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Neo-cons, Part II
By Youssef M. Ibrahim*
Gulf News - 6 August
2004: For
three years the world fumed over the chauvinism, arrogance and policies
of Republican neo-conservatives (neo-cons as they are known) riding
over George W. Bush's administration. They advocated regime changes and
wars-of-choice. They dumped the western alliance, forged even stronger
bonds with Israel, dropping the Palestinians altogether, and occupied
Iraq.
But for those millions, who aspire to better days under a
Democratic administration led by Senator John Kerry, think again. The
Democratic Party's neo-con vampires are a lot worse than the current
ones - the second movie could be more frightening than the first.
One
of the Democratic Party neo-con intellectual gurus, Leslie Gelb,
president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations has proposed in
a New York Times Opinion-Editorial a few months ago the partition of
Iraq, stirring quite a fuss, but no real objection by anyone of weight
inside the Kerry camp.
Gelb's answer to how American troops get
out of Iraq is to split it into three states: Shiites in the South,
Kurdish in the North and one Sunni state in the middle. Then American
troops can leave a new mess, and say bye-bye.
Another major guru
of the Democratic neo-cons, Peter W. Galbraith, wrote a huge analysis
in the New York Review of Books on May 13 (volume 51-number 8) in which
he argued this model would "solve" many of the contradictions of modern
Iraq.
"The Shiites could have their Islamic republic, while the
Kurds could continue their secular traditions. Alcohol would continue
to be a staple of Kurdish picnics while it would be strictly banned in
Basra... The three-state solution would permit the United States to
disengage from security duties in most of Iraq," Galbraith asserted. Of
course, America would keep some American military bases - just in case.
Never
mind that such a solution would result in shifting out major segments
of populations, like the two million Shiites living in Baghdad's Sadr
city district, as well as hundred of thousands of Sunnis Arabs from
Kurdistan and from the South. Far worse, it is a guaranteed formula for
a bloody civil war, the destabilisation of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait next
door and the entry of Iran into this mess.
The rest of the
democratic neo-cons world vision is even more frightening. For the
Greater Middle East, their view is to appoint Israel in effect the
American pro-consul for the Arab world by supplying it with more
military and financial aid while diminishing such aid to Egypt and
other Arab countries.
This would permit Israel to complete its
ongoing takeover of the West Bank of Jordan and squeezing most
Palestinians into a tiny pseudo state in Gaza whose land, sea and sky
borders would be under Israeli control - a cage in which the
Palestinians can rot. They will not be able to fly, sail or drive in or
out of it without Israeli permission. Nor will they have open borders
with Egypt or Jordan.
The other chief target in the Democratic
neo-cons crosshair is Iran. The American Israel Public Affairs
Committee, AIPAC, the most powerful pro-Israel lobby in America, has
made it clear to both Republicans and Democrats that Iran must be
contained again because after the demise of Iraq it remains the only
danger to Israel.
Among other things, AIPAC has asked that Iran
be stripped of nuclear research facilities and that sanctions be
imposed on Russia if it continues to help Iran in this area.
In
fact, the Greater Middle East strategy of Democratic neo-cons is the
same as the existing ones: what is good for Israel is good for America.
It goes without saying that establishing diplomatic relations with
Israel by all Arab countries will become a must for maintaining
friendly relations with America.
The next target is the "reform"
of Muslim countries and Muslim doctrines. The "war against terror" will
become the war against Islam in various forms, targeting school
programmes, religious education, public institutions, economic reforms,
all under the guise of human rights, free economy and democracy.
There
is nothing wrong with more democracy - God knows this region can use it
- as long as it is not a Trojan horse for more control by the west and
Israel.
Finally, Europe, both new and old, must be neutralised
in the sense of understanding it cannot and will not have any influence
that is separate or different from America's. This of course will
include new pressures to bring an increasingly independent Russia back
into line.
In the view of Democratic neo-cons, Vladimir Putin
the Russian president, is far too independent for their taste. Russia
cannot be allowed to rise again as an industrial, strategic or even oil
power.
Russian oligarchs, many of whom happen to be strong
supporters of Israel, have already been cultivated and "prepped", as
they say, to use both their money and influence in support of the
taming of Putin, or, his removal in favour of a more pliant Russian
leader. Economic sanctions and such threats should, the Democratic
neo-cons believe, be invoked too if necessary.
So if you are
upset about the current movie "Republican Vampires" watch out for part
two, "Democratic Vampires". Things could get scarier.
* Youssef M.
Ibrahim , a former Middle East correspondent for the New York Times and
Energy Editor of the Wall Street Journal, is Managing Director of the
Dubai-based Strategic Energy Investment Group, a consulting firm
specialising in assessing political risk in the Gulf, Middle and Near
East region.
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