The following is from MER four years ago, in April 1997. Following that two Reuters articles today which just hint at what may be to come:

"MOST POWERFUL MILITARY FRIENDSHIP IN THE MIDDLE EAST"

[MER - 4/28/1997: While the misnomered "peace process" continues to dominate the news, arms continue to flood into the Middle East region and possible war preparations are underway. The Israeli military, with ever-increasing U.S. help, has actually increased its military budget since the "peace process" began. And the Americans have recently agreed to provide additional hundreds of millions of dollars for anti-missile defenses, "anti-terrorism", and the prepositioning of military stockpiles in the U.S. for immediate war-time transfer to Israel. One of the most important regional military and political developments in the past few years is the still-growing Israeli-Turkish/U.S. military alliance. The Israelis are further badgering and challenging the weak Arab regimes, now with Turkey added to their arsenal. And the Turkish military is strengthening itself should it circumvent Turkish "democracy" with a military government to prevent the Islamic movement from gaining any further power and should civil war result, as has been the case in Algeria. Both the U.S. and Israel have been courting Turkish military leaders urging them to severely pressure the Turkish government away from its new "Islamic" orientation, and if not successful to instigate a coup.

"OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, TURKEY AND ISRAEL HAVE QUIETLY FORGED A REMARKABLE PROGRAM OF MILITARY COOPERATION. IN THE PROCESS, THEY HAVE CREATED WHAT IS NOW THE MOST POWERFUL MILITARY FRIENDSHIP IN THE MIDDLE EAST... THE RELATIONSHIP CAN ONLY MAKE ISRAELI LEADERS MORE CONFIDENT THAT THEY CAN TAKE TOUGH POSITIONS IN DEALING WITH THEIR ARAB NEIGHBORS. AN ALLIANCE WITH TURKEY COULD GO A LONG WAY TOWARD NEUTRALIZING SYRIA IN ANY MAJOR CRISIS. IT COULD ALSO MAKE SYRIA THINK TWICE ABOUT STIRRING UP TROUBLE TO ISRAEL'S NORTH, HOWEVER PREOCCUPIED ISRAEL MAY BE WITH QUELLING UNREST AMONG THE PALESTINIANS." Stephen Nizer, Correspondent New York Times, 4/13/97

TURKEY ECONOMY SHRINKS, GENERALS REPORTED WORRIED

By Steve Bryant

ISTANBUL, 30 June 2001 (Reuters) - Turkey reported on Saturday a 4.2 percent drop in gross national product (GNP) in the first three months of 2001 from a year earlier, as the effects of two major financial crises bit into the economy.

The evidence of a sharp slowdown in the NATO-member's economy came as newspapers reported Turkey's powerful generals were concerned that the economic crisis could spark social upheaval and demonstrations.

The figures were published on the State Statistics Institute's website and compare with 4.2 percent GNP growth in the first quarter of 2000.

Turkey's economy was rocked by successive crises in November and late February. The second forced a flotation of the lira currency that destroyed an IMF-backed disinflation plan.

Since then thousands have been laid off work as businesses closed and Turks struggled to deal with a more than 40 percent depreciation of the lira against the dollar.

Inflation has also rocketed to 52.4 percent annually for consumer prices in May. Turkey is almost entirely dependent on imports of fuel and Turks have seen huge rises in petrol and heating costs, as well as hikes in value added tax and other taxes designed to raise government revenue.

Newspapers on Saturday said a meeting of the influential National Security Council, Turkey's top security body where members of the military advise civilian on threats to the country, had discussed the danger of a "social explosion."

"A report said that measures taken after the economic crisis had placed many people on low incomes in great difficulty and expressed the worry that 'This could cause a social explosion'," the Hurriyet newspaper said.

Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit played down the reports, saying he could not discuss the proceedings of the council.

"But I can say this: there was no report that caused concern," Ecevit told reporters in Ankara.

Turkey's armed forces have directly intervened to overthrow civilian governments three times since 1960 and their advice carries great weight with civilian governments. Their last direct coup followed widespread social unrest in the late 1970s.

Other papers carried similar details of the report, debated at the closed-doors meeting of the council on Friday.

Under a new IMF loan deal that offers $15.7 billion this year in crisis lending, Turkey budgeted for a three percent contraction in GNP in the whole of 2001, hoping that the cheaper lira would allow export-fuelled growth to return in the second half of the year.

Many analysts predict a more severe contraction, pointing to a banking sector that was ravaged by the crises and is unable or unwilling to provide the credits to small businesses that are needed to feed a return to growth.

The security council report pointed to increases in theft and muggings and warned wider street protests were possible in the coming months.

"It was requested of the government to take rapid measures to improve the position of low income groups," Hurriyet said.

TURK HUNGER STRIKER DIES, TOLL UP TO 26

ISTANBUL, 30 June 2001 (Reuters) - A Turkish leftist hunger-striker died on Friday, bringing the death toll in a months-long "death fast" against prison reforms to 26, newspapers said on Saturday.

Newspapers said 22-year-old Zehra Kulaksiz had died after she had refused food for 221 days in a house in the city of Istanbul.

Hundreds of mostly leftist inmates and some family members are on hunger strike to protest a new penitentiary system which has introduced the use of small cells.

The hunger strikers have survived by taking water with salt and sugar and vitamins.

Turkey says the new jails meet European standards and break up the influence of political prisoners and mafia criminals over large dormitory-style wards.

The hunger strikers say the new cells isolate prisoners and make them vulnerable to police brutality.