Fear, Desperation, Preparations..But No Longer Much Hope

MID-EAST REALITIES © - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 6/27: The Middle East region totters now between further repression and oppression, terrorism and war. The outcome in the short term is indeterminate of course. But the winds and directions are clear; however much camaflouged by the politicians and the usually gullible mass media.

The Israelis are more determined than ever to either subjugate or co-opt the Palestinians. They pursue these means of course through brutal repression and military occupation; means that co-optation could further mask and disguise (the real goal) but not really change. They desperately tried the later after the Gulf War and in order to end the first Intifada; but couldn't bring about the result they wanted at Camp David last year; just as many experts had predicted. No matter how much they twisted and bribed the Arafat Regime, it simply lacked the credibility and strength to do what it was ordered to do no matter how internally co-opted and corrupt it has always been.

The Arab regimes, especially the Hashemites and the al-Sauds, more desperately than ever are battling to survive. The Americans -- and to a much lesser extent the Europeans -- are their patrons and protectors; and of course they must pay a considerable price for such. So too the Egyptians; but Egypt is not a royal family it is a clique of personalities centered around a strong Army now coupled with a small business elite that personally benefits from the American connection.

As for the Palestinians, their predicament is grave. While the people more desperately than ever want an end to their bondage, some semblance of justice, and of course real independence; they know that their situation is not one in which they can expect any of these results any time soon. The regime that oppresses them has in fact sold and squandered away many of their rights as well as much of their territory, actually helping create today's apartheid-like predicament. The Palestinian people are today essentially doubly occupied -- their "autonomous population centers" and Gaza practically prisons with the Palestinian "Authority" the first layer of control; the Israeli Army the outer surrounding layer (with the Shinbet and CIA connecting the two)..

As for the Arafat Authority, like the other "clients regimes" of the region it too is primarily interested in its own survival and huge payments. It too is a small, corrupt, self-centered clique whose key members have personally benefited greatly with the money suitcases of PLO days and the V.I.P. rewards that flowed from signing Oslo. The Israelis, as well as the Americans, as well as the above mentioned Arab regimes, have all conspired since the Gulf War and Intifada I to create some kind of self-perpetuating "Palestinian regime" to mirror how the rest of the surrounding Arab populations are held in check.

Secretary of State, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Colin Powell leaves today for the the region, well-briefed yesterday by Prime Minister, former head of the Army, General Ariel Sharon. The region is arming at an escalating pace -- good of course for the American war industries who are by far the largest suppliers of arms to the area -- and preparations for conflict are escalating; even as the politicians play the hypnotizing "peace process" and "even-handedness" tunes that amazingly are still listened to by many.

Powell is not really going to see the Palestinians -- that's just the public facade. His real business is in Cairo, Amman, and Riyadh.

There he will instruct the client regimes how the game is going to be played, what the Israelis are likely to do to the Palestinians as soon as Sharon gets the excuse he so desperately is maneuvering for. Powell will "explain" how the regimes are going to have to play ball by the American rules behind-the-scenes, no matter what might be said in public or what gestures might be made to assuage public opinion. And Powell will "explain" that this is really their only sound choice in the future now ahead as otherwise they too may become victims of the fire that is yet to come.

Oh yes, by way of ps, a few hundred Muslims and a scattered few followers were outside the White House yesterday afternoon holding a noisy and energetic demonstration judged by the past. Their leaders, the "client organizations" sponsored by these very same "client regimes", even managed this time to get themselves very peacefully arrested in a way that appeared all too pre-arranged with the police, or so it seemed. Quite possibly the embarrassments of repeatedly saying they would do so, and then never actually doing so, coupled with growing pressures from the grassroots, caused them this time to actually do it this time; albeit in the most peaceful and compliant of ways.

But the real tests are now to come. Why did only a couple of leaders sit down and then walk calmly to the paddy wagon? Why did they not call on their followers to do the same -- many seemed ready? Why did they not have any allies with them -- there are so many others including Jews and Israelis who would have responded to such a call and that really would have been far more significant?

And most of all, are they in fact going to follow up this largely photo opportunity yesterday -- something they are so well-known for -- by repeating the scene with greater numbers every week as today's historical situation cries out for; are they going to call for Muslims and people of conscience to rise up in peaceful civil disobedience protest around the country as is urgently needed; are they going to call out to those in the Arab world to insist that their own governments break relations with Israel, suspend Israel from the U.N. General Assembly, and defensively arms themselves so that the Israelis will be deterred from doing more of what they have done in the past and are threatening to further escalate?

This is no time to be lulled into believing the even thedeceptive and dishonest "peace process" is back. Indeed it was always a "domination process"; and it was always a desperate gamble by the Israelis and the Americans that they could still contain the forces in the region who are themselves increasingly desperate to throw off the shackles that so terribly repress and imprison them. And not only in the once historic Holy Land of Palestine.