topic by
John Calvin
2/26/2002 (19:46) |
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The Division of Afghanistan Begins
A United Nations official said Feb. 19 that some 20,000 people,
mostly Pashtuns, have been forced to flee northern Afghanistan
under threat of persecution since the beginning of the year.
Violence against Pushtuns began in late December, according to
anecdotal reports, though the U.N. implied the pace has increased
substantially since early February.
Ethnic Pushtuns formed the core of the Taliban movement that once
controlled most of Afghanistan. Western media reports frame the
violence against Pushtuns as reprisal for years of Taliban
brutality, but there is likely more to the story. Removing the
Pushtun population from northern Afghanistan is a way to
consolidate power and squelch potential rebellion against the
ruling warlords before it happens. It also is a big step in
consolidating the power of regional warlords, thus decreasing the
influence of Afghanistan's fledgling central government and
contributing to the de facto partitioning of the country.
A weakened central government will become increasingly irrelevant
as outside powers choose to do business with local warlords or
their external sponsors, such as Iran, Pakistan and Uzbekistan. A
neutered regime in Kabul also would be increasingly ignored by
the international aid community, which would mean a severe blow
to any hopes of economic revival in Afghanistan.
Pushtuns occupy a number of pockets in northern Afghanistan,
especially in the provinces of Kunduz, Baghlan and Takhar.
Several warlords -- including ethnic Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid
Dostum, ethnic Hazara leader Mohammad Mohaqiq and ethnic Tajik
leader Ustad Atta Mohammad -- control the area and are allied in
a loose security pact.
Witnesses cited by the Boston Globe claim that members of
Dostum's 3,000-man army, Junbish-e-Millie, are raping and looting
in Pushtun villages. Ethnic Hazaras, which comprise perhaps the
second-largest armed presence in the north, appear to be
complicit if not actively participating in the incidents. Mobs
attacked several Pushtun residences in Balkh province in
November, according to Pushtun refugees interviewed by the
Associated Press. Balkh province is controlled by the Hezb-e-
Wahadat, a Hazara group that has more than 6,000 fighters across
northern Afghanistan.
On the individual level, the violence may indeed represent
reprisals for acts committed under Taliban rule, but there is
likely a larger goal as well. Removing the Pushtuns will
eliminate pockets of potential resistance to local warlords.
Uzbeks and Tajiks don't have to think back very far to remember
the danger posed by pockets of ethnic minorities. Some of the
toughest fighting in the U.S.-led war against the Taliban was in
the northern city of Kunduz, where the Pushtun-heavy population
fiercely resisted Uzbek and Tajik forces.
Despite the horrific details, the latest wave of violence against
Pushtuns may not lead directly to a larger ethnic conflict in
Afghanistan. In the near term, it may even increase stability in
the north by removing a potential flashpoint.
The larger danger is that removing the Pushtuns marks only the
beginning of inter-ethnic struggle, and that Uzbeks, Hazaras and
Tajiks will turn against each other as each attempts to assert
control over northern Afghanistan. Hints of this have already
emerged, with Uzbek and Tajik factions skirmishing over parts of
Mazar-i-Sharif in recent weeks.
The segmentation of Afghanistan along mainly ethnic lines may
reduce the number of low-scale hostilities, but it also may
increase the wrangling between power centers such as Mazar-i-
Sharif, Herat and Kandahar. It will also make cross-regional
activities, ranging from aid work to economic plans to gas
pipelines, much more difficult.
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