As for the collapse of the Agra summit, General Pervez Musharraf has probably considerably strengthened his hand at home, probably himself maneuvering to either avoid a real election in 2002 as previously promised, or else to win it. But in toying with the emotions of the entire region by going to a failed summit and ending it in the way that occurred tensions in the subcontinent may escalate further and a war that could include the use of nuclear weapons is closer than ever. In one rather ominous sign of how dangerous the situation in Kashmir is, during the three-day summit at least 80 persons were killed in fighting in Kashmir between indigenous Muslim fighters and the Indian Army.

[Sydney Morning Herald, 18 July]: The collapse of summit talks between India and Pakistan has plunged the region into a dangerous vacuum, with no progress on reducing the nuclear risk and worsening violence in disputed Kashmir.

"It is a disaster," said a Pakistani human rights activist, Ms Asma Jehangir, who attended the summit as an observer. "The Islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan will be cheering ... we may actually end up at some point with skirmishes leading to war."

Pakistan's military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, stunned his Indian hosts by flying home late on Monday without agreeing to a much-debated joint declaration, a vital road map for future relations. Not even the most cursory of concluding statements was issued.

Instead, India's Foreign Minister, Mr Jaswant Singh, was left to sift through the wreckage at a news conference the following morning, at which he expressed disappointment but said he hoped the "caravan of peace" would continue.

The acceptance by the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, of an invitation to visit Pakistan still stood, Mr Singh said. Moves to open more border crossing points and ease travel restrictions announced before the summit would still be implemented.

But the insurmountable obstacle to genuine peace - as it has been throughout the 54 years since the two neighbours gained independence - was Jammu and Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority State, which Pakistan says should have self-determination.

Despite eight hours of one-to-one talks between General Musharraf, 58, and Mr Vajpayee, 76, and the exchange of at least nine drafts of a communiqué, hardliners on both sides again prevailed.

India's Hindu nationalist leaders insisted that the joint statement include a reference to violence in Kashmir by Pakistan-backed Muslim separatists. In response, Pakistan demanded that any agreement refer to the aspirations of the Kashmiris, but this was rejected at a meeting of India's Cabinet committee on security on Monday night.

As officials worked in vain to close a deal, General Musharraf delayed his departure from Agra for more than nine hours. But shortly before midnight he drove to Mr Vajpayee's hotel, paid his respects, then drove to the airport and flew home.

The collapse of the summit leaves a proposed pipeline to carry Iranian gas to India via Pakistan in limbo, and the subcontinent's small nuclear arsenals under inadequate safeguards. More than three years since they tested nuclear weapons, the two countries have yet to agree on mechanisms to limit the risk of their accidental use.

The summit was also shadowed by an upsurge in violence in Kashmir, with 81 people - including 25 civilians - killed in clashes between security forces and armed separatists since Saturday.

Pakistani analysts said General Musharraf would be applauded at home for ignoring Indian concerns by meeting separatist leaders during his visit and walking away rather than compromising the Kashmiris' interests.

"He will be seen as having stuck to his guns," said Ayaz Amir, a Pakistani columnist.

But the failure to reach accord leaves Pakistan vulnerable to forces that Western diplomats say are undermining democracy and the fabric of a once-moderate Muslim nation - mainly the proliferation of armed Islamic fundamentalist groups mobilising hundreds of thousands of young zealots to fight in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

The summit result weakens Mr Vajpayee, who staked his reputation on a successful outcome and now faces a backlash at home.

NEW DELHI, India - 17 July -- Indian and Pakistani newspapers have blamed their differences over the revolt-racked territory of Kashmir for the failure of the neighbors to forge an agreement at their summit.

"A chasm too wide to bridge: Musharraf sticks to Kashmir," India's Economic Times said in a front-page headline on Tuesday.

The Pakistani daily The News accused India of torpedoing the weekend talks in the north Indian city of Agra, home to the famed Taj Mahal monument, that spilled into overtime on Monday.

"India ruins Agra Summit, refuses to include Kashmir in declaration; Indians were not sincere," it said.

But Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh told a news conference on Tuesday he was not disheartened by the outcome of the summit and India would "pick up the threads" and talk in future with Pakistan on the issues dividing the two nuclear-armed powers.

