Also remember past MER articles outlining the struggle going on in Saudi Arabia within the Royal Family... that in a very important way there already is King Bandar because of the role the Saudi Ambassador plays in Washington...and that Bandar is the son of Saudi Defense Minister Sultan and is seeking the full title and crown with considerable American and Israeli assistance (with the iceberg analogy even more applicable here as well).

The United States has determined that Saudi Arabia - beset by rising unrest and economic hardship - is no longer a secure oil supplier. A report by the U.S. Energy Department warned that Saudi oil supplies can be blocked by unrest or a war in the Persian Gulf. The scenarios include a possible U.S. war with Iraq or Iran.

"It is a combination of extremely unlikely conditions in 2002," the report said. "In sum, Saudi Arabia has to face a serious deterioration in its finances and its economic situation in 2002 and possibly for several years to come after two years of relative abundance."

The report said revenues are expected to drop to $49.6 billion this year from $58.2 billion in 2001 and nearly $68 billion in 2000. The kingdom's economic growth is not expected to grow in real terms during 2002 after an increase of 1.3 percent in the gross domestic product last year.

"Per capita oil export earnings in constant dollars declined from around $23,820 in 1980 to just $2,563 in 2001 while over the past 20 years, the real growth rate of the Saudi economy has fallen well short of the rate of the population growth," the report said. "This has resulted in a sharp drop in per capita national income and a rise in unemployment."

Saudi Arabia has ordered a reshuffle of its military command as part of what has been described as widespread changes in the kingdom's armed forces.

King Fahd Bin Abdul Aziz appointed new commanders for the ground forces and navy. The appointments are to take effect on April 14. The military is under the control of Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz. The king, who has been largely incapacitated over the last two years, is the supreme commander of the military.

The official Saudi Press Agency said on March 21 that Fahd appointed Rear Admiral Fahd Bin Abdullah as commander of the Saudi navy. He replaces Vice Admiral Talal Ibn Salim Al Mufadhy, who will retire. Maj. Gen. Hussein Al Qubeel was named chief of the ground forces. Al Qubeel, who was promoted to the rank of lieutenant general, replaces Gen. Sultan Ibn Adi Al Motairy.

Al Motairy was promoted to the post of deputy chief of staff. The chief of staff remains Gen. Salih Ibn Ali Al Muhaya.

The appointments did not include the National Guard. The guard is controlled by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, a key rival of Sultan for the throne.

The Saudi-owned A-Sharq Al Awsat daily reported on March 22 that the new appointments are part of what it termed "widespread changes" in the military. The London-based newspaper said the changes were ordered by Sultan.

In an unrelated development, the Council of Ministers issued a ban on senior officials from marrying foreigners without permission of the king. The ban includes officials from the Defense Ministry, National Guard and the security and intelligence services. The new measure warns that any official will be dismissed should he marry a foreigner without permission.

The CIA has completed a classified report that warns of instablity in Saudi Arabia.

U.S. government sources said the report is the first in about five years and reflects the state of the kingdom in the wake of the Sept. 11 suicide attacks on New York and Washington. The sources said the Bush administration has distributed the report to the State Department and other agencies, including Congress. The report is not intended for public release.

The 25-page National Intelligence Estimate by the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence does not break new ground on the Saudis, the sources said. But they said the report reviews the internal and external threats against the kingdom as well as the future of Riyad's ties with Washington.

A key concern raised in the report is the issue of Saudi succession. The sources quoted the report as saying that the regime does not appear to have resolved who will replace the ailing King Fahd. The senior members of the royal family range from ages 75 to 80.

The succession struggle centers on Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz and his half-brother Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan. Abdullah has taken over the daily duties of the crown prince and regards Sultan as excessively pro-American and corrupt. Abdullah is said to be pressing for the succession of Riyad governor Prince Salman Bin Abdul Aziz, about 15 years younger than the 75-year-old Sultan and with a wide domestic power base.

Another concern raised by the report is the influence of the clergy on the Saudi regime. The report regards the clergy as the main pillar of legitimacy for the regime, the result of which has been the isolation of the royal family from an increasingly modern Saudi middle class.

"The House of Saud is depicted as `the boy in the bubble,''' a U.S. intelligence source quoted by the Boston Globe said. "What that means is the kingdom is too isolated and too coddled. It has become an entity that requires insulation from the biogens in its environment because if it were exposed to them it would become deathly ill."

