REGIONAL WAR POSSIBILITIES
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REGIONAL WAR POSSIBILITIES

July 24, 2001

"Ceasefire is a house of cards"

"The prospects for peace appear very bleak indeed."
US Spending Billions Against Terrorism Which Could Lead to "Disintegration" of US

MID-EAST REALITIES - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 7/24: The following two articles are from publications associated with Janes Intelligence Weekly in the U.K. But what's looked at here are the short-term implications and the correct assessment that the very weak and in most cases U.S.-controlled Arab "client regimes" in the region will find one way or another to avoid any military clashes with the vastly superior Israelis. What's not examined here are the mid and long term implications of what is happening today in the Middle East region. From the 1967 war was born the PLO. From the 1973 war the regional arms race greatly escalated after the first "nuclear alert" and now is entering a ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction phase. From the 1982 war was born Hezbollah. From the Intifada and the co-optation of the PLO was born Hamas and the growth of the suicide bomber phenomena. And from the Camp David and "Peace Process" fiascos was born the "Right of Return" movement.

Then continue reading to see just what American officials are now warning could happen if a biotech "terrorist attack" does succeed in the USA -- the "disintegration" of American society. And as an article in yesterday's Washington Post outlines, the U.S. is already spending billions as it moves to become "fortress America" on land, as well as in space to come.

WILL THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT SPREAD?

Foreign Report - 24 July 2001: A CONFIDENTIAL analysis of the possibility that the current conflict between Israel and the Palestinians could spread has been produced by the outgoing chief of research of the military intelligence service (Aman), Brigadier-General Amos Gilad.

Here are some highlights.

Aman's research department reckons that the chance that the Intifada might turn into a regional war is slim. However, if the armed forces implement an attack against the Palestinians, as some generals are recommending, the report predicts that "certain military steps will be taken by Arab countries in order to deter the Israeli army and mainly to calm down the mob".

Egypt: According to Aman, the new general secretary of the Arab League, Amro Moussa, a former Egyptian foreign minister, is well-known for his anti Israeli stance. He would co-ordinate the implementation of Arab League agreements to defend an Arab sister attacked by Israel. The Arabs see the Palestinian Authority as an Arab independent state. Aman believes that the Egyptian 3rd Army will cross the Suez canal and move into the Sinai peninsula in a violation of the peace agreement with Israel. Such a move would force the Israelis to send at least two armoured divisions to defend Israel's southern border. This is still not a war between Israel and Egypt, but it is not far off.

Jordan: Aman does not expect Jordan to attack Israel. However, if the Israelis attacked the Palestinians, Jordan would put its developing relationship with the Jewish state in the deep freeze. Jordan might allow some Iraqi units to enter and form bases there. Jordan may even accept the temporary presence of an Iraqi expeditionary force as it did in 1967 and 1973.

Syria: Aman's report asserts that Syria does not want to be involved in a war with Israel. However, Aman warns that an Israeli military attack on the Palestinians will force Hizbullah to implement its promise to attack northern Israel. That would be answered by Israeli Air Force retaliation on Syrian targets in Lebanon. Such an Israeli attack would provoke a larger one from Syria. Aman claims that Syria tested a Scud missile carrying a chemical warhead in the Syrian desert three weeks ago as a warning to Israel.

Europe: After an Israeli assault on the Palestinians, Israeli and American interests all over the world would be targeted. So far, the Intifada has not reached Europe. Once the Palestinians are attacked, however, it will.

AN ILLUSORY CEASEFIRE

With all the signs pointing to a further escalation of the crisis in the Middle East, JID's regional correspondent has sent this report, which reveals the changing strategies of both the Israelis and the Palestinians. The prospects for peace appear very bleak indeed.

Intelligence Digest - 06 July 2001: Whether one marks the end of the US-brokered Palestinian-Israeli 'ceasefire' which began on 13 June with Israel's assassination of three Palestinians late on Sunday night or with the shooting of one Israeli and the deaths of two others which followed, it seems clear that this particular house of cards is on the brink of collaspe.

While the Israeli security cabinet met on Tuesday morning to reassess its plans, the press reported that no significant changes were made in defence strategy. But while there may be no Israeli bombing raid on the immediate horizon, there are notable signs that both Palestinian and Israeli leaders have effectively given up attempts to maintain the increasingly illusory ceasefire.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat called the assassination of three men, one of them the Islamic Jihad activist Muhammed Bisharat, by Israeli helicopter gunships "a flagrant violation of the ceasefire". The midnight shelling of the car in which the three men were travelling is the first clear Israeli assassination since the government of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon declared over a month ago that it would stop all attacks not in self-defence.

