<>"Cold War Shivers": War Preparations in the
Middle East and Central Asia
<>
<>
by
Michel Chossudovsky
8 October
2006: It is essential that people across America and around
the World take cognizance of the dangers of a Middle East war
directed against Iran and act decisively to challenge the US
military agenda and reverse the tide of war.
The World is at the
crossroads of the most serious crisis in modern history. The US
has embarked on a military adventure, "a long war", which threatens the
future of humanity.
This article
documents recent developments, focusing on military deployment
and preparations in the event of a US led war on Iran. This text
follows a number of earlier reports published by Global Research
pertaining to the War on Iran (See Iran
dossier, Nuclear
War dossier, Lebanon
dossier )
Background
The entire Middle East Central Asian region is on a war footing.
US-NATO naval deployment is taking place in
two distinct theaters: the Persian Gulf and the Eastern
Mediterranean. (See Mahdi
Darius Nazemroaya, October 2006).
The naval armada in the Persian Gulf is
largely under US command, with the participation of Canada. Both the
USS Enterprise and Eisenhower Strike groups have been dispatched to the
Persian Gulf in a a massive display of US military might.
USS Enterprise Strike Group
USS Eisenhower
The militarization of the Eastern
Mediterranean (on land and sea) is under the control of several NATO
member countries including France, Germany and Turkey. This
military build-up is conducted under the façade of a UN
peace-keeping mission (UNIFIL) pursuant to UN Security Council
Resolution 1701.
In this context, the war on Lebanon must be viewed as a stage of the
broader US sponsored military road-map, which targets Syria.
In September, Germany dispatched a fleet of eight ships including 2
frigates, with up to 2,400 personnel aboard. The German navy will be in
charge of the multinational naval force, which has, under
its official UNIFIL mandate "to prevent arms shipments to
Hezbollah". The German naval force will operate out of the Cyprus port
of Limassol, located within less than 100 km.
from the Lebanon-Syria coastline. The Cyprus based
multinational naval force could eventually be used to encroach on
maritime trade with Syria.
In early October, Turkey dispatched several
warships, which will join the multinational naval force under German
command. While Turkey is formally part of the UN international force
(UNIFIL), it is also a close military ally of Israel. Greek, Bulgarian
and Italian warships have also been dispatched to the Lebanese
coast.
France has dispatched armored vehicle and infantry units. (Chars
Leclerc see below).
The nature of the military equiipment and weapons systems being
deployed has little to do with "peace-keeping". Moreover,
NATO established a close military partnership with Israel in 2005,
which in practice binds NATO member countries involved in Lebanon
to fully cooperate with Israel.
.
German Brandenburg Class Frigate dispatched
to Lebanese Coast
French Armored Vehicles (Chars Leclerc) en
route to Lebanon. The Leclerc armored vehicles were used in Kosovo in
1999
The naval buildup has been coordinated with
the planned air attacks on Iran. The latter were outlined in mid-2004,
following the formulation of CONCEPT PLAN CONPLAN 8022 (early 2004).
The air attacks on Iran would involve a "shock and awe" blitzkrieg on a scale similar
to the 2003 air war on Iraq.
In November 2004, US Strategic Command
conducted a major exercise of a "global strike plan" entitled "Global
Lightening". The latter involved a simulated attack using both
conventional and nuclear weapons against a "fictitious enemy" [Iran].
Following the "Global Lightening" exercise, US Strategic Command
declared an advanced state of readiness.
CONPLAN is the operational plan pursuant to
the Global Strike Plan. It is described as "an actual plan that the
Navy and the Air Force translate into strike package for their
submarines and bombers,'
CONPLAN 8022 is 'the overall umbrella plan
for sort of the pre-planned strategic scenarios involving nuclear
weapons.'
'It's specifically focused on these new types
of threats -- Iran, North Korea -- proliferators and potentially
terrorists too,' he said. 'There's nothing that says that they can't
use CONPLAN 8022 in limited scenarios against Russian and Chinese
targets.' (According to Hans Kristensen, of the Nuclear
Information Project, quoted in Japanese economic News Wire, op
cit)
The use of tactical nuclear weapons is
contemplated under CONPLAN 8022 alongside conventional weapons,
as part of the Bush administration's preemptive war doctrine. In May
2004, National Security Presidential Directive NSPD 35 entitled Nuclear
Weapons Deployment Authorization was issued. While its contents
remains classified, the presumption is that NSPD 35 pertains to the
deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the Middle East war theater
in compliance with CONPLAN 8022.
