And by the way, if you are in Egypt and have information and insights you want to make us aware of, please do with our thanks -- MER@MiddeEast.Org

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt, April 17 (AFP) - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak issued a blunt warning on Tuesday to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon not to go "beyond the limit of what is acceptable".

"I am telling him stop, stop, do not go beyond the limit of what is acceptable," Mubarak said in an angry voice on national television after meeting Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

"This policy will lead to nothing, it will have terrible repercussions and if they believe they are going to halt the violence this way, the violence will increase everywhere," Mubarak added in the interview.

"It's a bad policy, he said, urging Sharon to be "pragmatic".

"These strikes will have no effect, will lead to nothing other than more violence and bring an end to stability and the Israeli people will suffer more."

Arafat, who made no comments, met the Egyptian president as tensions soared in the Middle East over Israel's air raid on a Syrian post in Lebanon on Monday and its military takeover of several autonomous Palestinian areas of the Gaza Strip in more retaliatory strikes.

"What is happening now and the escalation which took place against Syria, all that does not presage peace and stability for the region, including for Israel and the Israeli people," Mubarak said.

Sharon had shown "caution" when he became prime minister in March, but "now the facts are there, he wants to pick a fight with those around him," Mubarak noted.

He added that Egypt would not be returning its ambassador to Tel Aviv following his recall on Novmeber 21 after what Cairo called "excessive use of force" by the Israeli army in the Palestinian territories.

Mubarak had been quoted as saying in the US press during his recent trip to Washington that the envoy would return to his post if peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians resumed.

Also attending the Red Sea meeting were Egyptian Information Minister Safwat al-Sherif, Mubarak political advisor Ossama al-Baz, Palestinian peace negotiator Saeb Erakat and top Arafat advisor Nabil Abu Rudeina.

Arafat arrived in Cairo Monday night and met with US Senator Arlen Specter, a Republican from Pennsylvania, who has been involved in Mideast peace efforts for several years, the US embassy said here.

On Monday, Israeli warplanes bombarded a Syrian radar station in Lebanon, killing at least one Syrian soldier and injuring four others. That was in retaliation for a strike by the radical Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah on Saturday that left one Israeli soldier dead.

Arafat described Israel's raid on the Syrian military position east of Beirut as a "serious escalation."

With Israeli-Egyptian relations at their lowest ebb in years, Leora Eren Frucht examines the future of a 'cold peace' that seems cooler than ever

(Jerusalem Post, April 17) - Pessah has never been a time to celebrate relations with Egypt.

But this year, ties between Israel and Egypt are more strained than they have been in many years.

The Egyptian embassy in Tel Aviv is still without an ambassador since Cairo sent Mohammed Bassiouny home in November.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon have yet to exchange a word. And the Egyptian media is full of particularly virulent depictions of Israel and Jews. "Worse even than what we are used to," says Israeli ambassador to Egypt Zvi Mazel, who on Saturday participated in what was his eighth Seder in Cairo.

"The climate here is not good. Every day there are dozens of items in the papers that portray not only Israelis, but all Jews, as thieves, liars and cheats," says Mazel, speaking from his office in Cairo last week. "The caricatures are simply evil and bring to mind Der Sturmer [the rabidly antisemitic Nazi newspaper of the 1930s]."

A typical example was an editorial concerning the Palestinian intifada that appeared in Tuesday's edition of al-Akhbar, Egypt's widest-circulation daily (and a paper closely associated with the government). The editorial concluded that: "We must remember that the Jews are a people of fear, treachery, and suspicion; therefore they cannot prevail for long in an armed conflict."

After the outbreak of the intifada, Israel expected Egypt to play a role in persuading Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat to quell the violence - especially after Egypt hosted the Sharm e-Sheikh summit where the two sides agreed to take steps to stop the fighting. Instead Foreign Minister Amr Moussa - recently appointed secretary of the Arab League - has made comments justifying Palestinian violence. This week in a meeting with Amr Moussa, US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice took Egypt to task for not doing enough to rein in the Palestinians, according to reports received by diplomatic sources in Jerusalem.

Despite the tension and hate-filled rhetoric, Mazel says there are hopeful signs in relations. Last week an Israeli agricultural delegation was warmly received by the Egyptian minister of agriculture. And this week marked the opening of an oil refinery that is a joint Egyptian-Israeli venture five years in the planning.

