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MID-EAST REALITIES © - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 7/30: The report in Saturday's Ha'aretz is not up to their usual standards as names are misspelled and context missing -- it appears to be a journalistic quickie. But even so, and though the Israelis aren't going to admit it, they are becoming more nervous and insecure about their future. And among other reasons that's why they choose the heretofore unelectable Ariel Sharon as their Prime Minister. And that also provides much of the psychological explanation for why they act as they do -- much of their bravado is really fear, much of their arrogance really masks a dark desperation. The scars of the Holocaust may have healed on the surface, but not below.
By the way, the author of the report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is actually the same Anthony Cordesman who penned another major study many months back urging both the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli military to use more torture and even harsher means of brutal repression to deal with the Intifada. Looks like the Saudi Royal Family's London-based newspaper, Al Hayat, may not have put all this in perspective either.
And, oh yes, the timing...how convenient for the Israelis as they now whip up war hysteria among their own people near and far; plus of course make sure they have the Americans and the Europeans right where they want them. Anyone hear faint echoes here of 1967?
[Ha'aretz - 28 July]: A study published in recent days by an American research institute for strategic and international studies states that Israel would not be able to repel a comprehensive surprise attack from the Arab nations for a prolonged period of time. The study, headed by historian Anthony Kurdsman and published in its entirety in Saturday's edition of Al Hayat, says that the quantitative advantage of the Arab armies would eventually outweigh the qualitative advantages the IDF has over the Arab militaries.
According to the study, one of the reasons for the expected lack of Israeli success in repelling such an attack stems from the sensitivity of the Israeli public to casualties. Another of Israel's weaknesses mentioned in the report is the reaction to psychological warfare waged by enemies such as the militant Lebanese group Hezbollah, who have successfully used this tactic in the matter of the three IDF soldiers abducted by the group in October of last year.
The study, which also focuses on the balance of power in the Middle East, states that Saudi Arabia is the Arab country with the most modern air force, matching that of Israel. Kurdsman claims that Israel's efforts in recent years to develop a missile defense system have been at the expense of the navy.
Intelligence reports on Israel's nuclear capabilities states that Israel's arsenal contains some 400 nuclear warheads.
The study determines that Russia and China are Iran's main sources for weaponry. With regards to Syria, the study estimates that last year the Syrian army tested a Scud D missile with a 600-kilometer range. It was noted that according to information held by the United States Central Intelligence Agency, Egypt "has not given up its plans" to develop a ballistic missile, called "Victor" with a 1,200 kilometer range.
The editors of the study points out that unconventional weapons are the greatest danger in the region, saying that Iran will be able to develop a nuclear bomb in the next five years. Syria, the study states, will be able to produce bombs containing anthrax, a type of biological warfare, which according to the study, has an effect similar to that of a small nuclear warhead.
The study concludes that the Middle East is the most armed region in the world and that in 1997 the Arab countries spent some $20 billion on arms deals.
| Mid-East Realities | www.middleeast.org |
| Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/7/314.htm |