topic by
someone
6/4/2002 (22:58) |
|
The US game plan
By Amir Mateen
So what is the United States up to? The biggest concern that troubles the minds of Pakistanis is the American game plan in the ongoing brinkmanship with India. They realise that the battle of nerves with India will be ultimately decided not in the sands of Rajasthan or the vales of Kashmir but in the District of Columbia. They can deal with India but it is Washington that they are worried about.
Small wonder that the visits of US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage this week are being eyed jaundicely. The two US heavyweights may find the mistrust about the American agenda, the hidden and not-so-hidden, at its all-time high. The conflicting signals from the US - Washington's ill-timed military exercises with New Delhi and President W Bush's thundering Pakistan to match its words with deeds -- has the Pakistanis almost paranoid.
There are fears galore, some of them bordering on the ridiculous. One comes across people with a historical bent complaining about the perpetual American betrayals. Another set of the worried lot frets about a possible American conspiracy to take out the only nuclear programme in the Islamic world. Some lament about Israeli connivance with India in striking down our missiles and nuclear bombs. Others explain with graphic details how the Americans have infiltrated their agents in our Cabinet, army and strategic institutions. Still others are worried about the American troops stationed in Jacobabad who might just do something,
somewhere, sometime.
These gloomsters are found not just among the ordinary folk but have among their ranks luminaries like the good old Qazi Hussain Ahmad and that epitome of Pakistani genius, former Army Chief, General (retd) Mirza Aslam Beg (Who by the way also prophesised about Iraqi victory in the Gulf war and Afghanistan becoming another Vietnam for the Americans) Having served in Washin gton for three years as the correspondent of The News, I have to confess that I could not gain access to the CIA basement where they keep such files. I have no way of either endorsing or denying such views.
But one doesn't have to be a genius to read the American game plan in the current conflict. It's pretty obvious and has been spelt out by a person no less than President Bush himself. He has asked Pakistan in no uncertain terms 'to do more' in stopping the infiltration into occupied Kashmir. US Secretary of State, Collin Powell reiterated the theme while toeing the Indian accusation that he had indications of Pakistan's not stopping the infiltration.
The two envoys are being sent to hammer down the American message even more clearly. Both of them have a reputation for their tenacity and straight talk. A former weightlifter that he is, Armitage is adept in 'jerking' Pakistan into the right kind of action. He proved his skills when he framed that famous 'friend or foe' query to Islamabad before starting the war in Afghanistan. Rumsfeld too is revered in Washington circles for his peculiar brand of 'no-nonsense diplomacy.'
The duo is being sent to do India's dirty job. Indian motives have been best surmised by known US strategist Stephen Cohen recently. India, he says, is playing the game of chicken with Pakistan and wants Washington
to steer it away at the last minute. So the onus of delivering and doing is on Pakistan. But the dialectical question remains as to how much more be 'more' and, conversely, how less is 'less.' Beneath this misty war of semantics lurk the lives of about millions of people who have no idea what this whole controversy is about. We don't know if the infiltration across the line of control was stopped after January 12. We have no way of verifying Indian claim that it was not stopped or the Pakistani stance that Islamabad has not violated its commitment to the world. It's India's word against Pakistan. Also, we have no information as to how the
Americans have reached the conclusion, as spelt out by former US Adviser Dennis Kux, that Pakistan renewed infiltration across the LoC somewhere between March and April. Maybe it was a human error or
Indian propaganda, misunderstanding or even a misjudgement of the complex situation that the conflict represents. Maybe not.
In any case, this looks like a fight among the ISI, RAW and the CIA. Why can't these agencies settle it out among them and save the people from the horrors of a possible war. We the people have the right to know as
too much is at stake. We don't want to risk our lives just because somebody erred somewhere. The whole issue needs to be made public and let all parties, including the United States, spill their beans. It's insane to let the whole region annihilate on an issue that is being discussed in closed-door meetings.
Mr Kux, who recently authored a best-seller on Pakistan, was quite blunt about the reasons for the Americans bending Pakistan more than others. It's just that they believe Islamabad has much more room to manoeuvre
and all that debate about national consensus on Kashmir is nothing but crap. For two decades, the Americans were sold the same line about Afghanistan. Every time Washington asked Pakistan to dissociate itself from Taliban, Islamabad took refuge behind the argument of there being a national consensus on the Afghan policy that could not be breached. And when they had to stage a U-turn on Afghanistan, they just went ahead
and did it. And not a leaf got ruffled in the whole of Islamabad.
So, it should not be surprising that the Americans are sending the same guy, this time to 'lift the weight' of another national consensus. The goal post keeps moving and we don't know where it might stop. While there
may still be hidden part of the agenda, one can safely speculate about things that the Americans don't want. A war in South Asia is definitely one of them. But they would not like India to emerge out of this crisis as
less than a victorious party, lest this might encourage the Pakistanis to do things that they don't approve of. How are they going to do it is yet be seen. More importantly, whether the political leadership in Pakistan
can afford to sustain the pressure of this 'ultimate solution.'
|
|