"The inauguration took place without much fanfare," notes Mazel, "but it happened." Diplomatic ties continue too. Though Sharon hasn't spoken with the Egyptian president, Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has, and envoys at various levels continue to meet. "Ties have not been severed," says Mazel. "No one has said that ties have been severed."

An Egyptian-Jordanian formulation for restarting the talks was dismissed by Israel, which insists that the violence cease before the resumption of negotiations. But one Foreign Ministry official notes that "while the proposal is not acceptable to Israel... it shows that there is a desire on the part of Egypt to take some initiative in getting the sides to return to a dialogue, and that's positive." "We're in a crisis. We must move beyond it," says Mazel. "No one is interested in going in another direction."

In the rocky history of Egyptian-Israeli relations, how is this year different from other years?

For one thing, Sharon is less anxious than his predecessors to win favor with Egypt. Ehud Barak's first trip as prime minister was to Cairo. Binyamin Netanyahu also made a point of visiting Egypt relatively early in his term. Observers don't see Sharon following in their footsteps.

Mubarak did not call to congratulate Sharon after his election, and Sharon isn't running after Mubarak (who has visited Israel only once - to attend the funeral of slain prime minister Yitzhak Rabin). While American-Jewish peace activists, together with Arab-Americans, honored Mubarak in Washington last week, the Israeli government boycotted the event.

Ephraim Dubek, former ambassador to Egypt, compares this period in Egyptian-Israeli relations to that of former prime minister Yitzhak Shamir's term.

"Communication was cut off at the highest level. Mubarak and Shamir never even met once," says Dubek, who was in Cairo from 1990 to 1992 during Shamir's term. "Mubarak regards a summit as a prize Israel can get if it makes enough concessions. Shamir didn't want to pay the price. Sharon's approach is the same. This is just like the Shamir period."

Prof. Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, says: "Both Netanyahu and Barak tried to give Egypt a very respectable place in the region, and in the peace process. I think the efforts were exaggerated. We must maintain our dignity," says Inbar. "If they don't want to talk to us, no problem."

Some observers liken the current state of relations to a good cop/bad cop routine. Mubarak tries to defuse tensions, telling the Arab League that Egypt does not want to go to war with Israel. Amr Moussa becomes increasingly popular at home by making inflammatory remarks against Israel in support of Palestinian violence.

On the Israeli side, Sharon reacts coolly to Mubarak's snub, while Peres tries to woo Cairo.

Last time Egypt recalled its ambassador from Israel, following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, it took four years until the post was filled again. (In 1986 Cairo promoted Bassiouny, then an envoy in the Tel Aviv embassy, to ambassador.)

"The Egyptians agreed to appoint an ambassador only after Israel made concessions on Taba," says Dubek, referring to the disputed territory south of Eilat that was later returned to Egypt. "Egypt knows we want normalization very badly so they use it to extort concessions from us," he maintains, adding that Israel is unlikely to see an ambassador in Tel Aviv in the near future.

What's more, Dubek argues that the intifada serves Egyptian interests - as long as it doesn't lead to a total regional war. "Egypt doesn't care if there is some violence to keep the pressure on Israel."

While Israeli diplomats, including Mazel, speak about the "central role Egypt has to play in the peace process," this is not the first time Israel is in fact disappointed by what it sees as Egypt's failure to play a constructive role in that process.

Inbar notes that in 1997, "Egypt played a negative role by trying to toughen Palestinian positions prior to the Hebron deal" - in which Jordan ultimately acted as mediator.

Dubek points out that more recently, at the Camp David talks, "it was Egypt that restrained the Palestinians, discouraging them from making a compromise on Jerusalem."

"I think Egypt has done its share in the peace process," says Inbar. "The peace treaty with Israel was an important precedent, a breakthrough, but that's it. For years now Egypt has played a negative role - and I don't think it has anything else to contribute to the process."

Dubek says that those who are disappointed in Egypt simply had unrealistic expectations. "There is disappointment among those who thought that when Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty, they would conspire to coordinate stands and 'sell' them to the Arabs.

"Egypt is bound to peace, but it doesn't see peace the way we do," maintains Dubek, author of Peace Nevertheless, a book on Egyptian-Israeli relations.

"The inflammatory rhetoric exists from Day 1 and continues today. I remember Israeli diplomats used to get their daily dose of poison reading the Egyptian newspapers," says Dubek, who was also an envoy in the Cairo embassy from 1980-1983.