Another Palestinian man was killed under suspicious circumstances in the centre of the West Bank town of Nablus last week. The activist, from Arafat's own Fateh faction, died when a bomb exploded in the public telephone he was using. Israel has denied any involvement in that killing.

Palestinian analysts are warning that Sunday's assassinations may mark the end of a tacit understanding between the Palestinian leadership and the Islamic hardline factions. After a suicide bombing on 1 June at a Tel Aviv nightclub that killed 22 Israelis, many of them teenagers, Arafat - recognising he was in danger of losing international support and under intense pressure from the USA - declared a ceasefire and set about the business of convincing the Islamic militants that bombings inside Israel could only hurt the Palestinian cause at this stage.

West Bank Hamas political leader Hasan Yusef said in a recent interview that he was called in by Palestinian intelligence and asked to observe the Palestinian call for an end to bombings. He said then that Hamas would "give Israel one more chance".

Other officials of Islamic groups who publicly challenged the decision were detained briefly by Arafat's Palestinian security service. The absence of operations inside Israel since that time has revealed the success of Arafat's deal.

Now, however, Israel has given Islamist military wings the excuse they need to resume operations.

US LAWMAKERS WARNED OF "DARK WINTER" IN CASE OF BIOTERRORIST ATTACK

WASHINGTON, July 23 (AFP) - A chilling scenario of possible national collapse was presented Monday to US lawmakers by a group of prominent security experts, who warned that a biological terrorist attack on US soil could bring the country to the brink of disintegration.

The panel, which included former deputy secretary of defense John Hamre, Oklahoma governor Frank Keating and former senator Sam Nunn, presented their conclusions after holding a two-day exercise code-named "Dark Winter," which featured a computer-simulated bioterrorist attack on three US states.

Members of the House Subcommittee on National Security closely listened as participants painted a picture of the world's most powerful nation descending into chaos in a matter of several weeks.

The game starts with a brief television report that about two dozen people checked into an Oklahoma City hospital with an unidentified illness. Doctors soon find the patients have smallpox, a highly contagious and deadly disease unseen in the United States since 1949.

Similar smallpox cases are reported in Pennsylvania and Georgia. By day six, 300 Americans are dead and 2,000 others are infected. Cases of smallpox are reported in Mexico, Canada and Britain, according to the scenario.

Meanwhile the US heath system is overwhelmed, the 12 million doses of smallpox vaccine quickly disappear, schools nationwide are forced to close, and public gatherings are limited due to fear of contagion.

Droves of Oklahomans anxious to flee stream toward Texas -- but the Texas governor, eager to protect his own residents, closes the border and deploys the state National Guard. Shots are fired.

As the standoff between Texans and Oklahomans deepens, a rift opens between federal and local authorities. Members of the US National Security Council suggest "nationalizing" the national guard, while state governors insist on keeping the local troops under their control.

On day 12 of the scenario, when the death toll reaches 1,000, interstate commerce grinds to a halt and stock trading is suspended. Demonstrations demanding more smallpox vaccines turn into riots. The United Nations moves its headquarters from New York to Geneva, Switzerland.

Less than two months after the outbreak, when the number of dead reach one million and three million more are infected, the president, played in the exercise by Nunn, gathers his top aide to considers imposing marshal law.

Dead silence reigned in the hearing room as Hamre and Nunn presented their findings with the help of colorful "emergency newscasts" prepared by the nation's leading television broadcasters, who also took part in the exercise, which took place at Andrews Air Force Base outside Washington, D.C. in June.

"I think we felt it would cripple the United States if it occurred," Hamre said.

"We though we were really gathering together to talk about the mechanics of government," Hamre said. "What we ended up doing is thinking how we save democracy in America."

To Republican Congressman Benjamin Gilman, scenarios like this no longer belong to the realm of science fiction.

"Sadly, events of the last few years, with bombings ... in New York, Oklahoma City, have transformed the bioterrorism debate from the question of 'if' to the seeming inevitability of 'when," he said.

Nunn, who had sat on the Senate Armed Services Committee for more than two decades, said the exercise raised more questions than answers. If there is only one dose of smallpox vaccine for every 23 Americans, whom do you vaccinate? he asked.

