Now the real craziness begins. The Palestinians are committed to heating things up to demonstrate their resolve and their capabilities. The Israelis are committed to "stopping the violence" which means clamping the boot down on the Palestinians even more harshly -- and even Shimon Peres has already announced he is eager to join a Sharon "national unity" government. The Americans are tied to the Israelis for good or bad; their military forces are on alert and military supplies, including Patriot missiles, are already flowing into Israel under various covers.

And the Arabs remain too weak, divided, and co-opted to do anything serious; fearing more than loathing Israel. It's all a powderkeg waiting for ignition; and the two articles that follow help set the stage for whatever is now to come:

FEAR SPURS VOTERS INTO ARMS OF SHARON

Palestinian threats help to seal the prime minister's expected political doom

[The Guardian - Suzanne Goldberg in Jerusalem, Tuesday February 6]: Palestinian militants said last night that they were poised to attack targets in Israel on the eve of today's election, which is expected to make Ariel Sharon the country's next prime minister.

The warning came as Israeli soldiers tried to tighten their grip on the West Bank and Gaza Strip before the "day of rage" which leaders of Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement say marks the start of an intensification of the four-month uprising.

The army fired rocket-propelled grenades into the Palestinian refugee camp of Rafah, on the border between Gaza and Egypt, after an Israeli soldier on his way to vote in the early ballot staged for the army was killed by a bullet fired from the camp.

Israel also shut down the Palestinian airport in Gaza and the Rafah crossing to Egypt.

Police reinforcements were moved to the northern towns in Galilee, where a call for Israeli Arabs to boycott the election could lead to clashes.

With yesterday's opinion polls showing him leading the incumbent prime minister, Ehud Barak, by as much as 22 points, Mr Sharon could be stepping into a ready-made confrontation.

Yesterday he was challenged not only by the Fatah militias, which have led the protests in the West Bank and Gaza, but also by the militant group Islamic Jihad, which has claimed responsibility for at least two car bombings in Israel in the past four months.

"Our operations will continue and increase. We will carry out powerful blows against the criminal entity within the coming few days," Islamic Jihad said in a statement delivered before yesterday's funeral of a bomber who was shot dead trying to scale the fence sealing off Gaza.

"No barriers, wire fences, or security measures will prevent us from carrying out painful strikes against the enemy."

In the West Bank city of Ramallah, meanwhile, an important Fatah leader declared that the Palestinians would give no quarter to Mr Sharon.

Hussein Sheikh, who commands Fatah's militiamen in the West Bank, said: "The next days and weeks are going to be hard, and the area will witness an escalation in the field.

"We have declared a general state of emergency and we have orders to escalate the intifada."

Mr Barak spent the final moments of his campaign yesterday warning Israelis that the former general Sharon could lead them into a war.

"The Middle East is a powder keg," he wrote in the Yediot Ahronoth, Israel's best-selling paper.

"We are being called to decide whether to give the match to extremists, people who are too extreme for Israel. We are being called to decide whether between us and peace lies another bloody war."

But Israelis seemed to be in no mood to listen. After four months of bloodshed in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, people have lost faith not only in Mr Barak but in the entire seven years of negotiations started by the assassinated prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, according to research published yesterday by the Israel Democracy Institute.

An opinion survey carried out last month found that only 22% of Israelis believed that a peace deal with the Palestinians would end nearly 53 years of violence. Two years ago the figure was 67%.

"Israelis feel that the track Rabin, and especially Barak, took was leading to an agreement having many concessions but no end of conflict, and no solution to problems of personal security," said Ruth Gavison, from the institute.

"Many Israelis feel that what we now have is not a full war, but it is definitely not peace, and the way Barak is leading could lead into a worse war."

In his place Israelis are expected to choose a man who says he has no intention of negotiating with the Palestinians for years, and who last year called on Mr Barak to crush the uprising by assassinating Gaza's security chief.

How big the turnout will be is another question, however.

In Ramallah Mr Sheikh declared: "If the choice is war, it is better for Palestinians to deal with Sharon .Sharon has a clear vision. It is better for us to deal with someone who clearly wants to fight us and have war rather than deal with someone who raises flag of peace and then wages war."

TENSIONS HIGH AS U.S. PATRIOT MISSILES ARRIVE IN ISRAEL
By Steve Rodan, Middle East Newsline

[TEL AVIV - Middle East Newsline - 6 February] A U.S. Army brigade carrying Patriot anti-aircraft missiles has arrived in Israel as both Israeli and Arab military sources reported heightened regional tensions.

The U.S. brigade from the 69th Air Defense Artillery arrived in Haifa and is preparing for an exercise, called Juniper Cobra. The exercise - beginning Thursday and lasting 14 days - is one component of plans to increase U.S.-Israeli defense coordination amid threats of regional war that could involve Iraq and Syria.

The sources described Israeli, Iraqi and Lebanese military movements over the weekend. In Lebanon, the Hizbullah movement deployed short-range rockets near the Israeli border.

Arab military sources said Israel and Hizbullah have beefed up their forces near the border with Lebanon. On late Sunday, the sources reported intensified Israeli patrols, deployment of additional tanks as well as fortified military and civilian outposts.

For its part, Hizbullah was reported to have brought in new batteries of Katyusha rockets. These include rockets with a range of 70 kilometers, capable of striking the northern city of Haifa.

In Beirut, Hizbullah deputy chief Naim Kassem said Hizbullah was ready to confront Israel. Kassem said Israel was confused and the leadership was under immense strain.

Israeli sources said Iraq continues to bolster its forces near the Syrian and Jordanian borders. They said nearly two Iraqi divisions are near the Syrian border in what appears to be a move coordinated with the regime in Damascus.

The London-based Sunday Times reported that both the Syrian and Israeli militaries are on full alert.

The United States has relayed messages to Damascus not to cooperate with Baghdad's plans to escalate tension. On Sunday, U.S. officials called for restraint, particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian mini-war in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Israeli military source said the arrival of the Patriot battery does not effectively strengthen defense capabilities. The Patriot was developed as an anti-aircraft missile. But since the Gulf war, Raytheon has improved the missile so that it can intercept enemy projectiles.

But defense sources said the Patriot is simply too slow to intercept the more advanced missiles being developed by Egypt, Syria and Iran.

Mid-East Realities

www.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/2/56.htm