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"I say to the Israelis -- let there be no mistake about it -- we will attack them from everywhere, from every direction." Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah Tehran Conference, April 2001
MID-EAST REALITIES © - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 6/14: There are major historical and military reasons why Ehud Barak and Bill Clinton (representing of course huge constituencies who at the time pushed them to pursue the policies they did) pressed Yasser Arafat so hard to sign an agreement at Camp David. It was all designed to force some kind of deal with Yasser Arafat while he is still in charge and to try to defuse the more ominous alternative future if the "peace process" with the Palestinians doesn't continue. And in a sense this is really the only major card Arafat still holds -- future regional warfare -- and it is a mighty card indeed though he may never live to actually play it.
The Israelis are well aware that they are now probably at the zenith of their power. They are well aware of the continuing Islamic resurgence; well aware that as weak as backward as infiltrated as the Arab world is, many of the "client regimes" are shaking. They are also well aware that in the end Israel is a small and thus vulnerable country; all the more so in the age of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, some of which can be delivered by the same "suicide bombers" who today use strapped-on explosives.
Earlier this year there was a major gathering in Tehran of those who not only oppose the treacherously deceptive "peace process" but the whole Jewish State concept, especially now that it has evolved into an apartheid-like structure far more overtly racist than in the past.
By striking Osirak in 1981 and then helping instigate the Gulf War a decade later the Israelis seem to have concluded they bought themselves much more time to dominate the divided and prostrate region and to consolidate their hold over what once was Palestine, especially the formally occupied areas still being absorbed. The Osirak attack came at a time when Saddam Hussein was America's new strongman allie in the region; and the Gulf War shortly after Saddam promised to reign bombs on Israel should Iraq ever be attacked again. Now, in Iran last month, there was what may well have been the largest gathering of forces opposed to Israel, with some 37 countries represented, and the following blast from Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah no doubt resonates as it was meant to: "Our Palestinian brothers will not be left alone to fend for themselves. I say to the Israelis -- let there be no mistake about it -- we will attack them from everywhere, from every direction."
You can bet the Israeli Generals are well aware of what was said and planned at the Tehran meeting, as well as the various veiled warnings coming from Cairo and Riyadh, however muted, however much these "client regimes" still remain in the end under American control.
Let there be no mistake about it indeed. The Israelis may well have concluded that without a strategic agreement with the Palestinians recognized by much of the world -- and that is why the failure to cajole and impose such an agreement at Camp David last year is so significant -- it is better to bring the Palestinians into submission and at the same time if possible take out the weapons of mass destruction in surrounding Arab countries now, than to wait anxiously for a future conflict when Israel's military and political advantages may not be as great as they are at the moment.
One more factor as well, and it's what is going on in Europe at the moment with George W. declaring to the world that the previous strategic arms treaties are "relics of the Cold War" and the U.S. will build "star wars" one way or another. Indeed, there are powerful Israeli-oriented personalities and forces in today's Washington at the highest levels pushing hard for building "star wars" (though of course they have changed the terminology which backfired on them in the past). The Israeli military and defense industries are intimately involved. The Israelis may well have concluded that if they can knock out Arab military power now -- and thus they may even be trying to provoke a short but intense regional conflict --by the time the Arabs are able to rebuild there will be new laser and missile defenses able to protect the Jewish State.
It's a terribly dangerous strategy, and it may well be leading down the road to another holocaust of sorts; especially as the hatreds and desires for revenge continue to escalate. But indeed, that's why General Barak was so determined, and so desperate really, to find some way to reach some kind of historic deal with Yasser Arafat, then to consolidate more political and economic arrangements with the key Arab states in the region, and in this way to head off the alternative choices and alternative futures that now await. Barak, and thus Clinton, lost their historic gambit both because what was offered was not a "Palestinian State" but too transparently Israeli apartheid, and because the Arafat Regime they had counted on didn't have the strength and credibility among its own people to historically enslave them further then they already are.
Now we all are marching into the abyss, as the following three insightful articles help explain:
An intelligence firm has said Israel could be facing a full-scale regional war by October, and that top Israeli commanders are becoming frustrated by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's hesitation to destroy the Palestinian Authority's infrastructure.
Texas-based Stratfor.com, a global economic and military intelligence analyst firm, said in a report Thursday that Israeli military leaders were "disillusioned" with Sharon, and believes he may have lost his nerve.
"Sharon had pledged over and over that he would order an attack that would destroy the Palestinian Authority and exile Chairman Yasser Arafat from the region," the analytical report said.
"That opportunity came over the weekend when a Palestinian suicide bomber sent by the Islamic Hamas group blew himself up and killed another 20 Israelis," said Stratfor.
However, the next day, June 2, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz presented to Sharon a plan for a massive bombing sweep that would destroy the PA infrastructure and lead to the exile of Arafat.