"Do you seize hotels and convert them to hospitals? Do you close borders and block all travel? What level of force do you use to keep someone sick with smallpox in isolation?" he asked.

No clear answer was offered by those present.

U.S. SPENT $3 BILLION TO PROTECT EMBASSIES

As Terrorist Threats Rise, Powell Asks for $1.3 Billion More to Bolster Security

By Vernon Loeb

[Washington Post - Monday, July 23, 2001; Page A20] Since terrorist bombs destroyed two U.S. embassies in East Africa nearly three years ago, the State Department has spent $3 billion on security initiatives that include shatter-proof windows, high-tech screening devices and plainclothes surveillance teams at embassies around the world.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell is proposing an additional $1.3 billion for even more security upgrades in the coming fiscal year as the number of intelligence reports on possible terrorist threats have grown higher than ever.

Last week, the State Department, citing a communications intercept, warned of a possible imminent terrorist attack in the Arabian Peninsula. Last month, U.S. officials ordered military forces in the Persian Gulf on the highest state of alert because of threats linked to Saudi extremist Osama bin Laden. The embassy in Yemen has been closed to the public for the past month, despite the recent arrest of nine suspected terrorists.

Worldwide, more than 70 embassies have been closed temporarily since terrorists linked to bin Laden detonated nearly simultaneous truck bombs outside the embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Aug. 7, 1998, killing 224 and wounding 4,600.

Suspected terrorists have become so bold and sophisticated, U.S. counterterrorism officials say, that it is now common for them to walk into U.S. embassies and pose as informants to assess security measures.

But State Department officials insist that an array of new security measures have deterred terrorist bombers and produced a vastly improved security consciousness on the part of U.S. diplomats.

"What really matters is the attitude of people toward security -- and the view that 'it will never happen to me' is gone," said Undersecretary of State Marc I. Grossman. "That's a big force multiplier. You can call that a defensive crouch -- but I don't think so. It shows we value the people working here."

One result of the new emphasis on security is that U.S. embassies increasingly resemble fortresses, set back from the street and surrounded by jersey barricades and imposing perimeter walls.

The embassy in Amman, Jordan, for example, is removed from every nearby building and surrounded by essentially three fortifications -- a ring of jersey barriers in the public roadway that runs in front of the building, an outer wall and an inner wall that surround it.

The embassy in Saudi Arabia is about 15 minutes from downtown Riyadh, in the middle of the "diplomatic quarter" -- a ghetto for embassies where entrances and exits are closely watched, particularly at night. There are separate guards and roadblocks on the streets leading into the area where American personnel live.

The embassies in Kuwait and Yemen follow a similar general layout, with outside security fences perhaps 50 yards or more from the actual embassy buildings.

Less visible are new counter-surveillance teams, staffed by foreign nationals, operating round-the-clock at virtually every embassy in the world. The teams watch for suspicious vehicles circling embassies, individuals taking photographs and other signs that U.S. facilities are under surveillance.

The counter-surveillance program was created by David G. Carpenter, a former high-ranking Secret Service official responsible for the president's security detail, who became assistant secretary of state for diplomatic security immediately after the embassy bombings in 1998.

"It's surveillance on the perimeter of our facilities -- a block, two blocks, three blocks in some instances," said Carpenter, who brought with him a belief that he could not protect those inside the walls of an embassy "without eyes and ears outside the walls."

Daily reports filed by the counter-surveillance teams combined with video produced by cameras that have been installed at most embassies give State Department security officers -- whose numbers will have increased by almost 50 percent by the end of fiscal 2002 -- the ability to assess the reliability of threat reports coming into embassies.

Last year, Carpenter said, the department investigated about 800 reports of surveillance or other suspicious activities on the perimeter of U.S. embassies.

"We try to run all of them to ground, establishing what made these people come and what they're doing there," Carpenter said. "We look at every threat as if this could be the one. You can't allow yourself to think, this is just another one of these" bogus tips.

But even with all the new security measures, Carpenter said, emergency action committees headed by ambassadors at every embassy are encouraged to temporarily shut down operations and review security precautions if credible intelligence exists to suggest that an attack may be imminent.

Yemen remains closed, except for limited consular functions, precisely because of just such hard intelligence, even though the facility in Sanaa is one of the first embassies to have been built to standards defined by a review panel on embassy security headed by retired Adm. Bobby Ray Inman in the mid-1980s after the bombing of the U.S. embassy in Beirut.

