Mid-East Realities

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The Tremendous and Escalating Cost of US and Israeli Policies

In the worst case, a war with Iraq could cost the United States almost as much as the government spent in the last budget year -- nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections in a major report just released from the Committee on International Security Studies of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Of course the American Government isn't making such projections, certainly not in public anyway. And furthermore assertion of control of Iraqi oil, the world oil markets, and the Middle East region -- even if brought about through old-thinking neo-imperialistic modern-day military means -- apparently is thought by those who today have control of the Pentagon and military-industrial complex to be worth it all. The prices that may be paid in furthering the isolation of the U.S. in world affairs; in generating hatred into future years; and in the weakening of the social, economic, and political institutions of the United States; are also likely to be considerable if not unprecedented, however hard to precisely quantify and predict. The human cost to Iraq has already been incalculable. And the tremendous suffering and death in recent years in Lebanon, Palestine, Iran, Algeria, Afghanistan, et. al. -- considerably due to the policies of the U.S. and Israel -- is not only a backdrop to all of today's developements but in many ways the cause of 9/11 and thus of today's still escalating international crisis. The full 93-page report from the American Academy of Arts and Sciences can be found at: http://www.amacad.org/publications/monographs/War_with_Iraq.pdf

Study: Iraq War Could Cost $1.9 Trillion

By SIOBHAN McDONOUGH

WASHINGTON (AP - 6 Dec) - In the worst case, a war with Iraq could cost the United States almost as much as the government spent in the last budget year - nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections.

Researchers concluded in a study released Thursday that war with Iraq could cost the United States from $99 billion to more than $1.9 trillion over a decade.

The lower figure assumes a successful military, diplomatic and nation-building campaign; the higher figure assumes a prolonged war with a disruption of oil markets and a U.S. recession, the authors say in a study by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Both figures assume a U.S. involvement in the country for 10 years.

White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said it was premature to comment on cost estimates.

``War is the last resort,'' he said. ``We're hoping for a peaceful solution.''

The 1991 Persian Gulf War cost America an estimated $61 billion, but allies reimbursed all but about $7 billion. By some accounting methods, the United States may have even made a profit.

Direct military spending could range from $50 billion in a short campaign to $140 billion in a prolonged war with Iraq, said the study titled, ``War With Iraq: Costs, Consequences and Alternatives.'' The study was done by the academy's Committee on International Security Studies.

The report cautioned that aside from the estimates of direct military costs, all the numbers should be ``regarded as informed conjecture.''

Occupation and peacekeeping costs could be $75 billion in the best case to $500 billion in the worst, the study said. Reconstruction and nation-building costs are estimated at $30 billion to $105 billion, and humanitarian aid at $1 billion to $10 billion.

Economic ripples of war with Iraq are likely to spread beyond budgetary costs, with the prospect of raising the cost of imported oil, slowing productivity growth and possibly triggering a recession, the report said.

A prolonged disruption of world oil markets could cost the U.S. economy up to $778 billion, the researchers estimated. On the other hand, Iraq's huge oil resources could satisfy U.S. needs for imported oil at current levels for almost a century and otherwise benefit the economy by $40 billion.

A short war could actually benefit the United States in terms of its macroeconomic impact, which includes employment, by $17 billion. A long war, in contrast, could have a $391 billion negative effect.

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, founded in 1780 and based in Cambridge, Mass., is an international society of scientists, scholars, artists, business people and political leaders.

On the Net: American Academy of Arts and Sciences: http://www.amacad.org
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Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2002/12/779.htm