"But Sharon, under massive pressure from the United States and the European Union, said no. Arafat had pledged a cease-fire, and Sharon did not want to be seen as the one who ruined the opportunity to end the 8-month-old war against the Palestinians," Stratfor.com said.
According to the report, the result of that has been some "deep soul-searching" within the upper echelons of the Israel Defense Force. Top commanders, the report said, believe Sharon is following exactly the same path as his predecessor, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, whom Sharon defeated soundly in February.
"Barak was held back from ending the war against the Palestinians by the refusal of then-President Bill Clinton to support a drive to exile Arafat. Barak felt that without U.S. support, Israel would be alone against the world," the report said.
Now, because of the civilian leadership's lack of will, IDF commanders believe Arafat, over the next several months, will continue to wage his campaign of Palestinian terror against Israel, but will "keep it below Sharon's level of tolerance."
Meanwhile, his allies in the region Iran, Iraq, and the Hizbollah terrorist organization "will rearm for a regional war against Israel," the report said.
"As the military brass sees it, Iran, Iraq, the Palestinians and Hizbollah want a regional war. Syria and Egypt are preparing for such a development. The brass is divided over whether Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will join such a coalition when the time comes," analysts said, in the report.
"In every meeting with U.S. officials, Mubarak has pledged he will stop such a war. But in public, the Egyptian president has been talking very tough," said the report.
The "time frame" for such a war is "between October and the end of this year," analysts said, according to the report. [7am.com and Stratfor Intelligence - 8 June 2001]
[MIDDLE EAST NEWSLINE - Tel Aiv - Thursday, June 7, 2001] The continued rise in the price of oil could undermine Israel's strategic edge over its enemies in the Middle East, leading strategists said.
The Israeli strategists said the increase over the last year of oil has filled the coffers of key Arab states as well as Iran. They said that should oil prices remain at their current level for the next two or three years, then Israel could face an array of advanced Russian and Western weaponry from such countries as Iran, Egypt and Syria.
"This is worrisome," said Shai Feldman, director of Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. "It could affect the military balance, particularly in Iran."
Iran is said to be in the advanced stages of negotiations for Russian systems, including the S-300V, regarded as one of the best anti-aircraft systems in the world with the capability of missile defense. Egypt and Syria are also interested in such a system, with a range of up to 300 kilometers, and have discussed such a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Feldman and his colleagues were speaking on Monday during the release of the center's latest publication, "The Middle East Military Balance 2000-2001. The strategists said Israel currently enjoys clear military superiority against any Arab state or Iran and could defeat virtually any Arab coalition.
This superiority, Feldman said, has prevented a regional war despite the eight-month-old conflict with the Palestinians.
"The Palestinian violence is a top level strategic challenge to Israel but it does not reduce Israel's overall strength," Feldman said. "The strategic balance remains tipped in Israel's favor and the capability for deterrence acts as a buffer against decline in the region."
[MIDDLE EAST NEWSLINE - Jerusalem - Saturday, June 9, 2001] Israel has for the first time issued a detailed account of Iranian support to the Palestinians in their war against the Jewish state.
Israeli officials said Teheran sends weapons to Syria. From there, they are relayed to Lebanon and received by the Hizbullah and the Islamic Jihad.
The Iranian weapons are then smuggled to the West Bank and Gaza Strip through neighboring countries such as Jordan and Egypt. The officials said Egypt has done little to stop the smuggling, although Jordan has taken preventive measures.
Officials said several squads of Palestinian attackers have already infiltrated Israel and are preparing attacks on Israeli civilian targets. The result has been a high alert by Israeli security forces.
Israel has raised the weapons issue with Egypt, the officials said. Cairo has not acknowledged that the Palestinians are smuggling the weapons through the Sinai peninsula and over the border into the Gaza city of Rafah.
"We can't say Egypt is actively helping the Palestinians smuggle weapons," a senior Israeli military official said. "What we can say is that Egypt has done very little."
The United States has also raised the assertions of Palestinian weapons smuggling through Egypt with President Hosni Mubarak. A key issue concerns Israeli charges that the Egyptian border at Rafah is virtually open for Palestinians, leaving Israeli soldiers to try to stop infiltration and smuggling under fire from snipers in Rafah.
The Israeli assertion was issued during Israel's current ceasefire with the Palestinians. Officials said the ceasefire would continue until the launching of a major Palestinian attack on Israeli civilians.
But Science Minister Matan Vilnai said Cabinet ministers would not automatically approve any military response to a Palestinian attack. Vilnai said the key would be whether the proposed Israeli target is deemed as connected to the Palestinian attackers.
On early Friday, Palestinian gunners fired mortars toward Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip
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| Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/6/243.htm |