More than 80 percent of the State Department's 260 embassies and consulates still do not meet those standards, particularly the requirement for 100-foot setbacks from roadways.

But part of the $3 billion appropriated for security upgrades since 1998 has gone toward the purchase of land to broaden a defensive perimeter around embassies. In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the State Department recently bought a gas station beside the embassy to deny would-be terrorists a possible staging ground for a truck bomb attack.

Jane C. Loeffler, author of a recent book, "The Architecture of Diplomacy," said implementation of the Inman standards and other security measures have served to isolate U.S. diplomatic missions from foreigners.

"Traditionally, our diplomats have wanted to be accessible, and our embassies have been prominently placed in foreign capitals," she said. "In order to do their work, they would have to be part of the community. The situation in which they find themselves increasingly isolated is definitely not in the interest of what we call diplomacy -- and what we see as the American image of a country that's open."

But current and former State Department officials deny that fortifying U.S. embassies with new security measures has created a fortress mentality in which diplomats decline to interact with foreign nationals out of concern for their safety.

"It's just not true -- and I've been in two embassies where we've proven it's not true," said Edward S. Walker Jr., who served as ambassador in Cairo and Tel Aviv before becoming assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the Clinton administration.

Far from a sign of weakness or a victory for bin Laden, Walker and other officials describe the layers of security at embassies as part of a new resolve to do what it takes to operate in spite of bin Laden's threats.

Closing an embassy for a day or two or putting troops on high alert should not be seen as victories for bin Laden, Grossman said. "The victory for bin Laden," he said, "is dead bodies."

Wyche Fowler Jr., a former U.S. senator from Georgia who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the Clinton administration, said he was a strong supporter of new security measures and did not believe they impeded the diplomatic mission.

What does seem to be lacking from the State Department's response to threats and attacks by terrorists, however, is any consideration "of why people want to do us harm, why they want to bomb us."

"Until that question is addressed," Fowler said, "you have to take every precaution possible to protect the lives of Americans who are abroad."


July 2001


Magazine



DISASTEROUS ARAB-AMERICAN AFFAIRS IN WASHINGTON-PART 1
(July 31, 2001)
The Arabs are so weak in the Middle East and in the world for reasons that go deep into history and culture. This isn't a genetic matter, it's the way they are politically and socially organized in "modern times" that creates an absurd situation whereby a small resourceless country like Israel can dominate some 23 Arab countries with a population nearly as large as the United States.

IMPRISONED, TRAPPED, AND UNPREPARED BY ARAFAT
(July 31, 2001)
Arafat has once again trapped and imprisoned his own people -- keep reading. Wherever he has set up his headquarters corruption, repression, nepotism, and scandal have followed. And always these realities of what we have termed the "Arafat regime" are exploited to further fracture and weaken the Palestinian people -- a people whose basic claim to independence, "return", and reparations should at this point be unassailable.

DECEPTIVE AND OUT OF FOCUS REPORTS
(July 30, 2001)
About that report published "in full" in the Saudi Royal Family London newspaper Al-Hayat over the weekend and then, it now appears erroneously, picked up by Israel's top newspaper Ha'aretz. We already mentioned that the whole thing seemed suspicious. And sure enough with the Monday dawn of a new week and a little fast checking it seems the author, long-time military analysis and close CIA confidant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Anthony Cordesman, says he didn't write it and the whole thing looks like a set-up.

AMERICAN STUDY: ISRAEL WOULD BE UNABLE TO REPEL ALL-OUT ARAB ATTACK
(July 30, 2001)
The report in Saturday's Ha'aretz is not up to their usual standards as names are misspelled and context missing -- it appears to be a journalistic quickie. But even so, and though the Israelis aren't going to admit it, they are becoming more nervous and insecure about their future. And among other reasons that's why they choose the heretofore unelectable Ariel Sharon as their Prime Minister.

CREEPING TEMPLE AND CREEPING EMBASSY
(July 29, 2001)
In 1967, as the Israeli army took control of all of Jerusalem, the Israeli Flag flew on what the Jews call "the Temple Mount" for the first time since Christ and Mohamed walked the area. Sensing what this could lead to General Moshe Dayan quickly ordered the flag lowered, turned the area that the Muslims call "the Noble Sanctuary", al Haram al Sharif, back over to the Islamic authorities, and though Israel claims sovereignty it's flag has never flown again over the area of the Temple Mount

THE BLEAK FUTURE TODAY IN THE HOLY CITY OF JERUSALEM
(July 29, 2001)
It was "radical" groups that emplanted themselves in the city of Hebron a long time ago, back in fact when the Labor party was still supreme in Israeli affairs. And just look today at that city where the common forefather of both the Jews and the Arabs is buried.