The Saudi middle class has been hard hit by the huge Saudi budget deficits that stem from low oil prices. The new class of merchants have also privately complained of endemic corruption by the 30,000-member royal family, headed by 3,000 princes.

Forget the pronouncements on an Arab peace plan with Israel at the Arab summit this week in Beirut. This is the Saudi gesture toward the Bush administration to justify continued U.S. support for the kingdom that has sponsored Al Qaida.

Arab diplomatic sources said the real issue for the summit is the extent of Arab aid to sustain the Palestinian war against the Jewish state. And a driving force behind the unofficial agenda is Iran and the Hizbullah.

For Arab leaders meeting under unprecedented security in Beirut, the choices are clear cut: they can either reach out to Israel with a feasible peace plan, or they can take up a kitty to send hundreds of millions of dollars to escalate the Palestinian war against the Jewish state.

The diplomatic sources doubt the first prospect. What is more likely is that Iraq, Libya and Syria will pressure other Arab League members to increase funding to continue the Palestinian war. They said the Arab agenda drafted by Iran and its Lebanese-based Hizbullah ally is to maintain attacks on Israel until Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's government falls. At that point, the Palestinians will declare an independent state without making any concessions to Israel.

Hizbullah will not be represented at the summit. But the movement has clearly set the tone for the discussions. Hizbullah was the first to oppose the hesitant Saudi normalization idea, a move that led to opposition from a range of other Arab states, including Egypt. The result is that Riyad has pledged not to submit the proposal for discussion unless all the Arabs grant prior approval.

How much money could the Palestinians get? The sources said some countries, including Saudi Arabia, are considering proposing an Arab League pledge to grant another $1 billion to the Palestinians.

The message to Arab leaders is that they don't have to directly help the Palestinians. What is required is that such countries as Egypt and Jordan should not stop military help to the Palestinians. So, Jordan is being pressed to release Hizbullah detainees captured trying to smuggle Katyusha rockets to the West Bank. Egypt is being urged to allow suicide bombers to enter the Gaza Strip from the Sinai Peninsula.

[BEIRUT, Associated Press - 28 March]: Hamas, one of the militant groups at the vanguard of the Palestinian uprising, on Thursday rejected the Arab peace initiative to Israel and vowed to continue "all kinds of resistance."

"The summit resolutions are below the aspirations and the sacrifices of the Palestinian people. The resolutions ignored a lot of the Palestinian people's demands," Osama Hamdan, Hamas' representative in Lebanon, told The Associated Press.

The Arab League's overture, made at the end of a two-day summit in Beirut, offered Israel peace, recognition and "normal relations" in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from war-conquered Arab lands, creation of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and a "just solution" for Palestinian refugees."

The envisioned refugee "solution" is based on a 1948 U.N. resolution that says Palestinians should be allowed to return to their homes or compensated for their losses.

In Gaza City, Hamas spokesman Abdel Aziz Rantisi said the Arab League summit did not change anything for his group, which is dedicated to Israel's destruction. "As long as there is occupation, there will be a resistance. So we say it clearly: Occupation should be stopped and then there will be something else," Rantisi said.

The suicide bomber who killed 20 people and wounded more than 130 others at a Passover dinner in the Israeli resort town of Netanya on Wednesday was a Hamas member.

But Rantisi denied the bombing was timed to coincide with the Arab summit, which convened about seven hours before the bombing. There was "no relation at all between that operation and the summit," Rantisi said. "The relation is directly with the occupation."

The Palestinian Authority said it "strongly condemned" the Netanya attack. Arafat ordered the arrests of key members of Hamas and two other militant groups, Islamic Jihad and Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, a militia linked to Arafat's own Fatah movement.

In Beirut, Hamdan said that, instead of offering Israel peace, the Arab summit "should have cut all kinds of relations and contacts with the Zionist entity."

"We want a clear commitment to the right of return to the Palestinian refugees," Hamdan said. "The Palestinians want clear resolutions in support of the resistance and the intefadeh (uprising). The Palestinian people want an Arab boycott in the face of Israeli aggression and terrorism against them."

Three of the Arab League's 22 members - Egypt, Jordan and Mauritania - already have full diplomatic relations with Israel. Three others - Arafat's Palestinian Authority, Qatar and Oman - have formal ties at lower levels.

"I believe that the resistance and the intefadeh will continue in all forms," Hamdan said. Asked if "all forms" includes suicide bombings, he replied: "The type of operation is left for Hamas' military wing to decide."

Mid-East Realities

www.middleeast.org

Source: http://www.middleeast.org/articles/2002/3/731.htm