The long-serving (now recalled to Cairo) Egyptian Ambassador to Israel was quoted saying last week that if an Israeli-Palestinian agreement isn't reached in the next two weeks there won't be an agreement for the next two decades. Now we normally don't quote someone like Ambassador Bassiouni, and for that matter we don't normally focus on the polls. But the upcoming election of Ariel Sharon to be Prime Minister of Israel, especially at such a crucial historical time, is an exception to nearly all the normal rules of the road and carries ominous implications, especially with the coming to power in Washington of the Bush Administration which has many right-wing (many Jewish) Israeli sympathizers taking over key positions of power and influence.

LEBANON SEES BLEAK FUTURE IF ISRAEL ELECTS SHARON
By Jamal Saidi

"We believe in peace but we are not betting on peace." Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri

AL-JAMHOUR, Lebanon, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The Lebanese government predicted on Friday an ominous future for the Middle East if Ariel Sharon won Israel's general elections next month.

The latest Palestinian uprising erupted in September following a visit by Sharon to a shrine in Jerusalem's walled Old City that is holy to Muslims and Jews.

"Israel will pay the price (of a Sharon victory)," Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri told a ceremony to re-open al-Jamhour, a power station on the outskirts of Beirut which was destroyed three times by Israeli bombardment and rebuilt each time.

Sharon, who opposes making concessions to the Palestinians, is one of the most despised Israeli figures in the Arab Middle East, and especially in Lebanon. He led the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in the summer of 1982 which killed an estimated 30,000 civilians.

During the occupation of Beirut, Israeli-backed Christian militias entered the Sabra and Shatila camps and slaughtered hundreds of unarmed Palestinian refugees. An Israeli inquiry found Sharon indirectly responsible for the massacres.

Israel kept occupying parts of Lebanon and repeatedly bombed the country until it pulled out from the south last year. Egypt helped to rebuild Jamhour after it was last bombed in 2000.

Egypt's Minister of Electricity Ali el-Saidi, who attended the ceremony, said: "We stand beside Lebanon in word and deed. Rebuilding the station was not easy. Israel tried to spread desperation by destroying Jamhour."

Sentiment in Lebanon improved marginally after the Israeli pullout. But financiers say a Sharon victory would discourage investment and hurt Lebanon's chances of economic recovery.

Dealers say pressure on the Lebanese pound, which was heavy last year, could resume if Israel became belligerent under Sharon. "This is the stage when we are in dire need of Arab unity, especially with what is happening in Israel, especially if the next Israeli election ends with the arrival of Sharon, the perpetrator of Sabra and Shatila," said Hariri.

"We believe in peace but we are not betting on peace."

THE POLLS

Geocartography Poll
11 Jan 2001 Sharon 55% Barak 32%
8 Jan 2001 Sharon 52% Barak 21%

11 Jan 2001 Sharon 50% Peres 45%
8 Jan 2001 Sharon 51% Peres 38

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Friday Poll 12 January 2001
Gallup - Ma'ariv

10 January 2001 Barak 25% Sharon 44%
WK 05 Jan 2001 Barak 22% Sharon 50%

When the pollster pushed the undecided to decide:
10 January 2001 Barak 31% Sharon 50%
WK 05 Jan 2001 Barak 31% Sharon 55%
Ma'ariv 12 January 2001

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Dahaf - Yediot Ahronot

Week 12 Jan.2001: Barak 32% Sharon 50% Undecided/No reply 18%
Week 05 Jan.2001: Barak 32% Sharon 50% Undecided/No reply 18%

Week 12 Jan.2001: Peres 47% Sharon 45% Undecided/No reply 8%
Week 05 Jan.2001: Peres 49% Sharon 44% Undecided/No reply 7%

Mid-East Realities

www.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/1/18.htm