POTENTIAL EXPLOSION IN JERUSALEM SUNDAY
(July 28, 2001)
Arab leaders have warned that a messianic Jewish organisation's plan to make the first move towards rebuilding the Biblical Temple in Jerusalem is a "dangerous step" that could lead to uncontrollable consequences.

JEWS PREPARE FOR JERUSALEM THIRD TEMPLE- AND SO FINALLY DO THE ARABS
(July 28, 2001)
After today's previous MER article was published -- "God War Emerging In Holy Land" -- this Agence France-Presse article has just come over the wires. Characteristically the representatives of the Hashemite Kingdom -- the regime that has been most complicitous in secretly collaborating with the Israelis for decades to control the Palestinians sandwiched between them -- are publicly posturing in one way while actually acting in another.

RELIGIOUS WAR EMERGING IN THE HOLY LAND
(July 28, 2001)
In the years since the turn of the millenium the Arab-Israeli conflict is being transformed into an even more dangerous and potentially cataclysmic Muslim-Jewish war. Ariel Sharon's "visit" to the Temple Mount last year, accompanied by a huge military force, helped sparked Intifada II -- make no mistake about that.

WAR CRIMES TRIALS FOR SHARON ET. AL.?
(July 27, 2001)
In the end the Israelis are likely to find a way to deal with this new situation. They have great resources at their disposal when it comes to the media, intelligence information, lobbying capabilities, help from key governments in the US, UK, and Germany. They have a long history of twisting things to their advantage one way or another. And those opposed to them have a long reputation for much the opposite in fact.

TWISTING ARAFAT UNTIL HE IS DEAD OR GONE
(July 27, 2001)
The Israelis probably prefer Arafat dead at this point; but not at their own hand, at least not directly. Indeed, many of those who used the "Oslo Peace Process" to end Intifada I probably thought Arafat would have either been assassinated or died by now, leaving behind a "peace process" legacy as did Anwar Sadat when he was gunned down by his own soldiers just a few years after reluctantly signing on-the-dotted-line at Camp David 1.

"WARNING! ELECTRIC FENCE" - "WARNING! ISRAELI ARMY"
(July 26, 2001)
NEWSFLASH Thursday Evening 9pm ET: An Israeli teenager has been killed in a shooting attack in the West Bank and three bombs have gone off in the West Bank near Israeli vehicles. The attacks came hours after Palestinians buried a militant killed in an Israeli missile attack. Israeli tanks also shelled Palestinian police posts in a village north of Ramallah and a checkpoint run by Force 17, an elite unit of the police, south of the town, not far from the site of the shooting, said Palestinian security sources.

DEATH, REPRESSION, AND DESTRUCTION EVERYWHERE. SHARON'S POLICY TO PROVOKE VIOLENCE IS WORKING
(July 26, 2001)
Everywhere the settlements continue to expand even as the Israelis constantly twist their words as well as the facts. The Israelis know very well what they are doing and what they want -- they are taking the land and the resources from the indigenous people and then isolating the people in what amount to ghettos and concentration camps calling them "autonomous" areas.

ISRAELI RIGHT STRIKES WHILE ISRAELI LEFT WRITES
(July 25, 2001)
The Israeli army is partially mobilized and positioned for a quick and multi-directional assault on the forces of Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority, ironically armed by the Israelis themselves in years past. Draft mobilization offices have been opened by the Israelis in key U.S. and European cities. The Israelis propaganda machine has been beefed up and already beginning to operate on all cylinders.

PALESTINIAN CIVIL WAR DRAWS CLOSER
(July 25, 2001)
"Israel says Arafat is not doing enough to bolster a US-brokered truce, demanding he arrest activists and stop attacks against armed Jewish settlers and soldiers in occupied areas of the West Bank and Gaza. But Arafat has said he is not in control of security in occupied areas. Palestinians blame Israel for the on-going violence"

WHAT'S UP FOR ARAFAT?
(July 25, 2001)
Ariel Sharon has always been scamming everyone. His long career in the military is full of deception and treachery in public while committing blood-curdling massacres in private. In the most notorious case of all, the Sabra and Shatilla refugee camps of 1982 ...

