It's quite a complicated game now. Both Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat are veterans like few others. And both know that after a lifetime dedicated to this struggle to vanquish the other this may be their last time up to bat.

[Ha'aretz - Tuesday, July 10, 2001] Only the fading bumper stickers from the winter campaign are left as a reminder that Ariel Sharon promised peace. Even Shimon Peres isn't talking about a new Sharon, "who doesn't want his career to end in smoke and flames." In private conversations with friends, the eternal optimist has narrowed his vision to a peace between Sharon and Yasser Arafat.

In the last few days, Peres's only excuse for his seat in the government is the holy mission to prevent war between the two. Peres warns that if he's out of the government, Sharon's invasion of the territories is a matter of weeks, if not days.

For three months there have been rumors of a new version of Big Pines (the 1982 Lebanon invasion plan), written especially for the territories. The rumor hovers over the planet like a storm, with everyone talking about it but nobody knowing if and when it shows up.

In early May, the Foreign Report section of Janes - a particularly serious journal - published details from what was purported to be Sharon's plan to reoccupy some of the West Bank's towns and once and for all put an end to the Palestinian Authority.

The report even mentioned a casualty estimate - 1,000 Palestinians and 100 Israelis. The last paragraph was the most interesting. It said that the U.S., Britain, and France have not only been informed of the plan's details but have also given Sharon a green light to strike at Arafat if the Palestinians don't cease the violence. Only the French, said the report, are opposed to any escalation.

Someone told Arafat about the report. In one of his first conversations with U.S. envoy William Burns (who's now in the region spending the weekend in Beirut), Arafat asked the American what he knew about the plan.

Burns said that Sharon didn't divulge anything to the U.S. about conquering the territories. So, in any case, said the diplomat, the U.S. government did not give any agreement, authorization or blessing to such a plan.

The clouds of war also flew with Sharon to Europe. In Paris they also apparently read the Janes report about European disagreements over a plan to get rid of Arafat.

"It's not only France that believes Arafat is your peace partner," French President Chirac and Prime Minister Jospin told Sharon. "Europe is united that a peace agreement will be reached with him, not against him and not without him." They were very polite about it, of course.

By the way, when Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz is asked about "the plan" he shrugs and says he never saw nor heard about any plan to reoccupy the territories.

But he phrases his answer so carefully that it's hard to understand if he is also denying that his top desk drawer is holding a similar hit-and-run plan.

Members of the cabinet swear that they haven't ever been asked to approve a plan to reoccupy the territories - but they also say they won't be surprised if they hear on the radio that our troops are storming Arafat's headquarters.

Along with the report from Paris about Sharon's visit, the Washington Post reported on waves of criticism against the Bush Administration in the Arab world. The newspaper, which described the Sharon visit to the U.S. capital as much less successful than what most of the Israeli reported, said that the American initiative against Saddam Hussein is being interpreted by many Arabs not as a way to defend the Gulf but "as a way to oppress the only country that has the power to threaten Israel."

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell apparently knows what would happen to the sanctions he wants on Iraq on the day after Israel invades the territories.

In their discussions with the Europeans, the Americans sign on to every word the French told Sharon about the need to immediately start implementing the full Mitchell Report. They also agree that Sharon can not be the policeman of the cease-fire, its judge and its executioner. Would Sharon agree to Arafat's being the sole judge of whether Israel is living up to its commitments to freeze the settlements - and the one who decides how much force to use against a violation.

If it were up to Peres, he would invite the CIA to monitor the cease-fire and go immediately to the confidence-building measure stage, including economic aid to the Palestinians. Sharon, so far, refuses to hear a word about outside monitors. Around Peres they are saying that's where the cracks might grow in the national unity government - and they hope that as usual, Foreign Ministry Director General Avi Gil will whisper a wonder formula into Sharon's ear that saves the situation.

There are signs that if it were up to Powell, he wouldn't mind using a smart sanction or two to make clear to Sharon that he can't put the key to U.S. interests in the region in the hands of any crazed Hamasnik. The instructions from the Oval Office, as of now, are to avoid direct confrontations with Sharon. That's why Powell wasn't stubborn about the monitors for the cease-fire. It's also why he makes do with State Department spokesman's statements against the targeted assassinations.