Iran is in an advanced stage of readiness in
the eventuality of a US attack.
In response to the US-NATO sponsored military
build-up, Iran has conducted extensive war games throughout its
territory. (See Mahdi
Darius Nazemroaya, 21 August 2006)
Iran War Games, August 2006.
Iran's Shahab-3 ballistic missile
Moreover, barely acknowledged by the Western
media, both China and Russia have conducted war games in Central Asia,
in collaboration with their coalition partners. In late September,
Russia conducted air war exercises over a large part of its
territory, extending from the Volga to the frontiers of Alaska and
North America. These war games prompted the scrambling of NORAD fighter
planes.
Military exercises involving the
participation of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan under
the Collective Security Treaty Organization, (CSTO) were launched in
August. These war games, officially described as part of a " counter
terrorism program", were held barely a week before those conducted by
the Iranian military. (See Michel
Chossudovsky, 24 August 2006)
Broadly coinciding with both the Iranian and
CSTO military exercises, China and Kazakhstan also conducted military
exercises in August under the auspices of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO). Iran is an observer member in
the SCO. (For Timeline of War Games see Table below)
Members of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO). Observer States including Iran are indicated in
Green
In late September, China and Tajikistan held
a joint military exercise, code-named "Cooperation-2006", according to
a memorandum of understanding signed between the two governments.
Tajikistan has a 500 km. border with Afghanistan. These war games
directly address US-NATO military presence in neighboring
Afghanistan.
In early October, in the latest round of
Central Asian war games under CSTO auspices, joint Russian-Kyrgyz war
exercises were held (starting on October 2nd) at Russia's Kant airbase
located some 30 km. from the Kyrgyz capital. Officially described as an
"anti-terror drill", these high profile exercises involved the
deployment of Russian and Kyrgyz special forces units. Russia's top
brass and defense minister Sergei Ivanov were in attendance for the
launching of the event:
"About 350 servicemen from special forces
units, combat vehicles, artillery, Su-25 Frogfoot ground support
aircraft and Mi-8 Hip multipurpose helicopters are participating in the
active phase of the maneuvers, which include the firing of live
ammunition at the Osh practice range.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who
is currently on a visit to the Central Asian state, Kyrgyzstan Prime
Minister Felix Kulov and Defense Minister Ismail Isakov are attending
the exercises.
Russia and Kyrgyzstan are both members of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization, a post-Soviet security
grouping that also includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and
Tajikistan. They are also in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a
regional security body in Central Asia that includes China, Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan and Tajikistan." (Novosti 5
0ctober 2006)
Russian Su-25 Frogfoot ground support
aircraft in Russia-Kyrgyz war exercises
Meanwhile, in late September, Russia also
conducted military exercises in Dagestan, involving the 136th Brigade.
The exercise held at the Buynakskiy training ground involved an unnamed
"foreign State" which was attacking Russia. According to one
Russian press report: "Given the scale [of the simulated enemy
attack], this can be compared with WWII. The [unnamed] enemy is artful,
well armed and well trained."
Also in early October, Belarus and Russia
announced that they will be hold training sessions for the two
countries' command and control bodies, with a view to coordinating
their military activities. (Belarus TV, October 1, 2006)
Consistent Pattern
The overall significance of these military
drills must be assessed in relation to the sequence of Russian, Chinese
and Iran war exercises conducted since late August.
There is a consistent pattern. These war
games are not isolated events. They are part of a carefully coordinated
endeavor, in response to the US-NATO military build-up. They
should also be considered as acts
of deterrence, intended to display military
capabilities to deter military action by US led coaltion.
The issue of war preparation has been
carefully avoided by the Western media. The sequence and
interrelationship between these war games is not mentioned.
While the war exercises are casually
acknowledged in separate wire service reports, the Western media fails
to address the broader implications of these military
exercises.