OFFICIAL PLO VERSION OF CAMP DAVID
(July 25, 2001)
The latest dueling, in advance of the "big bang" which Arafat himself now says is definitely coming -- and whose real purpose by the Israeli right-wing is to end the "Oslo Peace Process" once and for all -- is a battle for public opinion conducted through a convoluted debate over who offered what to whom and who is responsible for the failing of the "peace process".

REGIONAL WAR POSSIBILITIES
(July 24, 2001)
The following two articles are from publications associated with Janes Intelligence Weekly in the U.K. But what's looked at here are the short-term implications and the correct assessment that the very weak and in most cases U.S.-controlled Arab "client regimes" in the region will find one way or another to avoid any military clashes with the vastly superior Israelis.

PALESTINIAN CIVIL WAR LOOMS
(July 24, 2001)
Those who have read MER for some time know that we have long indicated that one of the Israeli goals was to foment a Palestinian civil war. Some of the Israelis, dubbed the "peace camp", preferred to twist Arafat into totally succumbing and signing some kind of "end of conflict" agreement along with creation of a rump and everywhere-controlled Palestinian State.

NEW BATTLE FOR HISTORY
(July 24, 2001)
The latest dueling, in advance of the "big bang" -- whose real purpose by the Israeli right-wing is to end the "Oslo Peace Process" once and for all -- is a battle for public opinion conducted through a convoluted debate over who offered what to whom and who is responsible for the failing of the "peace process".

ARMIES AND POLITICIANS POSITIONING THEMSELVES FOR "BIG BANG" AND THEREAFTER
(July 23, 2001)
Ehud Barak is in the U.S. explaining why his former "peace partner" Arafat is really a big thug who can't possibly be believed or trusted, and how he Barak proved it, kind of sacrificing himself he continually implies.

THE BIG LIES
(July 21, 2001)
Goebbels himself could not have done a better job. For those who don't recognize the name, check back in the not too distant history books under the heading Nazi Information Ministry.

ISRAEL SET TO ATTACK ACCORDING TO CIA
(July 20, 2001)
At first we had the adjective "cowardly" as a preface to "Arabs" in the headline. Let's be clear what we mean here. We're not talking about the Arab peoples, nor about those who do the brave struggling...and the real suffering...and the bleeding and the dying.

WAR DRUMS IN THE HOLY LAND
(July 20, 2001)
No way to know for sure, but if we had to predict at this moment the "Big Bang" (see previous "War Drums" articles for context) will be heard not this week but next after the Maccabiah games have ended and the G8 leaders survive Genoa.

AMERICANS GET ANOTHER WARNING
(July 19, 2001)
With the unprecedented "Red Zone" in Genoa; with key Washington buildings surrounded by concrete and high-tech survelliance; and with Americans warned again by their government to "beware" following on last month's Threatcon Delta alert; the "terrorists" have already accomplished a small part of their goal.

AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL AND ARAB LEAGUE OFFER LITTLE BUT WORDS AND A FEW BUCKS
(July 19, 2001)
It's that little old problem rearing it's ugly head again -- calls that come much too late and even then call for much too little. Worse yet the calls come in very self-serving ways from persons and institutions whose past records make them not very credible, and certainly not very potent.

FINALLY BURYING OSLO
(July 18, 2001)
The "Oslo Peace Process" -- which would have been more aptly named the "Rabin" or the "Clinton" -- has been brain-dead for some time now; kept alive only by extraordinary life-support efforts by its parent surrogates.

INDIA-PAKISTAN SUMMIT COLLAPSES, INDIA IMMEDIATELY ANNOUNCES MAJOR MILITARY ESCALATION WITH ISRAEL
(July 18, 2001)
With both Turkey and India the Israelis are developing formidable military, financial, and intelligence alliances surrounding the Arab and Muslim worlds. These relationships tremendously strengthen the Jewish State financially, militarily, and strategically at a very critical time.

TINDERBOX AWAITS MATCH
(July 17, 2001)
"This could result in a bloodbath and thereby set the entire region aflame. It's not out of the question that demonstrations could topple unpopular regimes in Jordan, Egypt or Saudi Arabia... The tinderbox is awaiting a match."

ARAFAT FADING
(July 17, 2001)
It's beginning to appear that it's just a matter of time now for Arafat to finally be gone. As far as the Israelis and Americans are concerned, it no longer really matters like it use to.