The impending arrival of Dan Kretzer as the new ambassador in Tel Aviv - and a member of the inner circle of participants in the diplomatic dance - could help Powell explain to his president the meaning of a war in the territories. Kretzer is coming here after a long term in Cairo. He knows a thing or two about the anti-American mood that the Israeli occupation inspires in the Arab capitals. Communications Minister Reuven Rivlin joked last week to outgoing U.S. Ambassador Martin Indyk that he always goes to one of Indyk's farewell parties to make sure Indyk is really going.

Kretzer will find a man after his own heart in the American consulate in Jerusalem: Ron Shlicker, who also has served in many Arab capitals. Shlicker recently appointed a special consul for urban affairs, Robert Waller. And one of Waller's first actions was to ask Meretz city councillor Meir Margalit, for an update on Ehud Olmert's plans for demolishing building without licenses.

If you add Kretzer and Shlicker to Burns, an alumnus of the Amman embassy, the result is a powerful lobby for deeper American involvement in the conflict. Rivlin and company will soon be longing for the days of Indyk and Dennis Ross.

A.B. Yehoshua pointed to the Palestinian neighborhood across the way. He said that he wanted to sneak in one night to one of the bedrooms to hear what the neighbors have to say about us. Toward the end of Sunday's meeting of Israeli and Palestinian intellectuals, someone stuck a Hebrew letter into Hanan Ashrawi's hands. She whispered to Dr. Ron Pundak, who was sitting beside her, that it was demolition orders from Jerusalem city hall for 25 Palestinian homes. Yesterday, not a stone remained of the bedroom the Israeli novelist wanted to see. Maybe that's what Palestinian Culture Minister Yasser Abed Rabo meant when he said that he wanted his guest from Haifa to turn into a Palestinian from Ramallah, for an hour.

The discussion in the hall in A-Ram in northeast Jerusalem sometimes felt like group therapy for aging couples who are clinging to one another with the last of their strength. "We've been through worse," Abed Rabo said, trying to be encouraging, though it was hard to tell if he was trying to convince the guests or himself. He recalled the first Intifada and Yitzhak Shamir.

Prof. Galia Golan, a Peace Now old-timer, remembered the romance of the first meetings between Israelis and Palestinians in the 1980s, when the words "Palestinian entity" stuck in the throat of Peace Now leaders. Ashrawi said that the current crisis and the effort to persuade the Israeli peace camp that there's a partner for peace is a throwback to the 1970s. Yair Tzaban, the grand old man of Meretz, seemed emotional as he recalled burying the victims of the Deir Yassin massacre and his struggle against the radical Jewish undergrounds during the War of Independence. Prof. Yuli Tamir gushed about her honeymoon with Ashrawi only a year ago, when Barak and Arafat were so close to a deal on formalizing relations between the two peoples at Camp David.

Like all of his Israeli colleagues who spoke, and like most of the Israeli "peace camp,' Amos Oz sounded like a cuckolded husband. He was promised two states for two peoples and got the Palestinian right of return to both sides of the Green Line. He knew exactly when his attitude to the Palestinians changed. He was watching the return of Arafat to Gaza from Camp David on TV and heard the crowds chanting "welcome Salah a-Din." Now he has given up the dream of one big happy family with the Palestinians and is ready to make do with prosaic neighborly relations. He said that sometimes peace and justice are opposites. A just peace for one side can be a death sentence for the other," he said.

It seems that the Palestinian intellectuals and politicians understand the way back to broken Israeli hearts is through Oz, Yehoshua, Tamir, David Grossman and Nissim Kalderone. But it's also difficult for the acting president of Bir Zeit University, Gabi Baramki, and his colleagues, to empathize with the sufferings of the occupier.

Along with the desire to start anew with the Israeli left, they don't understand why all Israelis sound like Sharon. "You've all become security fanatics." Albert Agezarian said he wouldn't be surprised if the Shin Bet would have asked to make sure it was safe to drink the lemonade served to the Israelis at the gathering.

The event ended like a blind date. Everyone said it was important to meet and to meet again and promised to stay in touch. Sure, they'll call. But they aren't so sure anything can come of it.

A joint statement was supposed to come out today. It was worked out by Yossi Beilin and Ron Pundak on the Israeli side and Ashrawi and Abed Rabbo, culture minister in the Palestinian Authority. There's a call for a cease-fire, a return to sanity, rehabilitation of the dialogue, and implementation of Mitchell in its entirety.

