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Pakistan on Brink of Backlash, Chaos, War

India is likely to strike sooner or later, doing so on behalf of and in coordination with both Israel and the U.S. regardless of what those parties say in public. Whether India will wait for General Musharraf to loose control -- at that could come at any time -- is uncertain to everyone, probably including those in charge in New Delhi. But for sure they, like the Israelis whom they rhetorically sound more and more like everyday, are clearly continuing to prepare to strike, both militarily and politically, at a moment of greatest Pakistani vulnerability.

The very public test last week of a new medium-range missile, on top of all the escalating rhetoric posturing, was clearly designed to send a serious message to Islamabad: Submit to our demands, but if you do not, and should war come, do not even think of using your nuclear weapons or we will totally destroy you. India is 1 billion+ people, Pakistan 140 million. The conventional Indian armed forces are more than twice the size of Pakistan. India is preparing to use its considerable military power to enforce its will in Kashmir, thinking it can one way or another cower the Pakistanis into not widening the war beyond that region. It is an exceedingly dangerous gamble, especially as the emotions of both countries are already inflamed.

Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S.-China confrontation -- which has not quite reached that level in daily public discourse -- continues. The American attempt to bug the Chinese leader's plane with the most secret satellite activated devices failed; American sanctions of various kinds against various Chinese companies have not been applied overall, and President Bush is about to visit the Chinese capital at this most sensitive time. The U.S.-Chinese relationship, and the still-escalating arms/technology race between them, is heating up even as leaders on both sides try to contain it and push it under the journalistic radar.

As for the kidnapped Wall Street Journal reporter and the charges he is in some way connected with the CIA. Unfortunately, due to the actions of the American government for some time, and of the CIA especially since 11 September, such charges are now widely believed and not without reason. American businessmen, academics, journalists, and tourists...all are being treated more suspectly now and this is likely to get considerable worse for the foreseeable future.

PAKISTAN RADICALS SLAM CRACKDOWN, WARN MUSHARRAF
PESHAWAR, Pakistan, Jan 27 (Reuters) - About 2,000 Muslim supporters of Afghanistan's ousted Taliban rallied in Pakistan on Sunday to denounce a crackdown on radical Islamic groups in the country and U.S. treatment of prisoners from the Afghan war.

The rally was the first show of strength by the groups since military ruler General Pervez Musharraf announced on January 12 a string of measures to combat rising militancy and sectarianism.

Leaders of the rally said they had the right to wage jihad, or holy war, and warned Musharraf they could force him from power at any time.

The protesters, who gathered at a football ground in Peshawar, near the Afghan border, also denounced what they called the inhuman and insulting treatment of al Qaeda and Taliban prisoners by U.S. forces and demanded the "act of barbarism" stop.

The United States, which has moved 158 of its Taliban and al Qaeda prisoners to a jail in Cuba, has been accused by human rights groups and some politicians at home and abroad of treating the prisoners inhumanely -- charges denied by Washington.

A statement issued at the end of the rally said restrictions Musharraf imposed this month on mosques and Islamic schools, known as madrassas, would be resisted and called on activists to gather for another protest in Lahore on February 3.

"We can remove Musharraf whenever we want to," Syed Munawar Hassana, secretary general of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party, told the rally.

Musharraf, who outlawed five Islamic militant groups blamed for violence in Pakistan and India, said his country would not be used as a base for launching attacks elsewhere and announced measures to regulate mosques and madrassas.

Nearly 2,000 people, most of them members of the banned groups, have been detained in the clampdown and some 650 group offices were shut and sealed.

Shortly after the September 11 attacks on the United States, Musharraf cut support for Afghanistan's hardline Taliban rulers, who had given refuge to Saudi-born militant Osama bin Laden, prime suspect in the attacks on New York and Washington, and his al Qaeda network.

The decision to dump the Taliban angered many radical Muslims in Pakistan but violent anti-government protests petered out after a few weeks.

Prominent radical cleric, Maulana Samiul Haq, head of the 35-party pro-Taliban Pakistan-Afghanistan Defence Council, told the crowd Muslims would continue to wage jihad against non-Muslims in places such as Chechnya, Palestine and Afghanistan.

"Afghanistan is our backbone. Why can't we fight jihad in Afghanistan?" Haq asked the crowd. "The Taliban have lost in Afghanistan but we are not disappointed nor discouraged," Haq said as the crowd chanted slogans in support of fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and bin Laden.

Several senior Taliban leaders graduated from Haq's madrassa near Peshawar.

A spokesman for one of the groups outlawed by Musharraf denounced the ban and said the group would continue to operate. "We do not accept this ban on religious parties," said Abid Paracha of the militant Sunni Muslim Sipah-e-Sahaba group.

Late last week courts in Peshawar released 28 people detained in the recent crackdown after they submitted statements saying they had severed links with the banned groups. Nineteen of those released were from the Sipah-e-Sahaba and nine were from its Shia Muslim rival, the Tehrik-e-Jafria, court officials said.