ISRAEL PUSHES PALESTINIANS TOWARD CIVIL WAR
(July 17, 2001)
"No power in the world can stop the resistance operations that come as a reaction to the Israeli aggression ... we have nothing more to lose."

ISRAELIS PUSHING HARD TO PROVOKE MORE PALESTINIAN ATTACKS
(July 16, 2001)
A few years ago when the Americans essentially forced Yasser Arafat to sign one of those deals, this one about Hebron, that was supposed to push the "peace process" forward, it was foreseeable that sooner rather than later Hebron would once again erupt.

MUBARAK REGIME EARNS ITS PAY ONCE AGAIN
(July 15, 2001)
Today the Egyptians hosted Shimon Peres and Yasser Arafat in Cairo. It's a replay of this kind of thing they've been doing for quite some years now. The Egyptians are at it again, fronting for the Americans as they have ever since the original Camp David extravaganza in 1978.

WAR DRUMS FROM ISRAEL
(July 15, 2001)
Longtime top adviser to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Osama el-Baz, has issued a not-so-veiled warning to the Israelis not to attack Syria. The head of Egyptian military intelligence rushed to Israel a few days ago supposedly to warn the Israelis not to dethrone Yasser Arafat.

RACE TO NUCLEAR WAR
(July 14, 2001)
While the Israelis and the Arabs confront each other in a conflict that may now last for a very long time and even lead to a Middle East holocaust in the future; and while the other "peace process" in Northern Ireland also collapses due to its similar duplicitous nature; it is in the subcontinent that the race toward a possible nuclear conflagration is furthest advanced at this moment in history.

MORE U.S. DUPLICLITY - COLIN POWELL NOW IN CHARGE
(July 13, 2001)
It was another top General turned State Department Secretary who gave Ariel Sharon the behind-the-scenes "green light" back in 1982 - General Alexander Haig.

PREPARING FOR THE WAR OF HIS CHOOSING
(July 13, 2001)
What we feared has come true: Two ethno-national groups, living in each other's backyards, are going through a proces of regression to superstitious tribalism. The sounds of the drums are heard throughout the land calling both tribes to gather around the campfire, dress in the colors of war and head out to battle to eliminate the very last member of the other side.

INVASION WATCH?
(July 13, 2001)
What are we to call this situation? "War Watch"...no, the sides are far too uneven, it's not really going to be a war...not unless one or more of the Arab regimes should find itself cornered or facing revolution.

WEST WING PARTIALLY EVACUATED
(July 12, 2001)
A few barks from the sniffers dogs and even after all the security checks required to get into the White House grounds the Secret Service pulled the alarm and quickly began the evacuation procedure.

ISRAELIS GENERALS' PLAN TO "SMASH" PALESTINIANS
(July 12, 2001)
Israeli generals have updated plans for an all-out assault to smash the Palestinian authority, force out leader Yasser Arafat and kill or detain its army, according to a report published Thursday in London.

JANES "FOREIGN REPORTS" DETAILS ISRAELI INVASION PLAN
(July 12, 2001)
The report that a force of some 30,000 Israeli troops is preparing to take on Arafat's "Authority" and bring it to an end was just published in one of the most reputable international publications, one published by the Janes Intelligence network in the U.K. and available only to members who pay a sizeable yearly subscription fee.

ISRAELIS PREPARE WAY TO TAKE OUT ARAFAT REGIME AND TO TAKE ON IRAN'S NEW WEAPON SYSTEMS
(July 11, 2001)
Whatever the truth of Israel's latest allegations against both the Arafat Authority and Iran, there should be little doubt what the Israelis are really up to at this point, with Shimon Peres leading the charge.

BULLDOZERS PREPARING THE WAY FOR THE "BIG BANG"
(July 11, 2001)
It's all part of the same game. The Israelis think they have the Palestinians trapped. They publicly debate how to put them in their place with bulldozers, expulsions, invasion, awaiting the "big bang".

ISRAELIS UNDER SIEGE WITH ARAFAT FACING HIS OWN
(July 10, 2001)
Nearly half of the Israeli Jewish population got a stern warning yesterday - don't drink the water. Today Israel's lifeline, it's international airport between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, is under virtual siege with huge traffic jams as all vehicles undergo the kind of rigorous fender-to-fender inspection previously reserved for just "Arab" cars with special blue plates.