The problem came up, as expected, around the right of return and the Jewish indentity of Israel.

Beilin and Yuli Tamir were unable to convince Hanan Ashrawi that there's no way they'd be able to sell the Israeli public a statement that did not mention the Jewish identity of the state of Israel alongside the Palestinian state. Ashrawi, who has been consulting lately with MK Azmi Bishara, pulled out the argument of the post-Zionists: She doesn't understand how liberal Israelis can ask the Palestinians to recognize a theocracy.

Abed Rabbo spent a lot of time trying to persuade the Israelis that the claim that the right of return made the peace talks fail was an Israeli disinformation ploy. As evidence, he said that Arafat at Camp David distinguished between the overall refugee problem and the specific problems of the refugees in Lebanon and offered five ways for refugee rehabilitation - only one of which was return to Israel.

But when the Israelis suggested a reference to the need for a solution to the refugee problem in the joint statement, Abed Rabo said that in a written document he had no choice but to make sure there was a mention of the right of return.

[Ha'aretz 10 July 2001]: Everybody seems to be waiting for the big bang: the military onslaught against Arafat's forces, from Jenin to Hebron and from Gaza to Rafah, that will create chaos among the Palestinians and - in the same way the Big Bang 15,000,000,000 years ago blew our universe into existence - will bring forth new forces among the Palestinians, creating new dimensions of time and space in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza. Sharon's long-time supporters are convinced he is gritting his teeth, waiting for an opportune moment. It did not come, as some had expected, after Sharon's return from his meeting with President Bush, and it did not come after his return from his meetings with Chancellor Schroder and President Chirac. Will it take another catastrophe like the Dolphinarium? Or will it come after patience has worn thin, after everything that could have been said has been said at the Cabinet debates between Shimon Peres (who continues to insist Arafat is our only hope) and the hard-liners?

In the meantime the debate continues. Will we be better off with Arafat out of the way, or is this irascible terrorist the best option on offer to Israel? If he informs us that he intends to return to Tunis or set up shop in Baghdad, are we going to beg him to stay? And in the meantime, the government's policy of restraint and unilateral cease-fire continues while Israelis are being killed on the roads, Psagot receives its nightly dose of bullets and Gush Katif its daily ration of mortar shells, car bombs are left to blow up in Israel's cities and suicide bombers are being prepared for their murderous missions.

Instead of attempting to divine what alternate futures hold in store for us, or arguing about whether Israel would be worse or better off if Arafat were to leave the scene, our government should be concentrating on immediate objectives - putting first things first. It is incumbent upon the government to protect the lives of Israel's citizens and it should be taking all possible measures to attain that objective. Even Shimon Peres should have no difficulty explaining a policy whose specific objective is protecting Israelis against murder - murder on the roads and murder in the streets of our cities. This is not primarily a matter of targeting individual Palestinians, but rather of extending protective cover to Israelis in danger of attack, interdicting terrorists on their way to attack Israelis, and taking initiatives in the field to abort acts of terror.

Too often we hear the lame excuse that the Israel Defense Forces cannot protect motorists on thousands of kilometers of highways in Judea and Samaria - that, in other words, we are destined to suffer daily murder on the roads until such time as we have given Arafat what he wants. The fact of the matter is that the stretches of highway on which Israeli motorists are endangered are far fewer, and focused military action on these stretches can produce results. The use of protective walls along the sides of roads is generally a waste of time and money. Unfortunately, after almost 10 months of killings on the roads, we are only now beginning to hear of plans to direct the IDF to focus on the roads, and we have yet to see the results.

Dealing with the danger of suicide bombers is also presented as an almost impossible task. The fact is that the entry of Palestinian suicide bombers into our cities is at present relatively easy and often it has only been luck that prevented additional catastrophes. The reason for this is that over 100,000 Palestinians, from Judea, Samaria, Gaza, and Jordan, move freely among us, many of them residing in Israeli cities and villages. Total anarchy reigns concerning the entry - legal or illegal - of Palestinians into Israel, their work and their residence here. In these circumstances it is relatively easy for Palestinian terrorists to move about in Israel, frequently receiving assistance from Palestinians who happen to be here. Thus, suicide bombers make it to their intended targets with relative ease. The terrorist who exploded himself at the Dolphinarium was driven there by a Palestinian from Qalqilya who resides in Jaffa and was asked by his friends in Qalqilya to drive the suicide-bomber from the Qalqilya check-point to Tel Aviv. The time has come to put an end to this state of affairs. As long as we are threatened by these kinds of outrages, the presence of over 100,000 Palestinians from Judea, Samaria, Gaza, and Jordan in our midst is a luxury we can ill afford.

