ASSASSINATION AND COUNTER-ASSASSINATION IN PALESTINE

"Fears are growing in the international community that Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority (PA) is heading for collapse."

"European and Arab giving more money to the PA to keep it going, after the theft, corruption and repression of the past, is a stupid policy under all the circumstances."

The Israelis have problems, big problems; and electing a man many consider to be a war criminal to be their Prime Minister certainly exacerbates them.

There's a major problem providing water for the Jewish State. All-important tourist income is way down because of the second Palestinian Intifada.

The tensions between the secular left and the religious right are considerable and still growing. Weapons of mass destruction are no longer going to be an Israeli monopoly in the future.

But these are not problems of the magnitude faced by the Palestinians -- among them the looming possibility of civil war.

On the 13th of January the Arafat Regime -- after a very brief "military trial" that was quickly and widely condemned even by those who have strong ties with and provide support for the regime -- put two Palestinians in front of a firing squad for the first time since coming to power in 1994.

When video pictures which "The Authority" thought had all been confiscated were shown on TV the journalists were arrested. The word was out from the regime: "Don't dare to oppose us". Indirectly those thought to be plotting a possible coup against Arafat were being warned about their likely fate.

In subsequent days vigilante "justice" resulted in more summary executions, not necessarily PA approved. And on 15 January the Arafat Regime's Jerusalem Man, Feisal Husseini, held a press conference, supposedly to answer the European critics of what had been done, and especially of how it had been done. "They (the Israelis) are putting us in a military state and in an atmosphere of war," Husseini insisted. "There is only one body that is responsible for taking this critical decision and carrying it out. Only one body. Any attempt from an individual or group to do this will bring charges onto them," Hussein stressed, trying to hold back the emotional flood the PA itself had unleashed.

Two days later in a Gaza Hotel a close friend whom Arafat had personally appointed head of Palestinian TV, Hisham Mikki, was gunned down by masked men. The next day Arafat himself was a pallbearer helping carry Mikki's coffin. Since the killing, it has been learned that Mikki was widely despised as a man who had very little eight years ago when Arafat appointed him, but at the time of his death had at least $17 million in various bank accounts. The word was out from Arafat's opponents: "Don't dare go too far with the Israelis, and don't dare push us too far either."

A couple of days ago in Nablus masked Palestinians shot to death another "corrupt" official as the cycle of violence and killing within Palestinian society continues to escalate. Far more is going on than ever makes its way into newspaper reports; and people on the ground fear even more what they say and write and tell others.

Now, with Ariel Sharon about to come to the pinnacle of Israeli power, the tensions within Palestinian society, and the policies that can be expected from the Israelis (especially covert) to play on these tensions, can be expected to push the Palestinians still further toward the civil war they have so far managed to avert.

Meanwhile, the Arab "client regimes" and the Europeans continue to be used and manipulated by both the Arafat crowd and the Israelis (plus the Americans of course) to keep Arafat in the money and to keep the whole stinking and creaking Oslo structure from being washed away. European and Arab giving of more money to the Arafat "Authority" to keep it going, after the gross theft, corruption, and repression of the past, is actually a stupid policy under all the circumstances. But they do it for reasons outlined in this article in Sunday's The Independent:

ISRAELI SANCTIONS AND INTERNAL STRIKE ARE DESTROYING THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY -- AND WITH IT, HOPES FOR A PEACE DEAL
By Phil Reeves in Jerusalem

[The Independent - 28 January 2001]: Fears are growing in the international community that Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority (PA) is heading for collapse, which would destroy any possibility of continuing the search for a peace agreement with Israel and plunge the West Bank and Gaza into anarchy.

Four months of Israeli-imposed blockades and other punitive sanctions have sent the Palestinian economy into deep recession, undermining the position of the authority, particularly on the West Bank.

Last week the European Union pushed through new loans to the PA, which was unable to pay its employees, not least because Israel held up the transfer of tax receipts and customs duties to the Palestinians.

"We are close to a total collapse [of the PA] and the Israelis must know that this is against their interests," said a Western diplomat close to the Palestinian leadership. "A collapse means that Israel won't have a partner in the peace process and it will ruin the Israelis' chance for security."

Further international efforts to keep the authority from disintegrating by propping up its foundering economy seem likely. If the PA does collapse, much - though not all - of the blame will rest with Israel.

It has repeatedly imposed total closures, not only of the borders surrounding Palestinian areas but also of individual towns and cities. In the Gaza Strip, the worst-hit area, unemployment has rocketed from 11 per cent to 50 per cent since the start of the intifada. A third of the 1.2 million population locked into the 40km-long strip now live below the poverty line (less than $2-worth of consumption per head per day).

The Palestinians' plight has been worsened by the punishment imposed by the Israeli army. Its troops have destroyed hundreds of acres of olive trees, date palms and citrus groves, and regularly cuts the strip into three enclaves by closing off roads. Workers in the south cannot reach the north; goods delivered to Gaza City can't be distributed.

But the PA's crisis runs deeper than economics, and is partly self-inflicted. It has long been seen by Palestinians as rife with corruption. Ten days ago the head of Palestinian TV, Hisham Mekki, was assassinated in Gaza. His thieving was legendary, but Gazans were still stunned to discover from the Palestinian attorney-general that his assets amounted to $17m (£11m).

Such instances do not make life any easier for Mr Arafat, who has never been in full control of the radical forces behind the intifada. Militant groups such as Hamas - whose members Arafat had been throwing into jail before the intifada began - are resurgent, and have established ties with his own Fatah movement. "Not one of our members in Gaza is now in jail," Mahmoud Zahaar, a Hamas spokesman, told the Independent on Sunday in a recent interview in Gaza. "We are stronger now, because everything we said turned out to be true. We said the Oslo negotiations would not bring peace, but armed struggle, and that has proved right."

There was more evidence of Mr Arafat's incomplete grip last Tuesday when Palestinian guerrillas shot dead two Israeli restaurateurs on a shopping trip to the West Bank. The killings happened while the PA leaders were in negotiations with the Israelis in Taba, Egypt.

For once, the talks appeared to have been moving forward. But the killings prompted Ehud Barak, the Israeli prime minister, to suspend the talks for two days, angering Western diplomats working behind the scenes to secure a joint statement on peace before the Israeli election. The momentum may return, but the whole process is incredibly fragile. One bomb could bring it crashing down again.