Mid-East Realitieswww.middleeast.org

INVASION WATCH?

July 13, 2001

MID-EAST REALITIES © - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 4/01: What are we to call this situation? "War Watch"...no, the sides are far too uneven, it's not really going to be a war...not unless one or more of the Arab regimes should find itself cornered or facing revolution. "Invasion Watch"...not quite right either for the actuality is the Israeli army has never left the areas of the West Bank or Gaza but rather, through cover of "Oslo", repositioned itself in order to help the Arafat "Authority" police areas known as "A" and help out in areas categorized as " B", all the while expanding Israeli control. Do not forget that in the past decade of the disengenuous "Peace Process" the Israelis practically doubled the number of settlers living in the occupied territories and put in place the whole system of "by-pass roads" and apartheid-style policies that have substantially restricted Palestinians everywhere. If anyone has better terminology...please don't keep it to yourself.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is playing his cards with considerable craftiness. His latest little gambit is to again send his own son back to have a little chat with Yasser Arafat. Clearly he wants a totally secret means of communication with Arafat; or at least he wants to give that impression. Clearly he wants to try to portray himself before world public opinion not just as the former ruthless General and accused war criminal, but rather as a serious leader trying to prevent the very conflagration he is actually attempting to provoke and preparing to unleash.

ISRAELIS DEBATE WEST BANK INVASION

The Guardian, Thursday July 12, 2001 7:10 pm] JERUSALEM (AP) - After months of violence, Israelis are now openly debating the possibility of a military invasion of the West Bank and Gaza aimed at crushing the Palestinian Authority and ending the rule of Yasser Arafat.

Military and political officials confirm the army has readied plans for stepping up the use of force - but the cost in lives and the possibility of a wider regional conflict clearly are giving the government pause in going all-out.

``The army has plans to cover all the possibilities, but what counts is the Cabinet decisions,'' said Raanan Gissin, spokesman of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

``There are three options: surrender to Arafat, to go ahead with this plan - to occupy - or to continue the current course of restraint and self-defense. The government has said it's committed to peace but this situation can't last forever.''

One military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said a large-scale attack was about to be launched June 2 - the day after a suicide bomber killed 21 young people outside a Tel Aviv disco - but it was put off by Arafat's announcement, under intense European pressure, of a cease-fire. Talk of a massive assault has since intensified as Israelis have grown increasingly exasperated with the failure of a cease-fire to take hold. Mortar attacks and even bombings inside Israel continue, and Jewish settlers are targeted in near-daily shootings.

The Israeli media has taken to treating the possibility of a serious escalation - even a reoccupation of the West Bank and perhaps Gaza - as something of an inevitability, set to be triggered by the next major terrorist attack.

``An unusual consensus has taken hold (and) all roads are leading to a catastrophe,'' wrote Chemi Shalev in the Maariv daily. ``A few days after the war breaks out, suddenly everyone will remember how horrible war is ... when it will be too late.''

Palestinian Planning Minister Nabil Shaath said Sharon - currently visiting Italy - presented far-reaching plans to American and European leaders. ``I know that both President Bush and (French President Jacques) Chirac spoke very clearly to Sharon about this issue and warned him against the great dangers of such a policy,'' he told The Associated Press. ``One has to take this seriously because other threats have been carried out.''

Commentator Haim Hanegbi warned Israel's leaders that if they ordered an invasion they could eventually face the same fate as Slobodan Milosevic, the former Yugoslav president now facing a war crimes trial in The Hague.

But Communications Minister Reuven Rivlin told AP that continued attacks ``will not leave Israel any alternatives. I have no doubt the prime minister wants to avoid a war as much as possible ... but if Arafat forces us to go to war, we will go to war.''

The Yesha Council representing the 200,000 Jewish settlers, a key source of support for Sharon, issued a statement Thursday calling on the prime minister to wait no longer and ``order the army to ... distance Arafat from the region and dismantle the Palestinian Authority, the largest terrorist organization in the world.''

Industry Minister Dalia Itzik, a member of the moderate Labor Party, warned that such pressure from Sharon's political base might have an effect. ``The scent of war is in the air,'' she said. ``It is as if it is an unimportant matter, as though at the end of this war we won't be burying our dead. Apparently nobody has learned from history. I very much hope that the prime minister will withstand this pressure.''

A top military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AP that one plan proposed by the army was to move into Palestinian areas and arrest the dozens of militants who are behind the violence - then move out and leave Arafat's regime in place.

But Israeli and foreign media have been rife with detailed reports about more far-reaching proposals as well.

Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres on Thursday denied a report in the British journal Foreign Report, which said the Israeli military submitted a plan to the Cabinet to send 30,000 troops into the Palestinian areas, if another large-scale Palestinian terror attack takes place.

Under the reported plan, the Israeli troops would seek to destroy the installations of the Palestinian Authority, disarm the Palestinians and cause the flight of the entire leadership, including Arafat.

Analysts agree that under such a scenario hundreds of Israelis and probably thousands of Palestinians would be killed.

But Gerald Steinberg, director of the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, said that some rhetoric was intended just for effect.

``One of the reasons that you talk about plans is to send out a warning, not just to Arafat but also to the international community to sit on Arafat not to allow this level of violence,'' he said.

``There are still a lot of lesser steps Sharon could take. I would be very surprised if (the invasion plan) was adopted.''

SON OF ISRAEL'S SHARON TALKS PEACE WITH ARAFAT

JERUSALEM, July 13 (Reuters) - Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon sent his son to meet Palestinian President Yasser Arafat overnight while some of the heaviest gunbattles in months raged in the West Bank, an Israeli official said on Friday.

"Omri was sent to reiterate Israel's commitment to peace and to urge Arafat to carry out a complete end to violence," the official said.

Israeli media reported that Sharon, who is on a visit to Italy, had sent his son, Omri, to meet Arafat in the West Bank city of Ramallah late on Thursday after Attorney-General Elyakim Rubinstein approved the mission.

The younger Sharon has met Arafat at least twice on his father's behalf and is reported to have a good relationship with the Palestinian leader.

Israel's High Court ruled in May that Omri Sharon would only be allowed to make such contacts with Rubinstein's permission due to concerns that his family connections and lack of government credentials could compromise his role as emissary.

The meeting followed a Palestinian attack that killed a Jewish settler, triggering the heaviest gunbattle in the West Bank city of Hebron since the outbreak of a Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation nine months ago.

Sharon told reporters in Italy, where he is trying to drum up European pressure on Arafat to prevent attacks on Israelis, that he was committed to a political process but would follow a policy of "immediate response" to Palestinian attacks.

Arafat told Spanish television that Israelis were "escalating the military activities of their army and also protecting crimes of their settlers against our people."
Mid-East Realitieswww.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/7/280.htm