U.S. REPORTER FOR WSJ MISSING MANY DAYS IN PAKISTAN

By Andy Soloman
ISLAMABAD, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Pakistani police searching for missing U.S. reporter Daniel Pearl said on Sunday they had interrogated five men in connection with the case, but had no idea where the journalist was.

They also dismissed as a hoax an e-mail saying Pearl had been kidnapped which a U.S. official said had been sent to some U.S. and Pakistani media by a group calling itself "The National Movement for the Restoration of Pakistani Sovereignty."

A police official in Lahore, capital of populous Punjab province, said the five men who were briefly detained were involved with a Sunni Muslim group thought to have links to banned pro-Kashmiri separatists and the shadowy al Qaeda network of fugitive Saudi militant Osama bin Laden.

"They were interrogated in connection with Daniel Pearl's disappearance," said the Lahore police official, who asked not to be identified.

"Pearl was actually trying to interview the head of that group who is reported to have good connections and contacts in groups close to al Qaeda," he said. The five were released after four hours of questioning.

A nationwide hunt was launched after Wall Street Journal reporter Pearl, 38, went missing on Wednesday in the volatile southern city of Karachi.

KIDNAPPED?

The U.S. official said the e-mail stated Pearl had been kidnapped because he was an agent for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and was being kept in "inhumane" conditions to protest against U.S. treatment of Taliban and al Qaeda prisoners being held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

The United States has been accused by human rights groups and some politicians at home and abroad of treating the prisoners in Cuba inhumanely -- charges denied by Washington.

"We have checked the e-mail," said a Karachi police official. "I can only say it's a hoax, we're not taking it seriously."

CIA spokesman Bill Harlow told Reuters: "Although we do not normally discuss such matters, in this case I can assure you that Mr Pearl does not now, nor has he ever, worked for the CIA."

Pearl, who is based in the Indian city of Bombay, had been in Karachi working on a story about Richard Reid, the alleged shoe-bomber charged with trying to blow up an airliner last month, press group Reporters sans Frontiers said on Saturday.

Reid, a British national who allegedly visited Pakistan shortly before the incident, is said by U.S. officials to have trained with al Qaeda, the group blamed by Washington for the September 11 suicide plane attacks on the United States.

Senior government officials say they are concerned about Pearl's fate. "We don't have any clue where he is," Brigadier Mukhtar Ahmed, interior secretary for Sindh province, of which Karachi is the capital, told Reuters. "We are making our efforts to trace him and have extended the investigation to all four provinces. Right now I can only say the process of investigation and search is going on," he added.

INDIA SENDS STRONG SIGNAL WITH MISSILE TEST

By Sanjeev Miglani

NEW DELHI (Reuters - 25 Jan) - India Friday tested its nuclear-capable Agni ballistic missile amid a tense military stand-off with Pakistan, sending a powerful message to the world community and its domestic audience.

The successful test occurred at 8:45 a.m. off India's east coast, a defense ministry official involved in the missile development program told Reuters. ``All parameters were met,'' he said.

The test was apparently conducted at short notice and could trigger a retaliatory test by Pakistan even though defense analysts see the Agni more as a deterrent against India's other nuclear-armed neighbor, China.

The surprise test on the eve of Republic Day, India's most important national celebration, is meant to send a message to the world and Indians that New Delhi is standing firm, analysts said.

``Making this test today sends out a very powerful signal,'' defense analyst and retired Lieutenant-General V.R. Raghvan told Star New Television.

Bharat Karnad, a strategic analyst at New Delhi's Center for Policy Research, said the government was trying to counter a perception its Pakistan strategy was influenced by the United States and other foreign powers.

``This is a means of self-assertion,'' he told Reuters. ``It's meant to send signals to both foreign and domestic audiences.''

The Agni, meaning ``fire'' in Hindi, has a range of more than 1,250 miles, but senior officials said a longer version was tested last January. The missile is a key element of India's plan to build a credible minimum nuclear deterrent against China and Pakistan.

The United States and other foreign governments have been pressing India for restraint in its latest row with Pakistan, and for both sides to scale down their military deployment.

The hostile neighbors have massed about a million men along their border after India blamed a December 13 suicide raid on its parliament on Pakistan-based militants, demanding Islamabad crush the groups and surrender 20 people on its most-wanted list. The dispute has stoked fears of war between the two countries who have fought three wars since independence in 1947 and conducted tit-for-tat nuclear tests in 1998.

Thousands of police and paramilitary forces, backed by anti-aircraft guns, have deployed around New Delhi ahead of Saturday's January 26 Republic Day parade. Although scaled down this year because of the border build-up, the parade is traditionally a grand display of India's military might and will include an Agni prototype.

After the parliament raid and this week's killing of four police guards outside a U.S. cultural center in Calcutta, authorities fear militants will use the symbolically important day to strike the capital again.

PAKISTAN SAYS INDIA TESTS THREATENS STABILITY

ISLAMABAD (Reuters - 25 Jan) - Pakistan said Friday a ballistic missile test by arch-rival India threatened stability in the region but Pakistan had the means to defend itself.

