Muktada Sadr is playing a dangerous political game but he may in the end come out on top or become a historic martyr with hard to predict consequences. Sadr may well have decided at this point to either defy the Americans, or be arrested by them. In either case this may further his long-term political ends. All the more so as he knows that in a few months, with a new Iraqi face put on the American occupation, pressures to release him will be considerable. This whole strategy may well be his way of propelling himself to power before he is really old enough or senior enough to command it in any other way. It is now becoming a major test of wills, strategies and fortunes.