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MARCH TO WAR CONTINUES: ISRAEL WARNS IRAN AGAIN

June 14, 2001

"I say to the Israelis -- let there be no mistake about it -- we will attack them from everywhere, from every direction." Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah Tehran Conference, April 2001
MID-EAST REALITIES © - www.MiddleEast.Org - Washington - 6/14: There are major historical and military reasons why Ehud Barak and Bill Clinton (representing of course huge constituencies who at the time pushed them to pursue the policies they did) pressed Yasser Arafat so hard to sign an agreement at Camp David. It was all designed to force some kind of deal with Yasser Arafat while he is still in charge and to try to defuse the more ominous alternative future if the "peace process" with the Palestinians doesn't continue. And in a sense this is really the only major card Arafat still holds -- future regional warfare -- and it is a mighty card indeed though he may never live to actually play it.
The Israelis are well aware that they are now probably at the zenith of their power. They are well aware of the continuing Islamic resurgence; well aware that as weak as backward as infiltrated as the Arab world is, many of the "client regimes" are shaking. They are also well aware that in the end Israel is a small and thus vulnerable country; all the more so in the age of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, some of which can be delivered by the same "suicide bombers" who today use strapped-on explosives.
Earlier this year there was a major gathering in Tehran of those who not only oppose the treacherously deceptive "peace process" but the whole Jewish State concept, especially now that it has evolved into an apartheid-like structure far more overtly racist than in the past.
By striking Osirak in 1981 and then helping instigate the Gulf War a decade later the Israelis seem to have concluded they bought themselves much more time to dominate the divided and prostrate region and to consolidate their hold over what once was Palestine, especially the formally occupied areas still being absorbed. The Osirak attack came at a time when Saddam Hussein was America's new strongman allie in the region; and the Gulf War shortly after Saddam promised to reign bombs on Israel should Iraq ever be attacked again. Now, in Iran last month, there was what may well have been the largest gathering of forces opposed to Israel, with some 37 countries represented, and the following blast from Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah no doubt resonates as it was meant to: "Our Palestinian brothers will not be left alone to fend for themselves. I say to the Israelis -- let there be no mistake about it -- we will attack them from everywhere, from every direction."
You can bet the Israeli Generals are well aware of what was said and planned at the Tehran meeting, as well as the various veiled warnings coming from Cairo and Riyadh, however muted, however much these "client regimes" still remain in the end under American control.
Let there be no mistake about it indeed. The Israelis may well have concluded that without a strategic agreement with the Palestinians recognized by much of the world -- and that is why the failure to cajole and impose such an agreement at Camp David last year is so significant -- it is better to bring the Palestinians into submission and at the same time if possible take out the weapons of mass destruction in surrounding Arab countries now, than to wait anxiously for a future conflict when Israel's military and political advantages may not be as great as they are at the moment.
One more factor as well, and it's what is going on in Europe at the moment with George W. declaring to the world that the previous strategic arms treaties are "relics of the Cold War" and the U.S. will build "star wars" one way or another. Indeed, there are powerful Israeli-oriented personalities and forces in today's Washington at the highest levels pushing hard for building "star wars" (though of course they have changed the terminology which backfired on them in the past). The Israeli military and defense industries are intimately involved. The Israelis may well have concluded that if they can knock out Arab military power now -- and thus they may even be trying to provoke a short but intense regional conflict --by the time the Arabs are able to rebuild there will be new laser and missile defenses able to protect the Jewish State.
It's a terribly dangerous strategy, and it may well be leading down the road to another holocaust of sorts; especially as the hatreds and desires for revenge continue to escalate. But indeed, that's why General Barak was so determined, and so desperate really, to find some way to reach some kind of historic deal with Yasser Arafat, then to consolidate more political and economic arrangements with the key Arab states in the region, and in this way to head off the alternative choices and alternative futures that now await. Barak, and thus Clinton, lost their historic gambit both because what was offered was not a "Palestinian State" but too transparently Israeli apartheid, and because the Arafat Regime they had counted on didn't have the strength and credibility among its own people to historically enslave them further then they already are.