If the measures required to restore safety to Israel's citizens are taken, the big bang may not even be necessary.

RAFAH REFUGEE CAMP, Gaza Strip (AP - July 10) - Moving tanks and bulldozers into a Gaza refugee camp early Tuesday, Israel demolished Palestinian homes it said served as cover for gunmen, triggering one of the fiercest gun battles since a truce was declared a month ago.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, meanwhile, laughed off persistent rumors that Israel's government is planning to topple him if he does not stop Palestinian attacks on Israelis. ``O mountain, you cannot be shaken by the wind,'' a smiling Arafat told reporters in the West Bank town of Ramallah, quoting an Arab proverb.

The Rafah raid came a day after Israel demolished 14 Palestinian homes in a refugee camp in Jerusalem on grounds they were built without permits. Palestinians have said it is virtually impossible for them to obtain building permits in Jerusalem.

For the second day in a row, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher criticized Israeli destruction of Palestinian houses on Tuesday, calling the moves ``highly provocative.''

At a briefing in Washington, he said the United States is ``deeply troubled,'' and ``urged an immediate halt to any further demolition of Palestinian homes,'' according to a transcript released by the State Department.

On Monday, Boucher had spoke against the tearing down of 14 houses in the Shuafat refugee camp near Jerusalem.

The Israeli moves threatened to further undermine a cease-fire negotiated by CIA director George Tenet. The truce went into effect June 13, but has been shaken by repeated acts of violence and deaths on both sides.

As the armor-plated bulldozers rumbled into the camp, Palestinians opened fire and threw grenades. Three Israeli soldiers were wounded, one seriously, the military said. Five Palestinians were wounded by Israeli fire.

The destruction was so complete that it was impossible to count the number of structures that once stood on the site in the Rafah camp along the Gaza-Egypt border, opposite an Israeli army post. An area of about 500 square yards was destroyed. Palestinian agencies gave varying numbers up to 24 houses and 11 shops, but there were several apartments and shops in each building, confusing the picture further.

Piles of rubble lay on the ground, and residents picked through the remains, looking for belongings, though the Israeli military said the structures were uninhabited and used only by Palestinian gunmen to fire at the army post on the Egyptian border.

An Israeli army spokesman, Lt. Col. Olivier Rafowicz, said 10 to 15 homes were demolished.

Mohammed Abu Libdeh, an engineer, watched with his five children as bulldozers destroyed his house. ``It is a barbaric action by them,'' he said. ``I spent all my savings to build this house and now I am homeless,'' he said.

The Israeli military said the area is under Israeli security control, under interim peace accords, because it is near the border. However, the Palestinians said the operation was an incursion into their territory. The army post on the border has come under daily gunfire and grenade attacks from the camp. The Israelis said hundreds of grenades have been thrown at the post, and they cleared away the structures to stop the attacks.

``It's a crime,'' said Arafat, talking to reporters. ``They have demolished these houses while the residents were sleeping in them.'' He said he would seek Arab and international involvement ``to stop these crimes.''

Arafat laughed off reports in the Israeli press that Cabinet ministers were calling for his expulsion because of more than nine months of violence. Reports from an Israeli Cabinet meeting Monday reflected deep divisions within Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's national unity government, with hard-liners calling for an offensive against Arafat and moderates counseling restraint.

Environment Minister Tsachi Hanegbi, from Sharon's Likud party, called for an operation including attack helicopters and warplanes, according to the Yediot Ahronot daily. Trade Minister Dalia Itzik of the Labor party warned that a small war might turn into a big war.

Sharon took the side of the moderates, pounding his fist on the Cabinet table in anger, according to the newspaper account, insisting that he has not limited the actions of the military.

Sharon, meanwhile, toured the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war. He assured Jewish settlers there that Israel would not withdraw from the Golan. ``This danger does not exist,'' he said. ``Today the reality is different.''

Peace negotiations between Israel and Syria, conducted by Sharon's predecessor Ehud Barak, broke down, though Barak offered to give back almost all of the territory.

Mid-East Realities

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Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/7/275.htm