A foreign ministry statement said New Delhi had informed Islamabad of the test in advance but it was ill-timed given a tense military standoff between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

``We hope the international community will take note of this Indian behavior, which is prejudicial to the pursuit of stability in our region, especially during the current situation,'' the Pakistan foreign ministry said in the statement. ``On its part, Pakistan favors a policy of restraint in the region,'' it added.

India Friday successfully tested an Agni missile off its east coast, a defense ministry official involved in the program told Reuters.

The foreign ministry said Pakistan had the means to defend itself and did not conduct missile tests unnecessarily.

``We test when it is technically required in the process of development and validation of our missile capabilities,'' it said.

India and Pakistan, which have fought three wars since independence from Britain in 1947, conducted tit-for-tat nuclear weapons tests in May 1998. The two countries' armed forces have been locked in a standoff along their border since shortly after a December 13 attack on the Indian parliament which India blamed on Pakistan-based Muslim militants fighting its rule in disputed Kashmir.

U.S. HITS CHINA WITH SANCTIONS OVER ARMS SALES

By Bill Gertz
[THE WASHINGTON TIMES - 25 Jan]: The Bush administration imposed economic sanctions on China yesterday after Beijing was caught selling chemical- and biological-weapons equipment to Iran.

It was the second time in four months that sanctions were imposed on China for its sales of weapons of mass destruction, products and missile goods.

In September, the State Department imposed sanctions on the China Metallurgical Equipment Corp. and Pakistan's National Development Complex. Those sanctions were for Chinese missile-related sales.

"We imposed penalties on three Chinese entities, pursuant to the Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher told reporters yesterday.

The sanctions come weeks before President Bush will visit China as part of a tour of Asia. He is set to leave Feb. 16 for China, Japan and South Korea. The sanctions were imposed on two companies and one person, Q.C. Chen, Mr. Boucher said.

"The penalties were imposed for the transfer to Iran of equipment and technology that's used for the manufacture of chemical and biological weapons," Mr. Boucher said. The equipment is controlled under a forum known as the Australia Group.

A Chinese Embassy spokesman could not be reached for comment. Spokesmen for the companies and the person sanctioned also could not be reached.

The sanctions were imposed because the transfer "violated the provisions of the law" that require sanctions for chemical and biological weapons sales, Mr. Boucher said. A U.S. intelligence official said at least one of the chemical-related shipments took place in April and was tracked by U.S. intelligence agencies. No other details on the transfer were made public.

"We've had a long-standing dialogue with China on nonproliferation issues and overall sought to get China to abide by or impose similar standards to those that the rest of the international community follows when it comes to these kinds of transfers," said Mr. Boucher.

Mr. Boucher said the sanctions are "comparable" to those imposed last year for China's missile-related sales to Pakistan.

The missile components were tracked to Pakistan's Shaheen missiles, which are nuclear-capable and thus violated a pledge made by the Chinese government not to export missiles or related goods that could be used for nuclear delivery systems.

Mr. Boucher would not comment on how the Chinese transfers had helped the Iranian chemical- or biological-weapons program.

A notice in the Federal Register, the U.S. government's official notification outlet, stated that the three companies had sold equipment to Iran that violated the statute.

The three Chinese entities hit with the sanctions were identified as Liyang Chemical Equipment; the China Machinery and Electric Equipment Import and Export Co., and Q.C. Chen. One of the companies produces glass-lined equipment, which can be used to produce chemical weapons. The sanctions bar the companies from doing business with the U.S. government and prevent them from getting any assistance from the United States. The companies are also banned from buying arms, arms-related goods or goods that require export licenses from the United States. The sanctions will be in place for two years.

Gary Milhollin, director of the private Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, said the person identified by the State Department, Mr. Chen, had been hit with sanctions in 1997.

Mr. Milhollin said the sanctions are ineffective since one of the entities was sanctioned in the past and continued its proliferation.

"It's a good thing to sanction these companies, but on the other hand, these sanctions don't really have any teeth," Mr. Milhollin said. "We don't do business with these companies so there is no real penalty and thus no real impact on their activities."

"The big question for Bush's trip [to China] is whether China is really going to change its behavior after September 11," said Mr. Milhollin. "The fact that we had to sanction them shows they probably won't."

A CIA report to Congress made public last year said Iran was one of the most active states seeking to acquire nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and missile systems, primarily from Russia, China and North Korea. The CIA report said that before the last half of 2001 "Chinese firms had supplied dual-use [chemical-weapons]-related production equipment and technology to Iran." Sanctions were imposed in May 1997 on seven Chinese entities for boosting the Iranian chemical-arms program, the report said.

"Evidence during the current reporting period shows Iran continues to seek such assistance from Chinese entities, but it is unclear to what extent these efforts have succeeded," the report said.

Meanwhile, a senior State Department official said yesterday that the United States is stepping up efforts to pressure states that aid in the spread of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

John Bolton, undersecretary of state for international security, said in a speech to the Geneva-based Conference on Disarmament that the United States will use "every method at our disposal" to make sure terrorists do not get weapons of mass destruction.
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Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2002/1/591.htm