Now we all are marching into the abyss, as the following three insightful articles help explain:

WAR IN MIDEAST BY OCTOBER, REPORT SAYS

An intelligence firm has said Israel could be facing a full-scale regional war by October, and that top Israeli commanders are becoming frustrated by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's hesitation to destroy the Palestinian Authority's infrastructure.

Texas-based Stratfor.com, a global economic and military intelligence analyst firm, said in a report Thursday that Israeli military leaders were "disillusioned" with Sharon, and believes he may have lost his nerve.

"Sharon had pledged over and over that he would order an attack that would destroy the Palestinian Authority and exile Chairman Yasser Arafat from the region," the analytical report said.

"That opportunity came over the weekend when a Palestinian suicide bomber sent by the Islamic Hamas group blew himself up and killed another 20 Israelis," said Stratfor.

However, the next day, June 2, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz presented to Sharon a plan for a massive bombing sweep that would destroy the PA infrastructure and lead to the exile of Arafat.

"But Sharon, under massive pressure from the United States and the European Union, said no. Arafat had pledged a cease-fire, and Sharon did not want to be seen as the one who ruined the opportunity to end the 8-month-old war against the Palestinians," Stratfor.com said.

According to the report, the result of that has been some "deep soul-searching" within the upper echelons of the Israel Defense Force. Top commanders, the report said, believe Sharon is following exactly the same path as his predecessor, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, whom Sharon defeated soundly in February.

"Barak was held back from ending the war against the Palestinians by the refusal of then-President Bill Clinton to support a drive to exile Arafat. Barak felt that without U.S. support, Israel would be alone against the world," the report said.

Now, because of the civilian leadership's lack of will, IDF commanders believe Arafat, over the next several months, will continue to wage his campaign of Palestinian terror against Israel, but will "keep it below Sharon's level of tolerance."

Meanwhile, his allies in the region Iran, Iraq, and the Hizbollah terrorist organization "will rearm for a regional war against Israel," the report said.

"As the military brass sees it, Iran, Iraq, the Palestinians and Hizbollah want a regional war. Syria and Egypt are preparing for such a development. The brass is divided over whether Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will join such a coalition when the time comes," analysts said, in the report.

"In every meeting with U.S. officials, Mubarak has pledged he will stop such a war. But in public, the Egyptian president has been talking very tough," said the report.

The "time frame" for such a war is "between October and the end of this year," analysts said, according to the report. [7am.com and Stratfor Intelligence - 8 June 2001]

THINK TANK: RISING OIL PRICES POSE THREAT TO ISRAEL'S STRATEGIC EDGE

[MIDDLE EAST NEWSLINE - Tel Aiv - Thursday, June 7, 2001] The continued rise in the price of oil could undermine Israel's strategic edge over its enemies in the Middle East, leading strategists said.

The Israeli strategists said the increase over the last year of oil has filled the coffers of key Arab states as well as Iran. They said that should oil prices remain at their current level for the next two or three years, then Israel could face an array of advanced Russian and Western weaponry from such countries as Iran, Egypt and Syria.

"This is worrisome," said Shai Feldman, director of Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. "It could affect the military balance, particularly in Iran."

Iran is said to be in the advanced stages of negotiations for Russian systems, including the S-300V, regarded as one of the best anti-aircraft systems in the world with the capability of missile defense. Egypt and Syria are also interested in such a system, with a range of up to 300 kilometers, and have discussed such a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Feldman and his colleagues were speaking on Monday during the release of the center's latest publication, "The Middle East Military Balance 2000-2001. The strategists said Israel currently enjoys clear military superiority against any Arab state or Iran and could defeat virtually any Arab coalition.

This superiority, Feldman said, has prevented a regional war despite the eight-month-old conflict with the Palestinians.

"The Palestinian violence is a top level strategic challenge to Israel but it does not reduce Israel's overall strength," Feldman said. "The strategic balance remains tipped in Israel's favor and the capability for deterrence acts as a buffer against decline in the region."

