topic by
Peacenik
5/14/2002 (20:31) |
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Foreign Minister Shimon Peres is proposing that Israel negotiate an agreement or understanding with the 'Quartet' - the U.S., European Union, UN, and Russia - on conditions for a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has meanwhile eased his demands for full Palestinian Authority reforms before any negotiations.
Peres believes Israel should make a supreme effort to forge an agreement with the Quartet that would provide Israel with international guarantees even if the Palestinians said no to a proposed agreement. This would solve the problem of the 'negotiating partner' because the international community would provide credibility, irrespective of what happened on the Palestinian side.
Up to now Peres has been committed to direct negotiations with the Palestinians, with the international community providing assistance. He now believes the Quartet is tilting toward greater involvement in the region because of of fears of proliferating terror, missiles, and nonconventional weapons.
Peres believes broad support from the international community for negotiations is preferable to a single mediating country or body, since an exclusive role opens the way for one or the other international groups to step in on behalf of the other side. Peres foresees an agreement based on the following principles:
l Israel would be required to recognize a Palestinian state, evacuate the territories and cease settlements. At the next stage, the settlements would be evacuated or other arrangements made for them.
l The Palestinians would be required to enforce a cease-fire, concentrate all security and weaponry in the hands of one agency, cease incitement, and enter negotiations on the understanding that they must give up their demands for refugees to return to Israel.
On the Palestinian side, Abu Mazen's associates are working on a similar idea for a dialogue with the Quartet to replace direct negotiations with Israel.
Peres believes Israel will not be able to force Yasser Arafat out or to find a more convenient negotiating partner, and he strongly doubts Saudi Arabia will be able to bring a change in the Palestinian leadership.
Over the weekend Peres met in Rome with Arafat's financial advisor and confidante Muhamed Rashid, who emphasized there is no replacement for Arafat, and no other leader would have the broad public support he enjoys. Rashid warned Europeans that toppling Arafat would result in more extreme leaders in his place.
The Palestinian reform plan is now the focus of the diplomatic discussions in the area, and was discussed yesterday by the Quartet's representatives in the region at a meeting in Jerusalem. The emissaries are working on a 'menu' of reforms to be given to Arafat, from which he could choose those steps convenient for him without shocking the entire Palestinian establishment. Some Quartet members suggested they go together with Arafat but the Americans objected, saying they don't want to be too directly involved in domestic Palestinian affairs and needed more instructions from Washington.
The Americans are in a holding pattern, postponing deeper involvement in the diplomatic process. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is planning a trip to the region in mid-June, but meanwhile is focused on the summit with Russia, a Nato conference, and a G-8 summit. But the administration is working on ideas for Palestinian reforms, and the regional peace conference, awaiting ideas from the sides for progress.
Peres only accepts some of the reform ideas, believing it is important to make changes in n
the Palestinian financial structure to guarantee transparency. He believes elections now would only postpone negotiations and result in the same elected officials, or more extreme officials. He also opposes reforms as a precondition for negotiations, as suggested until now by Sharon.
But Sharon has loosened his demand somewhat and no longer expects the political negotiations to begin only after the reforms are completed. He wants changes in the PA in security (unified security agencies), economics (transparency in PA expenditures), the legal system (a properly run court system and rule of law), and social change (an end to the incitement and peace education for the next generation). Sharon's latest proposed path to negotiations includes two alternatives:
l If Arafat is out of office, Israel can move forward faster.
l If the terror, incitement and violence ceases, the PA makes a '100 percent effort' to prevent terror, and begins the reform process, Israel will agree to begin political dialogue parallel to the changes being made in the PA.
There are discrepancies on the Israeli side, about what the reforms would mean. Sharon sees it as a way to get Arafat out of the way, perhaps by kicking him upstairs to a symbolic role. Peres regards 'unifying the security services' as a step that would strengthen the central authority, meaning Arafat. He favors dismantling all the militias and armed groups in the territories and putting all the power and authority in the hands of a single state security serviced. But he doesn't care if the Palestinians maintain a dozen security services, as long as they are run by a single command.
Defense Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer and other defense establishment policy makers believe a unified security service would work to weaken Arafat's centralized control. Ben-Eliezer does not believe the Palestinians are ripe for a democratic process but believes a powerful security leader could be a 'logical partner' for dialogue, since they would be looking forward (for Palestinian welfare), rather than backward (to the right of return).
He meanwhile is sticking to his belief that Muhamed Dahlan of the Gaza Preventive Security services could manage all of Gaza, and would eliminate the terrorist infrastructure there. Dahlan yesterday denied reports earlier this week that he had sent his family abroad.
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