT...(1).. riyadhdaily.com ... (2)... metimes.com/ ..(3).. jordantimes.com ...
reply by
Peccavis
4/19/2002 (24:41)
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I suspect George Bush & Co. has just been bamboozled by the Arabs with this 30-day Iraqi oil embargo. I know it sounds preposterous, but follow me with this one. I've been busy calculating Middle East financial budgets to come to this conclusion.

First, an Iraqi oil embargo will hurt Iraq economically much more than it will hurt the U.S. and Iraq knows this. Everyone knows this, and everyone thinks Saddam is just childish for his 30-day oil embargo. Saddam may be foolish, but he is not stupid.

Second, Saudi Arabia has pledged to boost production to make up for any supply losses to the West by this embargo. Iraq anticipated this.

Third, the conflict in the Middle East and an Iraqi oil embargo has shot the price of crude from $18 per barrel up to $25-28 per barrel. Both Iraq and Saudi Arabia anticipated this (they're smarter than we (Americans) think).

Follow me on this so far?

Saudi Arabia is facing a $12 billion deficit this year (source: U.S. DOE, Jan. 02). This is due to the low oil prices ($17-$18 per barrel post 9/11) compounded by decreased oil production by the decrease in global demand and the increase in exports from Russia. The Saudis (and other OPEC nations) have a fiscal crisis on their hands.

I suspect that during the Arab League Summit (or around this time), the Arabs governments, lead by Saudi Arabia, made a secret agreement with Iraq. The agreement goes as follows...

(1) Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah, Islamic Jihad, et al. will turn up the heat in Israel in the face of the IDF. This will artifically drive up the price of crude. (Of course, I also believe elevated violence in Israel falls into the overall strategy of Sharon - an unintended consequence - but what can you do with a madman?)

(2) Iraq will impose a 30-day oil embargo to protest.

(3) The Saudis will cover the 2 million barrels per day loss by increasing production from 7 mb/d to 9 mb/d. So far, for the first fiscal quarter of 2002, the Saudis have an accumulated loss of $3.5 billion. By increasing production by 2 million barrels per day to cover the Iraqi embargo and selling at the artifically inflated price of $28 for one month, the Saudis will have balanced their 2002 fiscal budget by May, 2002. They will decrease production during Q3 and Q4, but the price will remain around $23-$26 per barrel. The Saudis have just turned a projected $12 billion deficit into a fiscal profit with Saddam's help.

(4) The Saudis will need to repay this fiscal favor to Iraq. When the U.S. decides to launch a military campaign against Iraq, the Saudis will not allow the U.S. to use Saudi land bases to support this military effort (despite the quiet military build-up of U.S. forces inside Saudi Arabia). Thus Saudi Arabia returns the favor to Iraq by thwarting the U.S.-lead overthrow of Saddam.

(5) Saddam remains in power, and at the same time gains brownie points from the Arab public by thumbing his nose at the U.S. from his seemingly foolish oil embargo.

Of course, my analysis and prediction falls apart if the Saudis eventually do support a U.S. invasion against Iraq, but I don't suspect this to happen. Saudi Arabia can publically say something like, 'The U.S. has not provided concrete proof of Iraq's involvement in the 9/11 attacks, nor has Iraq attacked U.S. interests or U.S. citizens. Therefore, Saudi Arabia does not support the United States in attacking Iraq.'

And so the game continues...
reply by
truth
4/19/2002 (24:59)
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Any thoughts on why the saudi economy is in the red by 12 bilion ??( actually this is the 11th year in the red)
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I wish they were smart .. I would settle for honest only even.!
reply by
Peccavis
4/20/2002 (1:17)
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Source: U.S. DOE Country Analysis Brief
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/saudi.html

Excerpt: 'The sharp rebound in world oil prices between early 1999 and September 2001 improved the country's economic outlook greatly, and to some extent removed pressures for major changes, but the sharp decline in oil prices since the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States has thrown Saudi Arabia's economic outlook back into question. For 2002, Saudi Arabia is expected to earn about $49.6 billion in crude oil export revenues, down 17% from the $58.2 billion earned in 2001.'

'For fiscal year 2002, Saudi Arabia is likely to see a significant budget deficit (possibly $12 billion, or 7% of GDP), based on an oil price assumption (for Saudi oil) of about $17 per barrel. This assumes government revenues of $42 billion and expenditures of $54 billion. (Note: according to an analysis by the Saudi American Bank, Saudi Arabia requires an oil price of $22 per barrel with crude oil production of around 8 million bbl/d to balance its budget. This combination of conditions is highly unlikely to be met in 2002.)'

OF COURSE, things have changed SIGNIFICANTLY since this was written (Jan. 2002). Oil prices are up from $18 to $26-$28! And thanks to Saddam, Saudi oil production will boost by 2 million barrels per day!

Who says Palestinian blood hurts all Arabs? Just examine the balance sheets.
reply by
Peccavis
4/20/2002 (1:33)
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Let's see if this works.

Here is my model for the Saudi Arabia oil budget projections for FY 2002. Jan, Feb, & Mar figures are real data. April figures are daily averages. May thru Dec are my projections, but I kept them very conservative.