ISRAEL CHARGES IRAN WITH SUPPORTING PALESTINIAN WAR EFFORT

[MIDDLE EAST NEWSLINE - Jerusalem - Saturday, June 9, 2001] Israel has for the first time issued a detailed account of Iranian support to the Palestinians in their war against the Jewish state.

Israeli officials said Teheran sends weapons to Syria. From there, they are relayed to Lebanon and received by the Hizbullah and the Islamic Jihad.

The Iranian weapons are then smuggled to the West Bank and Gaza Strip through neighboring countries such as Jordan and Egypt. The officials said Egypt has done little to stop the smuggling, although Jordan has taken preventive measures.

Officials said several squads of Palestinian attackers have already infiltrated Israel and are preparing attacks on Israeli civilian targets. The result has been a high alert by Israeli security forces.

Israel has raised the weapons issue with Egypt, the officials said. Cairo has not acknowledged that the Palestinians are smuggling the weapons through the Sinai peninsula and over the border into the Gaza city of Rafah.

"We can't say Egypt is actively helping the Palestinians smuggle weapons," a senior Israeli military official said. "What we can say is that Egypt has done very little."

The United States has also raised the assertions of Palestinian weapons smuggling through Egypt with President Hosni Mubarak. A key issue concerns Israeli charges that the Egyptian border at Rafah is virtually open for Palestinians, leaving Israeli soldiers to try to stop infiltration and smuggling under fire from snipers in Rafah.

The Israeli assertion was issued during Israel's current ceasefire with the Palestinians. Officials said the ceasefire would continue until the launching of a major Palestinian attack on Israeli civilians.

But Science Minister Matan Vilnai said Cabinet ministers would not automatically approve any military response to a Palestinian attack. Vilnai said the key would be whether the proposed Israeli target is deemed as connected to the Palestinian attackers.

On early Friday, Palestinian gunners fired mortars toward Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip

June 2001

Magazine

TURKEY HEADING TOWARD "SOCIAL EXPLOSION"...i.e., "REVOLUTION"
(June 30, 2001)
In geostrategic and military terms, the unnamed U.S.-Israel-Turkish military alliance that emerged full-blown during the last decade -- of course with the Turks using the "peace process" as the excuse for such close relations between Turkey and Israel -- was one of the most important developments.

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTIONS EMERGING
(June 29, 2001)
In a sense there is an arms race under way at this time of a different kind -- a race for whether weapons of mass destruction will be used in a serious and ongoing way should a new war break out first in the Subcontinent over Kashmir or in the Middle East over Palestine.

LABOR AND LIKUD MORE ALIKE THAN DIFFERENT - MER FLASHBACK
(June 29, 2001)
Long before what was to happen with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak (remember him?), MER was informing who he really was and what to really expect. Same with regard to Shimon Peres. Expect the same cutting-edge information and analysis in the months ahead.

Washington Scene: THE HISTORICAL MOMENT
(June 27, 2001)
The Middle East region totters now between further repression and oppression, terrorism and war. The outcome in the short term is indeterminate of course. But the winds and directions are clear; however much camaflouged by the politicians and the usually gullible mass media.

THREATCON DELTA ORDERED TODAY
(June 22, 2001)
One day they will probably get Osama bin-Laden, former confident of King Fahd in Saudi Arabia, former CIA asset against the once mighty Soviet Empire, now arch nemesis of the American Empire.

"ALGERIA IS IN CRISIS"
(June 22, 2001)
"The Battle of Algiers" left North Africa biggest country terribly bloodied and traumatized. This time it was French imperialism and the French military that did the dirty horrifying deeds.

EGYPT ARMING WHILE REGIME IS SHAKING
(June 21, 2001)
Arab States, including Egypt, are arming at a growing pace. Even combined they are still no match to defeat Israel. But their detterence capabilities are growing, they might be able to seriously bloody Israel in years ahead...

ARAFAT'S FLUNKIES
(June 20, 2001)
There are many reasons the Palestinian people are suffering so terribly, worse by the year in fact, and are now endangered by the possibility of a second "nakba" (disaster).

