Mid-East Realitieswww.middleeast.org

EGYPT MIGHT MOVE ARMY INTO SINAI?

August 12, 2001

MID-EAST REALITIES © - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 8/12/2001: It's not likely to happen -- Egypt's Third Army moving into Sinai for the first time since 1973 -- but it could. And in the Middle East there are historical precedents that this is sometimes the way big wars start with an initial bombardment of threats, bluffs, feints, and then the confusion takes on a life of its own.

The Egypt of Hosni Mubarak is in more trouble than is generally recognized; and this kind of story in the Sunday Times may actually be Mubarak's way of getting noticed in Washington and playing to Egyptian pride at home. Corruption and nepotism have added considerably to the unspoken-about illegitimacy of an increasingly brutal and oftentimes harshly stupid regime. The Egyptian Gulag now has about 20,000 uncharged and untried "enemies of the state" in its dungeon-like prisons; including one of the latest additions, a well-known former American University Professor who dared write and talk about the phony "democracy" which is used to mask the police state realities. Economically and demographically Egypt is coming to a slow boil. Furthermore, just getting the yearly billions from the Americans is no longer so assured and no longer enough -- so this too may be causing the regime to think it has to take some steps to make Washington sorry some and take notice.

Pressured on so many fronts, and still in fact having diplomatic relations with the Israelis for fear of starting down the slippery slope, the Egypt of Hosni Mubarak may feel it really has to now do something to assuage public opinion with some kind of demonstration of Egyptian power and fortitude. It's happened before of course as the historians of the region and its wars know only too well..

All this said, it's not likely the Egyptian regime actually has a real war in mind; but even so the Israelis are not known for taking such posturing and possible troop movements in stride. Israel remains a relatively small though very powerful country; it can quickly mobilize its reserves but it cannot keep itself mobilized for long periods of time without severe economic and social strains.

The collapse of the disengenuous "peace process" led to the resumption of the Intifada led to an ever more brutal military occupation led to the Palestinian attacks in Israeli cities led to the high-tech assassinations campaign led to the low-tech suicide bombings led to the excuse to take Orient House... The end is definitely not yet in sight.

EGYPT THREATENS SHOW OF ARMED FORCE TO AID ARAFAT
Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv

[The Sunday Times, Tel Aviv, 12 August]: THE threat of a wider Middle East conflict is growing as the Egyptian government considers sending its 3rd Armoured Army into the Sinai peninsula if Israel moves into Palestinian territories.

In recent weeks Egypt has come under increased pressure from the Palestinians to help them. The Sinai option was confirmed by a senior Egyptian security source, who said the Israelis had to be deterred from "destroying" the Palestinian Authority and Yasser Arafat, its leader.

Under the terms of a 1979 peace agreement, Israel withdrew from the Sinai, which it had conquered in the six day war of 1967, while Egypt agreed not to eep substantial military forces there.

Palestinian sources said that last month Arafat reminded Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, that the country had other obligations: as a signatory of the Arab League's defence treaty, it had a duty to give military support to any fellow member coming under attack.

Arafat, the sources said, urged Mubarak to implement the treaty. Mubarak has so far taken no action, but has said that as long as Ariel Sharon is prime minister of Israel, there will be no peace in the region.

Israeli security sources say the possibility of Mubarak's intervention is now being factored into military planning. Any incursion into the Sinai would be viewed as a violation of the peace accord. Israel would send a substantial force to defend its southern border, raising the prospect of the first confrontation with Egypt since 1973.

Any encounter now would be no pushover for the Israelis. The Egyptian army has improved dramatically in the past 30 years, and is one of the most modern in the world. Its hardware is advanced and almost entirely American; its air force is well maintained and its navy bigger than Israel's, and stronger.

Israel's northern border is no less tense. Mubarak's special adviser, Osama al-Baz, said last month that if Israel attacked Syria, the Syrians would not be alone.

Israeli military intelligence warned in a recent report to the government that confrontation could follow on all borders if relations with the Palestinians deteriorated sharply.

With the anniversary of the Palestinian uprising approaching, Sheikh Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the extreme Iranian-backed Islamic group, has promised full military support to the Palestinians.

Intense Hezbollah preparations observed by Israeli intelligence over the past week have increased speculation about the group's intentions. It has built 20 to 30 outposts along the border between Lebanon and Israel. Iranian army units are keeping long-range rockets on standby in southern Lebanon, capable of striking northern parts of Israel.

The Israeli military also has to take another foe into consideration: Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Iraqi forces have advanced a tank division from a Republican Guard barracks near Baghdad towards the Jordanian border at least twice since the beginning of the intifada.

Senior officers say an Iraqi expeditionary army arriving on the Jordanian border would be a casus belli for Israel, although they hope allied air strikes would deter any such move. "We are sure they would be tackled by the Americans," said one officer.

On Friday, American and British aircraft bombed three sites in southern Iraq, the largest allied strike since February. Altogether, 20 ground-attack fighters were involved, backed up by 30 support aircraft, according to the Pentagon.

The official Iraqi News Agency said one person was killed and 11 were wounded.


Mid-East Realitieswww.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/8/338.htm