Balance budget based on $22 bbl, 8 million barrels per day (mbd) production => Avg Revenue = $5.353 billion per month
Revenues and Monthly budgets are in billions of U.S. dollars

------- Price - Prod - Revenue - Budget Balance*
Month - Dubai - mb/d - month --- Monthly - Cumulative
------ ------ ------ - ------ - -------- - ----------
Jan-02 $18.48 - 6.95 - $3.907 - ($1.446) - ($1.446)
Feb-02 $19.02 - 6.90 - $3.992 - ($1.361) - ($2.807)
Mar-02 $22.50 - 7.00 - $4.791 - ($562) --- ($3.370)
Apr-02 $27.00 - 9.00 - $7.391 - $2.038 --- ($1,331)
May-02 $26.00 - 8.50 - $6.722 - $1.369 --- $38
Jun-02 $26.00 - 7.50 - $5.931 - $578 ----- $616
Jul-02 $26.00 - 7.00 - $5.536 - $183 ----- $799
Aug-02 $26.00 - 7.00 - $5.536 - $183 ----- $982
Sep-02 $25.00 - 7.00 - $5.323 - ($30) ---- $952
Oct-02 $25.00 - 7.00 - $5.323 - ($30) ---- $922
Nov-02 $25.00 - 7.00 - $5.323 - ($30) ---- $892
Dec-02 $25.00 - 7.00 - $5.323 - ($30) ---- $862

If this doesn't come out right and you're interested, then email me and I will send you the Excel spreadsheet.
reply by
Peccavis
4/20/2002 (1:43)
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Arggggg! I messed up the table above. Email me if you want the table.
reply by
William
4/20/2002 (3:28)
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Peccavis,
Your analysis is excellent. I've heard the individual numbers, but haven't thought about putting them together as you have. Particularly the implication of the fact that the Gulf States are producing far less than their share of world oil reserves. I hope to hear more of your inciteful and to my knowledge, original opinion.
reply by
watcher
4/20/2002 (9:37)
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An interesting scenario.

reply by
watcher
4/21/2002 (1:50)
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We hear so often about peaceful Arab villages that were overrun by 'Zionist Forces' and emptied of their peaceful inhabitants. In truth, Deir Yassin served as a center of weapons trafficking during the many violent Palestinian Arab outbreaks. Deir Yassin and other peaceful Arab villages lay along roads traveled by Jews... in particular, the roads leading into Jerusalem. As Jewish traffic passed by, some of these peaceful Arabs from the peaceful villages would slice, dice and other wise mutilate ambushed Jewish travelers. Operation Nachshon was launched on April 6, 1948 with the aim of opening up the road to Jerusalem. The village of Deir Yassin was included on the list of Arab villages to be occupied as part of that operation.

There was a massacre of Jews on April 1, 1948... Three Days BEFORE Deir Yassin!

Some woman were raped and murdered. Men often had their genitals cut off and jammed into their mouths! Most were simply dragged from their vehicles and then shot, knifed or beaten to death with rocks... EXACTLY what is happening NOW throughout Judea/Samaria (the 'West Bank') and the Gaza Strip. Obviously killing Jews has been a time-honored tradition going back to the 1880s when other Jews died at the hands of these peaceful Arabs' grandparents... and going forward to the brutal massacre of Israeli reservists (click HERE for details) in late 2000 at the hands of their grandchildren! And if you add to these road massacres all the other sporadic attacks and organized 'Arab Revolts' against Jews from the 1880s leading up to Jewish statehood in 1948, the peaceful Arabs of Palestine were hardly peaceful at all!

Between 1947 & 1948, 600 noncombatants and women, were captured by the Palestinian Arabs.After the war ended, only ONE made it back alive. This when they had a prisoner exchange.

All the 599 who did not make it back were slaughtered amid scenes of gang rape, sodomy and worse. They were dismembered, decapitated, mutilated and then photographed.



Deir Yassin was one of those peaceful Arab villages that lay along the road to Jerusalem. The Jews had no choice but to remove this threat! The attack upon Deir Yassin has NEVER been forgotten by the Arabs. Even today, more than fifty years later, the Deir Yassin Memorial Committee still organizes vigils throughout the world to continue festering this wound to their pride. What makes this special to the Arabs is that it is the ONLY documented case of a Jewish massacre!!! We, however, prefer to call it was it REALLY is.... a 'Pay Back!' And when other peaceful Arabs of Palestine heard that Jews were capable of paying them back in full massacre-for-massacre, there was mass panic as these peaceful Arabs fled for neighboring Arab territories.

Present and future leaders of Israel should take note from this that it's sometimes better to forego formal negotiations and, instead, simply 'speak THEIR language!' By the way, four days AFTER Deir Yassin, the Arabs massacred a bus convoy of 78 Jewish doctors and nurses heading up Mt. Scopus to the Hadassah Hospital.

For the duration of the first Arab-Israeli War (Israel's War of Independence 1948-9), 600 Jewish noncombatants were captured by Palestinian Arabs. After the war ended, only ONE made it back alive. That was when there was a post-war prisoner exchange. All the 599 who did not make it back were slaughtered amid scenes of gang rape, sodomy, dismemberment and worse. And THESE are the same poor Palestinian refugees whom the American press corps (CNN in particular) and press coverage throughout the world hold up as innocent Palestinians being brutalized by Israel.
reply by
carol
4/21/2002 (4:43)
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Wasn't it the British who made the decision to divide palestine. They must have known about this history of the area. What were they thinking?