"THE SECOND HALF OF 1948"
(June 20, 2001)
Official declarations and many reports in the Israeli media indicate that the Israeli military and political leadership are aiming, eventually, at a total destruction of the Palestinian authority, and, with it, the process of Oslo, which is now dominantly considered by them a 'historical mistake'.

TELEGRAPHING WHAT I S TO COME
(June 19, 2001)
Arafat had two roles he had been assigned. That's why none other than former "terrorist" Arafat was the most frequent visitor to the White House during the years 1993 through 2000.

SHARON'S LONG MARCH: NEXT TO WASHINGTON THEN TO THE ATTACK
(June 19, 2001)
Ariel Sharon is proving what others before him, including Generals Patton and MacArthur of American legend, learned about modern warfare. There's a heavy messure of political theatrics and personal legend involved in making war, more so now than ever in this age of instant TV and the Intenet.

SHARON Coming To US Again To Coordinate War Plans
(June 19, 2001)
Sharon is coming to the States again next week. Only a firm "absolutely not" from the Americans is likely now to prevent much further brutal subjugation of the Palestinians; quite possibly the exiling again of Yasser Arafat.

SON OF IMPORTANT ISRAELI FAMILY REFUSES OCCUPATION MILITARY SERVICE
(June 17, 2001)
Coordinated non-violent but serious civil disobedience -- there in the Middle East, in Europe, and in the United States -- that is what today's situation desperately calls out for.

ARIEL SHARON - WAR CRIMINAL?
(June 15, 2001)
Years ago the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kurt Waldheim, was brought before a mock international court through a joint effort of Home Box Office (HBO) in the USA and a major British TV network. The question before the court was whether Kurt Waldheim was possibly guilty of war crimes ...

PREPARING FOR DESTRUCTION
(June 15, 2001)
"If a cease-fire does indeed take hold, then all the better... If Arafat rejects the document or professes to accept it, but does not fulfill his part of the bargain, Israel will win more points in the court of world opinion and a more conducive political backdrop will be created for a military response to Palestinian violence."

ALGERIANS FIRE INTO DEMONSTRATING CROWDS TODAY
(June 14, 2001)
The Berbers in Algeria, the brutal civil war in Sudan, the Palestinians in the once Holy Land, the Kurds in Iraq and Turkey, the ongoing Kashmir crisis -- all conflicts exploding throughout the greater Middle East region today in 2001, all conflicts the legacy of Western colonial policies of yesteryear and American imperial policies of today.

MARCH TO WAR CONTINUES: ISRAEL WARNS IRAN AGAIN
(June 14, 2001)
There are major historical and military reasons why Ehud Barak and Bill Clinton (representing of course huge constituencies who at the time pushed them to pursue the policies they did) pressed Yasser Arafat so hard to sign an agreement at Camp David.

THE SO-CALLED "AGREEMENT"
(June 13, 2001)
There is no real "agreement". There is a dictate. Yasser Arafat is in no position anymore to do much other than what his American handlers tell him to do; a day of reckoning he brought on himself by so many mistakes and so much corruption over such a long time.

Another Muslim Rep Foolishly Plays To The Cameras On Behalf of the Regimes
(June 13, 2001)
A week ago outside the State Department one of the latest Muslim organization reps to grab for the cameras -- Khalid Turaani -- declared in loud tones how the time had finally come for "civil disobedience" and how he and the other leaders of the assembled Muslim "client organizations" were going to get arrested in a peaceful protest ...

HASHEMITE KINGDOM CLOSES BORDERS TO PALESTINIANS
(June 13, 2001)
The Hashemite Regime has always, right from the start, been in deep collusion with the Israelis and since World War II with the CIA. This latest step to close off Jordan to Palestinians -- to essentially put a seal on the jar which now contains the Palestinians ...

CIA TELLS ARAFAT WHAT HE HAS TO DO AND WHAT IT WILL DO FOR HIM
(June 12, 2001)
When the Director of the CIA is himself involved so extensively, goes on site half way around the world for a lengthy stay, and the situation is so critical he has to publicly acknowledge his role ...