India's Hindustan Times said it was Musharraf's "one-note melody that has become the theme tune for the Indo-Pak summit: Kashmir, Kashmir, Kashmir" that led to the stalemate.

The Indian Express, chronicling the roller-coaster of hope and disappointment that culminated in the summit's collapse, said: "They broke the ice, then froze: Musharraf stands up, asks for more, Delhi says it's too much."

The Express said India's hardline Home (interior) Minister L.K. Advani was responsible for the failure to agree on a joint declaration referring to the "centrality" of the Kashmir issue.

It said Advani believed the declaration went too far and would offend supporters of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party which leads the federal coalition and its allies.

The Hindu newspaper's Strategic Affairs Editor C. Raja Mohan warned that relations now "between the two countries may well get worse before they get better."

The Pakistan daily The Nation said in a front-page column the outcome was the worst possible result.

"It was unreasonable to expect this summit would result in a solution," The Nation said.

"What the failure of the talks signifies is that we did not even agree to disagree -- and that is such a shame," it said.

'The issue ... is Kashmir'

Divided between Indian and Pakistani control, Kashmir is a flashpoint for violence between militants and the Indian army.

Since Muslim Pakistan was partitioned from predominantly Hindu India in 1947, the dispute over Kashmir has strained the relationship and led to two wars between the two neighbors over the territory.

India accuses Pakistan of fomenting the 11-year-old rebellion in the area of the territory it controls. Pakistan, which controls a third of the bloodied northern corner of the subcontinent, says it provides only moral support for the Kashmiri people's struggle for self-determination.

Musharraf -- a career soldier who turned politician when he took over in a bloodless coup in 1999 -- has blended a hard line on Kashmir and its "freedom struggle" with conciliatory language on the need to keep talking.

The visit served to soften the image of the Pakistani leader, whom many Indians blame for a 1999 border war between the countries in which about 600 Indian soldiers died. Killings continue

Musharraf's visit, marking the first summit since an undeclared war in northern Kashmir two years ago, was held against a backdrop of continued violence in the territory.

Thirty people were killed in confrontations between soldiers and Islamic militants Monday, taking the number of those killed during the summit to 86, The Associated Press reported.

Islamabad always has pressed for Kashmiris to be allowed to decide which country they would join, believing they would opt for Pakistan. India says Kashmir is not up for negotiation. CNN News

[Ha'aretz 17 July 2001]: The Indian Defense Ministry and Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) signed an industrial cooperation agreement last night for supplying Israeli weapon systems and technology. IAI will transfer technology and part of its production lines to Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL).

Among the large projects pending is the sale of three Phalcon early-warning aircraft and the upgrading of Indian Air Force planes in cooperation with Russia.

The financial potential of the cooperation agreement is estimated at $2 billion. The agreement was signed at IAI headquarters in Lod during a ceremony with senior members of the Defense Ministry taking part.

Among the main IAI projects in India is the Barak naval surface-to-surface missiles, in a deal worth $280 million and a plan for the development of the Super Barak missile whose operational range will be doubled. Another project involves unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for $300 million, and the Green Pine radar system, worth $250 million.

The latter is an integral part of the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system recently deployed in Israel. IAI is also involved in upgrading the Mil-8 and Mil-17 assault helicopters of the Indian armed forces.

The Defense Ministry and IAI have decided to adopt a cooperative approach with the defense industries of large client states in an attempt to further sales. The ties between IAI and HAL - the largest defense contractor in India - have the potential to prove highly profitable.

At the center of the potential projects is the upgrading of the fighter fleet of the Indian Air Force, which includes hundreds of MiG-21 and MiG-29, as well as advanced Sukhoi fighters.

India is interested in upgrading its aircraft with IAI avionics and it is believed that IAI will become HAL's subcontractor in the upgrading program, which will also involve Russia - the aircraft's maker.

Last night's agreement is considered a watershed in the relationship between Israeli defense industries and India, which began in 1992. An additional deal being discussed is the possibility of upgrading Indian T-72 main battle tanks, in which four Israeli firms may join forces. Another program, which has been undertaken by Soltam, is the development of a truck-borne howitzer for the Indian army. The estimated value of the two projects is $500 million each.

Mid-East Realities

www.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/7/290.htm