ALGERIA READY TO EXPLODE
(July 10, 2001)
While the legacy of British colonialism still lingers in Palestine and Kashmir, still threatening cataclysmic conflict in both regions, in Algeria it is the legacy of French colonialism, which also of course still has loud echoes in Lebanon and Syria.

WAR IS IN THE AIR - Part 2
(July 10, 2001)
The Egyptians are arming with missiles to deter Israeli strikes against Egyptian cities or strategic targets such as the Aswan dam. These may be conceived as deterrent weapons; but they also could be used in other situations.

WAR IS IN THE AIR - Part 1
(July 9, 2001)
"The stage, therefore, has been set for the outbreak of the next wear: wall-to-wall political approval for a military solution to the current crisis, the appropriate international preparations during the period of restraint."

EVERYTHING YOU WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT THE "RIGHT OF RETURN" BUT WERE TOO AFRAID TO ASK
(July 7, 2001)
"Who will compensate me and my family for all the suffering we went through? Financial compensation cannot replace the right of return....The main thing is to go back to where I belong."

THE STAGE IS NOW SET
(July 7, 2001)
This is the way such things are done these days. Lots of testing of the waters. Lots of preparing the way. Lots of trial balloons. If (probably no longer when) the Israelis "remove" Arafat one way or another -- just as it was they who put him where he is in the first place -- it will no longer come as such a great shock.

FENCING THE PALESTINIANS IN - "UNILATERAL SEPARATION"
(July 6, 2001)
Having to a considerable extent succeeding in colonizing the "occupied territories", especially the most important areas around Jerusalem and the most cultivatable areas along with the crucial water resources, the Israelis are now ready for more fences and barricades.

STOPPING SHARON - PROBABLY TOO LATE
(July 6, 2001)
He's not likely to be stopped now. He's prepared most of his life for this moment in history. And as Israeli Prime Minister for just the past few months he's already visited the American President twice, Downing Street, and now both Germany and France, applauded in public more for his "restraint" as the "new Sharon" rather than for his war criminal past and the neo-apartheid oppression machine he now bears full responsibility for.

ISRAEL SHAHAK DIES AS CALAMITY HE FORESAW APPROACHES
(July 5, 2001)
Just what "cease-fire" is Sarid talking about? And if he really wants a serious outside force, why is he not appealing to the U.N. under Chapter 7 and why are not the Arabs included?

ISRAELIS TO NOW KILL MORE PALESTINIAN ACTIVISTS
(July 4, 2001)
Ariel Sharon and his government are preparing the way to kill more Palestinian street and faction leaders using various forms of high-tech assassination. They are also preparing world public opinion not only for bringing the Arafat "Authority" to an end but for killing and expelling as many Palestinians as circumstances will allow.

THE REAL ARAFAT
(July 3, 2001)
Of course Sharon's comment yesterday is ridiculous. Problem is the strategy behind it is not. "You must comply, resistance is futile" is indeed the loud message from Sharon to Arafat; and Sharon does intend to prove his words in the weeks and months ahead, make no mistake about that.

THE REAL SHARON, MASKED AND PREPARING FOR ANOTHER "GREEN LIGHT"
(July 2, 2001)
Ariel Sharon has Yasser Arafat cornered now -- right where he wants him. Sharon has in essence forced Arafat to publicly call off the Intifada -- or else Sharon made it rather clear, most of all to his American allies, that he would call off Arafat's regime whatever the consequences.

5 PALESTINIANS KILLED SUNDAY
(July 1, 2001)
Five Palestinian militants have been killed by Israeli forces, three in a pinpoint helicopter attack and two in a clash with soldiers. The helicopter fired missiles at a car in which the three men were travelling near Qabatiye in the northern West Bank, Palestinian security officials said.

SYRIA STRUCK FOR SECOND TIME SINCE SHARON BECAME PM
(July 1, 2001)
The Arabs have an amazing tolerance for being struck. Partly it is because of their weakness of course; coupled with their long history of subjugation and occupation. But those who know Arab society also are aware that after taking it and taking it there sometimes comes a moment of powerful emotional uproar screaming for revenge.

SHARON PLAYS THE PALESTINIANS OFF AGAINST EACH OTHER
(July 1, 2001)
While Ariel Sharon uses the greatest pressure of all so far in order to bow the Arafat regime into submission -- the possibility of crushing Arafat's "Authority" through brut military force -- at the same time he holds out the carrot.




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