Mazel says he has repeatedly turned to Egyptian leaders to complain about the anti-Israel and antisemitic depictions in the media.

"At best, it stops for a few days, then resumes," he says. In addition, in February, Israeli diplomats in Cairo had their Internet access to many Israeli sources cut off in what they saw as one of many steps to make them feel increasingly unwelcome in Egypt. (The access was restored after Mazel launched a complaint with high-ranking Egyptian officials who maintained it was merely a technical problem.) "The point is that Egypt does not want a new Middle East," says Dubek. "The playing ground where Egypt is comfortable is the old Middle East. The Egyptians will do everything to prevent Israel from enjoying the fruits of peace. They have created mechanisms to foil normalization."

Even if Israel reaches peace agreements with the Palestinians - and Syria - Egypt will not warm up to the Jewish state, asserts Dubek.

"It's not because of the Palestinians that relations are cold. It's because of Egyptian interests. Egypt is afraid of Israel elbowing it out of the region.

"It's afraid that Israel will become dominant in agriculture, economics, and culture, that it will introduce democratic ideas, and ultimately usurp Egypt's role as a leader in the Middle East. That's why it has set up mechanisms to foil normalization. Even if there is total peace, this will not change."

On the other hand, Dubek maintains that Egypt is fully committed to peace - at least on its own terms.

"People talk about a cold peace. Peace has no temperature. It either exists, or it doesn't. In the case of Egypt and Israel, there is unquestionably peace," maintains Dubek, noting Egypt's steadfast adherence to the military clauses of the peace treaty, the continued demilitarization of Sinai, Israeli access to the Suez Canal, ongoing dialogue and diplomatic relations, and the operation of flights and buses for Israelis visiting Egypt.

Dubek argues that peace, at this level, is strong and durable.

"It's been tested many times," he says, citing the first intifada, the Lebanon War, the Israeli attack on the Iraqi nuclear reactor. "None of these episodes led Egypt to war. And now, during the second intifada, Egypt gets up at the Arab league summit and pledges not to go to war with Israel. Why? Because it knows that it can get much more from Israel around the negotiating table than it can on the battleground.

"If Egypt goes to war, it will lose US aid, oil will stop flowing, the Suez Canal will close. On the other hand, in the Gulf War, Egypt sent one company of soldiers who didn't even fight. In return for granting legitimacy to the US intervention, they got $21 billion. A high-ranking Egyptian journalist told me that Egypt should erect a golden statue of Saddam Hussein in Cairo to commemorate his stupidity [and Egypt's good fortune]."

Inbar, while critical of Egypt's role in the peace process, also believes Cairo has no interest in going to war. "As long as the US is the world superpower, and Egypt is anxious to stay in the good graces of the US, the bad winds blowing from Cairo are neutralized," he says.

The prognosis for relations? Mazel hopes Egypt will return its ambassador soon, but adds: "The current atmosphere is not conducive to dialogue. Egypt must lower the level of hostility, incitement and attacks on Israel in the media."

Dubek predicts more of the same. "Relations started off cold, and they will remain cold." In light of that, what are Israel's options?

There is a move among some US congressman to get Washington to eliminate or reduce its billions in military aid to Egypt. In fact, Israeli-Egyptian relations took a further beating last month in the wake of reports that Sharon himself urged the US President to take such action - a claim subsequently denied by the prime minister.

Inbar supports such pressure. "Egypt should know there's a price for not being nice to Israel. It's worth reminding them that Israel has influence on Capital Hill."

Dubek rejects such tactics. "Today military aid to Egypt is an American interest. We shouldn't try to sabotage it. The US is not going to 'use the stick' to threaten Egypt over what is - from an American point of view - a marginal issue, like not coming down hard enough on Arafat, or recalling an ambassador. It would be a different story if Egypt went to war against Israel."

There have been reports recently that Israel may consider recalling its own ambassador from Cairo. "We shouldn't be the ones to worsen the situation," says Inbar, rejecting the idea.

"All we would do is lose the few fruits of peace we do enjoy," says Dubek. "There's no point playing that game - and losing it too."

"No one has seriously considered that option," maintains Mazel. "We must not begin to break ties. It's better to keep them the way they are."

For Israeli diplomats in Cairo, that means living and working under a growing sense of siege. But for now, there will be no exodus from Egypt.

Mid-East Realities

www.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/4/162.htm