UPCOMING TOMORROW FROM MER:

"The End of Israel?" Arafat Fears Label As Benedict Arnold Rather than George Washington

THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN: THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL
by Hemi Shalev

[Ma'ariv - 21 January -Translated from Hebrew}: The new Ma'ariv-Gallop poll questioned a particularly large sample of 1,100 people, putting special emphasis on the Arab population and new immigrants. Its principle conclusion is clear and unequivocal: on February 6, Israel will have a new Prime Minister.

Chances are it will be Ariel Sharon. Only in theory is there a slight chance it will actually be Shimon Peres. What is certain, unless there is a cataclysmic event that changes the way the world works, Ehud Barak is going to lose these elections, probably big time. Polls can be wrong, but not that wrong.

The incredible gap between Sharon and Barak remains stable, around 20 percent. The election broadcasts have not helped; Barak's frequent media interviews have made no difference, and the negative campaign against Sharon hasn't done a thing. When that is the situation 18 days prior to elections, the expression "not taking off" is the height of tactfulness.

The writing is clearly on the wall. The public simply does not like Barak. Full stop. That is what the new poll shows. When you add to that the epileptic peace process, the deteriorating security situation, and a widespread feeling, even if not completely justified, of a worsening economy, you get a sure recipe for certain knockout for the Prime Minister. Barak's decision to advance the elections seems, in retrospect, one of the biggest slip-ups in the history of Israeli politics.

In military terms, Barak is reminiscent of the famous American General George Custer, who became known as a brave commander who consciously led his soldiers, against all reason and with impossible inferiority, to a fatal loss against the Sioux Indians. The Americans dubbed the 1876 battle at Little Big Horn, Montana, "Custer's last stand,". Custer and his soldiers became famed for their bravery, but the bottom line is they were all massacred.

Now, in their time of distress, Barak's advisors are trying to shift the blame to Peres. They claim Barak voters will continue to remain undecided as long as Peres is a present-absentee candidate. They are forgetting that Barak's public standing began to fall to hitherto unknown depths long before anyone even breathed the name Shimon Peres. The poll shows that even if Peres were to clearly leave the race with determination, it would change nothing in terms of Barak.

Barak swore this week that he would not leave the arena. It will be very difficult for him to release himself from this vow, and it is not so clear he would want to. From his tone in private conversation, it is very possible Barak himself would prefer to have Sharon as Prime Minister and not Peres. The way to ensure that, for now, is to stay in the race to the very end. "Only Barak will bring Sharon," a frustrated left-winger said this week, paraphrasing the Likud slogan.

At any rate, Peres is far from being a sure thing. Although the public has great sympathy for him, the polls foresee a tie, and based on past experience, Peres is a sure loser in tie situations. A lot will depend on organization and motivation, and the Likud has an incredible advantage in both these. But at least Peres would lose honorably. One cannot say even that about Barak.

Head to Head

Q: If elections for the premiership were held today and the candidates were Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon, for whom would you vote? Sharon - 51% (50% last week); Barak- 31% (same as last week); Blank ballot/don't know - 18%

Q: Suppose Shimon Peres were running for the premiership instead of Ehud Barak, for whom would you vote? Sharon - 45% (44% last week); Peres - 44% (46% last week); Blank ballot/don't know - 11%

Q: And if Shimon Peres were to make a final and unequivocal announcement that he will not run for premier, for whom would you vote? Sharon - 52%; Barak - 31%; Blank ballot/don't know - 17%.

Gut Feeling

Those who support Barak do not understand why he deserves this. They can understand the right wing, who is ideologically hell-bent against Barak, but not the center, and certainly not the left. Especially, when it is against Sharon, the man who until recently was considered decidedly unelectable.

Objectively, Barak indeed is not without achievement. He got the IDF out of Lebanon and the economy out of recession, and went a long way in trying to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Outside observers , most of whom like Barak a lot more than his public does, cannot fathom how incredibly behind he is in the polls.

It is reasonable to believe that the central reason for Barak's inferior position stems from the shaking of the public's feeling of security as a result of the al-Aksa Intifada, and perhaps just as importantly, from the feeling of humiliation and powerlessness in face of the situation that has arisen. But even that is not enough to explain the force of Barak's fall.

Something basic went wrong in the relations between Barak and the public, between the leader and his congregation. And that is a gut feeling, it does not come from the head.

Barak, even those who oppose him will agree, is full of good intentions, but they are not what led him to the image-hell he is in currently. His "conduct" is what brought him here, fighting alone without any allies, with such supporters as Peres and Yossi Sarid, who even in the televised broadcasts cannot hide their aversion for the candidate they are endorsing.

This is reminiscent of the 1999 elections, but in reverse. Then it was Netanyahu who had no chance, because everyone, with the exception of a core of supporters, simply had had enough of him, in the government, in the Knesset, in the media and among the public. Sometime, during his short term of office, Netanyahu passed the point of no return, after which it would make no difference what he said or did. The question was not whether he would be kicked out, but when. The public wanted a divorce, at all costs. Now, they want the same from Barak.

Barak dug this hole with his own hands, with the help of mistaken advice from some of his advisors and confidants. He brought himself to a political death through continuous zigzagging, always doing so through some convoluted internal reasoning clear only to him. Every time he changed direction, Barak lost another group of supporters, raised disappointment and even grudges. Now he is trying to convince his public of the need to unite in view of the big danger of Ariel Sharon, but the public is not ready to do so, neither to forget nor forgive. Even if there are many people who will not vote for Ehud Barak and then regret it after February 6, they cannot overcome their desire to punish him, here and now.

A candidate who 57% of the public say they do not like, cannot win the elections and this truth cannot be changed in the 18 days before the elections. In the following "sympathy parade" Barak is way behind, closer to Yasser Arafat than to Bill Clinton, as it were. His rival, Ariel Sharon, is liked by 48% of the public, whereas Peres, as always, is the king of the polls.

The poll was conducted on Wednesday [17 January] and questioned 1,100 people who form a representative sample of Israel's adult population. The maximum margin of error is 3%.