Mid-East Realitieswww.middleeast.org

NOW RUSSIANS PREDICT MID-EAST WAR SOON

August 13, 2001

RUSSIANS PREDICT REGIONAL WAR

Secret U.S.-Israeli Planning Likely Underway

MID-EAST REALITIES © - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 8/13: The Israelis have been trying for years now to "reconfigure" the Middle East to their further advantage. That's really what the war for Lebanon that erupted most fiercely in 1982 was all about; and its what the various responses to the Intifada have always been about as well -- most especially the disengenous "peace process" which has now worse than collapsed. It's also what the taking of Orient House and clamping down throughout the crucial Jerusalem area is all about -- getting ready. And for that matter it's also what the original Camp David agreement 23 years ago with Egypt and all the subsequent diplomatic moves have really been about as well.

Ariel Sharon is not the kind of man who is without strategy. His moves are not without purpose. For decades now, in various capacities, Sharon has manuevered his country and the region to today's situation -- no other single individual has had a greater influence on what has happened than he. Sharon has not only been preparing Israel, and the U.S. as well, for a regional war; he is quite likely planning to attempt to use that war to politically "reconfigure" the region to his own lifelong ideological goals -- Israel in control of everything to the West of the Jordan river and strategically superior to all the countries of the region combined, the Palestinians clearly defeated and quite possibly finding themselves in control one day east of the Jordan, no matter what promises have been made for decades now to the Hashemites.

These two articles published today from Middle East Newsline help explain what is likely to come at this point if the Israelis can't be stopped. And in a few weeks the Washington meetings being held about the U.S.-Israeli "strategic relationship" are quite likely to actually be secret war planning and war coodination meetings -- complete of course with all kinds of deception and smokescreens.

RUSSIA PROJECTS MIDDLE EAST WAR WITHIN SIX MONTHS

[Middle East News Line; World Tribune - Monday, August 13, 2001]: MOSCOW — Russian defense officials and strategists project that an Arab-Israeli war could erupt in the Middle East over the next three to six months.

The widely-held scenario described a war that would engulf Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, according to Middle East Newsline. The officials and strategists said Egypt could be swept into such a conflict.

"We are moving inexorably toward a war," a senior Russian diplomat said. "Russia has tried and the United States has tried to stop this, but to no avail."

Russian strategist Yevgeney Stanovsky agreed. Stanovsky, head of the Moscow-based Middle East Institute said a regional war is inevitable in wake of the failure of international efforts to implement a ceasefire.

The trigger for the war could take place in September. The Russian analysts expect an Israeli offensive against the Palestinian Authority triggered by Palestinian bombings of Israeli cities. Such an offensive, they said, could prompt Egypt to direct its Third Army to enter the Sinai.

The Third Army is scheduled to conduct an exercise near the Suez Canal next month.

In London, the London-based Sunday Times said Egypt is considering sending its Third Army into the demilitarized Sinai peninsula. The newspaper, quoting a senior Egyptian security source, said on Sunday that Cairo would send in the army if Israel moves into Palestinian territories.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the newspaper said, has come under increasing pressure to help the Palestinians. The Times said Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat said Egypt has committed itself to helping the Palestinians against any Israeli attack.

In Cairo, Arab League chief Amr Mussa warned of an impending catastrophe in the Middle East. Mussa said all efforts to prevent a regional breakdown appear to have resulted in failure.

On Wednesday, the Arab League convenes in emergency session to plan a public relations strategy. The meeting will be attended by the league's new spokeswoman, Palestinian legislator Hanan Ashrawi.

Egypt plans to launch a campaign to recruit international pressure against Israel. This will include Israel's closure of Palestinian institutions in Jerusalem.

For their part, Israeli officials said the threat of a regional war that would involve Egypt has been discussed in numerous forums. They said Mubarak has been giving orders to bolster Egypt's military readiness while he continues to be wary of Israel's strength.

"Egypt is the most hostile country to Israel within the international community and it should be treated as an enemy state," National Infrastructure Minister Avigdor Lieberman said. "This man passionately wants the destruction of Israel, but he knows he would lose in the event of an all-out war. This is why he is trying to destroy us piecemeal."

On Sunday, Syria held high-level military talks with China. Syrian Chief of Staff Gen. Ali Aslan met a Chinese military delegation on a visit to Damascus.

Syrian sources said the two sides discussed ways to promote military relations. U.S. officials said China has renewed missile component and technology exports to Syria and other Arab and Middle Eastern states.

ISLAMIC TENSION INCREASING IN JORDAN
[Middle East News Line; World Tribune - Monday, August 13, 2001]: AMMAN — Tensions continue to rise in Jordan amid Islamic opposition activities against the government.

The tensions have included rising criticism as well as the mass resignation by Islamic politicians.

Eighty members of the opposition Islamic Action Front have resigned from municipal councils in wake of the government's refusal to appoint mayors to leading cities. Instead, the government decided to merge municipalities.

Islamists hold majorities in such towns as Irbid, Ruseifa, Tafileh, Zarqa. The IAF is also heavily represented in the municipalities of Karak, Sahab and Madaba. Last week, the government replaced Irbid's Islamic mayor, Nabil Kofahi.

"This is part of a series of measures taken by the government to crack down on public freedoms," IAF secretary-general Abdul Latif Arabiyat said.

The government has launched other measures to limit the influence of Islamic fundamentalist opponents of the Hashemite regime including the appointment of student council members of University of Jordan. In another move, the president of Al Bayit University has been replaced after publishing an article that criticized the government.


Mid-East Realitieswww.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/8/341.htm