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SERIOUS AND CONFUSING DEVELOPMENTS IN ISREAL, EGYPT, SAUDI - KEY US ALLIES

September 23, 2001

MID-EAST REALITIES © - MER - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 9/23: There is a strange and growing tension coming from the Middle East this weekend; and we don't mean from Afghanistan and Pakistan this time, rather we mean from America's closest allies, Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. We're in no position to know for sure just what is happening. But in each of these countries very unusual and potentially historic developments are unfolding.

In Israel today Shimon Peres essentially boycotted the Sunday Cabinet meeting after being ordered at the last minute by Ariel Sharon not to meet with Yasser Arafat. At the same time Sharon made harsh statements condemning Arafat once again as an arch unrepentent terrorist, and the Israelis essentially put out an arrest warrant for the head of the Arafat's Fatah "Tanzim" forces, Marwan Barghouti. Yet at the same time Sharon also has mentioned in public a possible "Palestinian State", possibly dangling this in front of Arafat under pressures from the Americans, wondering if Arafat might just grab onto anything at this point to keep him and his entourage alive. In this overall context Peres had the following to say today and there are rumors he might resign tomorrow if he doesn't get his way, meet with Arafat, and offer him a way out with a rump disjointed "Palestinian State" that of course would not be really a State but which the Americans could and would use for their own purposes of the moment:

"When other countries and the peace of the world were in danger, the US stood by their side. And now, when the US is in danger, there is a need to stand together with it. In the 53 years of Israel's existence, there was not one request we made to the US that was not answered, and now the US is asking Israel to hold meetings with the Palestinians to quiet down criticism in the Muslim and Arab world... Tthe US is not requesting that Israel make territorial concessions or give up on its right of self-defense, but rather an Israeli contribution to changing the atmosphere before [the US] sends its sons to battle."

Shimon Peres Israeli Foreign Minister

In Egypt the long-time American-sponsored most-of-the-time puppet leader, Hosni Mubarak, longed joked about by his own people as "the Laughing Cow", has said more than once now that Egypt is not going to join the American "coalition" to "save the world from terrorism" -- even though the Americans keep saying "you are either with or us against us." Over the weekend Mubarak is quoted as publicly warning the Americans as follows:

"If you launch an attack against Afghanistan or another country on your list of rogue states, you will kill many innocent people, just as the terrorists killed many of your people. Don't play the game of your enemy. They want your reprisals to bring forth, from the blood and ruins of your bombing, a new generation of militants who will cry for revenge against the United States."

Hosni Mubarak President of Egypt

As for what is really going on in Saudi Arabia, that's even more difficult to fathom right now, but the sketchy and not very clear reports of a possible Palace Coup, with Crown Prince Abdullah and the more nationalist and religious circles taking charge and essentially sending King Fahd into de facto exile using the excuse that he is went to Europe because he needs to be sure of the best medical care... Well...who knows just what to believe at this point, though it is known that an international team of some 2 dozen doctors has been in Riyahd for some time now keeping Fahd alive and every conceiveable treatment and facility is available for the King in Riyadh. On Saturday the Washington Post did go with a careful front page story saying the Saudis has indeed refused to allow the US to use the newly completed best-in-the-region military Command Center to direct the new war. Normally we would be very circumspect regarding the following reports which may be originating from Israeli intelligence circles and may or may not have validity. But under the urgent current circumstances and in view of other surprising developments taking place we'll pass on these reports with all the above caveats and then keep an eye on things:

U.S. BEREFT OF ARAB COALITION AFTER
SAUDI ARABIA BACKS OUT

The United States has delayed the start of its offensive against Afghanistan and Osama Bin Laden, in retaliation for the terrorist strikes in New York and Washington, because of a dramatic turnaround of Arab support in the Middle East.

Saturday afternoon, it became clear that events in Riyadh had dealt the final deathblow to the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell's failed efforts to create an Arab front to bolster the Bush administration's world war on terror. The reason for King Fahd secret exit from Saudi Arabia, followed by a large royal party, is believed by our most reliable sources to be a palace revolution sparked by differences in the royal family over support for the US offensive against Afghanistan, Osama Bin Laden's terror network and other rogue targets. King Fahd and his Sudeiri faction, including defense minister Sultan, were in favor of letting the US place assault forces in forward bases on Saudi soil; the conservative, religious Crown Prince Abdullah, who runs the kingdom since King Fahd became ill, overruled him, backed by the religious establishment.

As a result, Saudi Arabia refused to let the US use the kingdom's new combined air operations command center at Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh, after Air Force Lt. Gen Charles Wald had been dispatched to the base earlier this week, to take command of US air forces assigned to the Middle East and Southwest Asia. His mission was to run the air war from the new, sophisticated air base opened this summer, a base linked to Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates and Seeb in the Sultanate of Oman. The Saudi base was also to have been the central command post not only for the 175 aircraft already based in the region for patrolling south Iraq's no-flight zone, but also for directing attacks from other bases in the region in the new war offensive.

When General Wald landed in Saudi Arabia with his top aides on Tuesday, September 18, he was told he had no command base. That was when the feuding inside the royal house over its role in the American war against terrorism reached its climax. The monarch's defeat in the argument inside the palace was apparently the main reason for his abrupt departure the next day, Wednesday, September 19.

The Pentagon has since then been casting about for replacement bases of operation and holding up the onset of the scheduled US campaign. Military sources believe that one of General Wald's options for his command post is the Bahrain. Some of the fighter craft due to have been based in Saudi Arabia have been moved to Incerlik, the big air base in South Turkey, after Anakara made all its bases available for the American war effort, and the Uzbek military airport of Tuzel, 15 km. from Tashkent. Large-scale air and commando forces also landed Saturday in Tadjikistan, on the border of Afghanistan.

The American forces are now laboring to catch up with their schedule for the operation. The upset in Riydah also sent the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat racing to Riydah to meet Crown Prince Abdullah and update his own strategy with the turn of events in the royal house. Palestinian experts expect Arafat to turn tail and back out of the accommodations he broached under US and European pressure - including his commitment to a ceasefire.

According to Washington sources, the Bush administration realizes it has been let down by the Arab world, chiefly the Saudis and President Mubarak of Egypt, in its first steps to launch an international campaign to defeat world terrorism. It will go ahead, but not forget in a hurry.

SAUDIS IN FLIGHT

King Fahd Bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia has been secretly flown out of the kingdom to his palace in Geneva, Switzerland. The royal mobile hospital fitted aboard Boeing 757 HZ-HMED landed in the private VIP section of Geneva airport ednesday afternoon, September 19. A palace conclave led by Crown Prince Abdullah, who effectively rules the kingdom, decided to remove the chronically ailing monarch to safety, fearing he might be stranded in the middle of a military crisis arising from the impending US offensive in the region.

The royal hospital plane was accompanied by another craft of the royal flight carrying the king's family and entourage.

The possibility of a major terrorist attack on the royal palaces being sparked by the outbreak of hostilities was also taken into account in Riyadh. A group of princes was therefore carried to a safe place in the additional fleet of 10 royal aircraft that ferried members of the Saudi royal family to Geneva. More than a dozen Mercedes waited on the tarmac of Geneva International Airport to collect the royal arrivals.
Mid-East Realitieswww.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2001/9/403.htm