CLOVIS MAKSOUD DID IT TWENTY YEARS AGO, APPEARING WITH SHIMON PERES
(June 11, 2001)
Those who know Raghida Dergham know what she is, and its certainly not a truly independent journalist. She's been an opportunist for a very long time, and she's used her sexuality to climb the ladder with backing from one influential Arab diplomat or royal along the way for a long time now.

CALAMITY AHEAD
(June 10, 2001)
"A whole nation is now huddled around one tribal bonfire to lament its bitter fate, mourn its dead and ignore the dead of the other side. As usual, it views itself as the victim, turns the enemy into Satan and waits, inactive and bravely unthinking, for the calamity that is about to befall it and for which it is in no small measure to blame."

WAR POSSIBLE WARNS TOP SAUDI
(June 10, 2001)
Normally one of the last places one would turn for truthfulness, integrity, and information would be the Saudi royal family. Currently headed by a former playboy who drank, gambled, and womanized his life away in Beirut and London -- before assuming the throne -- it is the Saudi "royal family which epitomizes the "client regime" realities that have so fractured, weakened, and prostrated the whole region once known as "the Arab world."

CHRISTIAN LEADERS: WRONG TIME, WRONG ADVICE, WRONG REASONS
(June 8, 2001)
"Be assured of our prayers for you and the President and all others in the Administration as you seek to forge a fair and just policy for the two peoples and three faiths who share a common religious heritage in the land we hold as holy."

THE CRUEL REGIMES OF ARABDOM
(June 7, 2001)
There are huge cultural gulfs between East and West, old world and new world. And of course the West is extraordinarily dominant these days not only it terms of financial and military might, but also in terms of cultural influence and "moral" standards.

SHARON'S RISE
(June 7, 2001)
"In reality the Zionist and Hashemite leaderships continue to plot how to control and repress the Palestinians in ever more crafty and ever more duplicitous ways."

ARAFAT 4 YEARS AGO - MER FLASHBACK
(June 6, 2001)
Last year MER first carried information about the increasingly close CIA, Shinbet, and Mossad connections with Yasser Arafat's "Palestinian Authority".

MUSLIM ORGS EMBARRASS THEMSELVES AT STATE DEPT
(June 5, 2001)
With much press fanfare (they just love to play to the cameras) leaders of half a dozen Muslim American groups held a press conference gathering across from the State Department today.

DESPITE THE LULL, WAR CLOUDS LOOM
(June 4, 2001)
Despite the lull, there are many ominous signs of impending major attacks against the occupied Palestinians about to take place; and there is a real possibility of regional war.

EGYPTIANS THREATEN WAR!
(June 4, 2001)
When the American Secretary of State cancels long-planned foreign travel and publicly warns of the "abyss" from which "there may no return" you can bet the situation behind-the-scenes is far more dangerous and explosive than is publicly realized.

SHARON'S HAWKS PLAN FOR WAR
(June 3, 2001)
Peter Beaumont, foreign affairs editor, reports on Israel's growing mood for full-scale hostilities in the aftermath of 17 deaths in a nightclub suicide bomb attack

24-HOURS AND COUNTING
(June 2, 2001)
"Americans should not travel to Gaza at the present time and those who live there should depart to a safer location when they can do so." U.S. Embassy, Israel

HATED RAJOUB GETS READY
(June 2, 2001)
With the days of Yasser Arafat maybe coming to an end one way or another, with Feisal Husseini passed from the scene, with the other Palestinian tough guys bottled up in Gaza, the frontrunner strong man to "control" the Palestinian people throughout the West Bank and Jerusalem appears to be Jibril Rajoub.

ARAFAT'S LEGACY
(June 2, 2001)
Yasser Arafat was hired, courted, and well-paid to control his own people and lead them, however much they tried to resist, to the Apartheid-style arrangement the Israelis always had in mind with the so-called "Oslo Peace Process".

ISRAELIS PLANNING BLITZKRIEG?
(June 1, 2001)
For a long time now we have been desperately warning about what the true Israeli intentions are. We have also been warning that the Palestinians are not at all prepared for these eventualities, neither with the terrible leadership provided by the "Palestinian Authority" nor for the world-wide information and public relations battle that accompanies all major developments in our world these days.