As for the Pakistanis, they too are playing a most careful game, the situation there too volatile for Secretary Rumsfeld to even visit Islamabad. While the military Government of General Pervez Musharraf has publicly indicated support for the Americans -- hoping to cash in on the unforseen opportunity and save Pakistan from the course of financial and social ruin it was on -- the assistance being provided is nearly totally in secret involving intelligence, commandos, and out of sight military facilities. Musharraf's government has convincingly pleaded with the Americans that visible military forces simply cannot operate from Pakistan or the country would face civil war -- presenting the U.S. and U.K. with a potentially nuclear armed Muslim State. Meanwhile, yesterday's deadly bomb in Indian-occupied Kashmir has upped the ante as both the Indians and Israelis are secretly pressuring the Americans about the possibility of finding one way or another to defange Pakistan's nuclear capabilities before this new war ends, whenever that may be.

The Pentagon is yet to confirm reports that suggest the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk left its base in Japan without its usually embarked carrier air wing. It is suggested that this huge vessel with an USMC Expeditionary Force of upto 12,000 from the 3rd Division on Okinawa already on board and on accompanying naval vessels, sailed to the Pacific island of Guam to take on board elements, including helicopter assets from the 10th Mountain Division normally based in New York and possibly from the 25th Infantry Division from Hawaii, then resumed its course for the Persian Gulf. Once on station it will act as a floating Command Centre and reserve 'airstrip' to replace facilities denied to the US by the Saudi government and it is probable that the lack of such vital capabilities have almost certainly delayed the start of the campaign by some considerable time.

This would allow the United States to develop a much larger and more conventional ground warfighting capability in the Middle East, particularly as crews can be flown out to the Gulf to reactivate the two armoured brigades of MI Abrams main battle tanks and M2/3 Bradley light armoured vehicles permanently pre-positioned in Kuwait and Qatar. It is also becoming painfully aware that the self-declared war on terrorism will be fought largely by just the USA and UK, with little help from elsewhere, except the unusual prospect of an active involvement by Russian Forces.

However, if some of the plans put forward, but temporarily sidelined, by Pentagon 'Hawks' such as Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfield and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz, for a war on terrorism without constraint or time limits, then the conflict that is likely to engulf much of the Middle East and Central Asia would certainly require the commitment of a very considerable part of the US armed forces and for an indefinite period. The catastrophic effect this could have on the worlds economy, the resulting risks of creating religious and racial wars and with increased opportunities for anti-Western terrorism this would offer, are now being well documented by the more prescient analysts.

US Ground forces already committed to the forthcoming military operations against Afghanistan include elements of both the 82nd Airborne Division, 101st Air Assault Division, 75th Ranger Regiment, Special Forces Groups('Green Berets') and Delta Force Commando Squadron, supported by specialist aviation units including the 160th SOAR 'The Night Stalkers'. A leading role in tracking down Osama Bin-Laden and a number of other covert actions, will be played by the highly secretive US Army ISA which draws its specialist personnel from several units including the Delta Force, the USMC 'Recons' and the USN SEAL's.

It appears that the 201st Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian Army based in Tajikistan has been reinforced with Pushtun speaking interpreters & interrogators, Spetsnaz Commando units and extra helicopters and may indeed take some part in the Allied operations in Afghanistan. It cannot be ruled out that joint Spetsnaz and US Special Forces patrols are now deep inside Taliban held territory and in fact some Middle Eastern expects have suggested that it could well be a largely US-Russian operation in the north tracking down Bin-Laden and while the US-UK forces in the south will concentrate on toppling the Taliban regime.

In what appears to be a potentially aggressive redeployment of its forces, Iran has moved two squadrons of Su-24 and MiG-29 strike fighters to airbases in the south along with an IL-76 Mainstay AEW aircraft and has in addition moved a regiment of Scud missiles near to Bandar Abbas. The batteries of Chinese-built CSSC-3 'Seersucker' anti-ship missiles covering the vital choke-point of the Straits of Hormuz have been brought to a high state of readiness and the combination of strike aircraft and massed missile batteries must pose a distinct threat to the largely aircraft carrier based US air armada forced to operate in the reasonably restricted waters of the Persian Gulf and north Arabian Sea. Iran is concerned with reports emanating from Intelligence sources in the Gulf, that Iraq, the Hezbollah terrorists in the Beka'a valley and at the very least, Irans own WMD facilities are next on the United States hit list and indeed, with the possible creation of an 'Independent Palestine', in effect an Israeli client state, as a sweetener to keep the majority of Arab States, if not in the coalition, then at least not openly hostile to the United States actions. Source: AFI Research with Intellecom Inc at www.geocities.com/afi_research/.

Mid-East Realities

www.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/10/435.htm