Military Alliances
The SCO and CSTO war games must also be
examined in relation to the structure of military alliances. Both China
and Russia are allies of Iran, involved in extensive military
cooperation agreements.
China and Russia are major actors in Central
Asian oil. They have significant strategic and economic interests in
the Central Asian region and the Caspian sea basin. They also have
economic cooperation agreements with Iran's State oil company.
US Sponsored Military
Build-Up
The Cold War although officially over has not
quite reached its climax.
The US military agenda is not limited to
gaining control over Iran's oil and gas reserves, (using the "campaign
against international terrorism" as a pretext). Reminiscent of
the Cold war era, the objective of US military intervention also
consists in weakening and ultimately displacing China and Russia from
playing a significant role in Central Asia.
Most Western press reports have failed to
acknowledge the seriousness of the US-NATO- Israeli military
build-up. Underlying what is normally understood as a Middle East
war, the conflict could evolve towards a clash between former competing
super powers of the Cold War era.
Directed against Iran and Syria, the US
sponsored military operation, if it were to be launched, could result
in a broader conflict marked by the indirect involvement of Russia and
China and their central Asian allies. In fact that indirect
involvement is already established through Iran's observer status to
the SCO, various bilateral military cooperation agreements as well as
the sale of Chinese and Russian weapons systems to Iran.
The US is involved in covert operations
throughout Central Asia with a view to essentially displacing Russia.
The tensions in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are the direct result
of US geopolitical encroachments within what used to be within
Moscow's traditional sphere of influence. Georgia and
Azerbaijan have become de facto US protectorates.
In the recent showdown between Russia
and Georgia, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili "pledged to
continue Georgia's efforts to join NATO as well as secure the speedy
withdrawal of Russian forces from Georgian territory.
Moscow responded by putting Russian
forces inside Georgia on high alert, following the accusation by
Tbilisi that Russian military officers inside Georgia were involved in
spying. The withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia opens
the way for the stationing of NATO forces, which are already present in
neighbouring Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, in relation to the issue of NATO
enlargement, Moscow warned the Atlantic Alliance in early October that
it would take "appropriate measures" if Poland were to deploy "elements
of the missile defense systems of the United States or NATO on its
territory", (Interfax News Agency, 4 Oct 2006)
“We continue to treat these plans critically.
Our opinion is that [these plans] along with the possible deployment of
NATO’s European missile defense system can produce a negative effect on
strategic stability, security in the region and relations between the
states,” Kamynin said. “A new situation like this one will objectively
require us to take appropriate measures because we cannot rely in such
matters solely on statements that the missile defense systems of the
U.S. and NATO in Europe ’are not aimed’ against Russia,” the official
added."(Ibid)
Known and documented, China is also
supporting Iran in the development of its air defense system. Moreover,
according to a report
in the Daily Telegraph (5 October 2006),
Washington has acknowledged that China has been
involved in
"secretly fired powerful laser weapons
designed to disable American spy satellites by "blinding" their
sensitive surveillance devices, it was reported yesterday.
The hitherto unreported attacks have been
kept secret by the Bush administration for fear that it would damage
attempts to co-opt China in diplomatic offensives against North Korea
and Iran.
Sources told the military affairs publication
Defense News that there had been a fierce internal battle within
Washington over whether to make the attacks public. In the end, the
Pentagon's annual assessment of the growing Chinese military build-up
barely mentioned the threat. (Daily Telegraph, 5 October 2006)
"Cold War Shivers"
In addition to the various CSTO and SCO war
games carried out in Central Asia in the course of the last two months,
Russia's air force also conducted a major military exercise in late
September, which extended over a large part of its territory, from the
Volga to the Alaskan border, extending from the Volga military District
to the Far East Military District (see map below). The war drill
involved the dropping of bombs as well as missile launches against an
unnamed "notional enemy":
Long before dawn, more than ten Tu-160 and
Tu-95 cruise missile carriers of the long-range aviation regiment based
in [the town of] Engels set course for Russia's northern borders. The
aircraft were on the mission to reach the Arctic Ocean and launch
several practice cruise missiles at the Khalmer-Yu range near Vorkuta.
This was the last training sortie from a military airfield near
Saratov. Bombs were dropped and missiles fired throughout almost the
entire Northern hemisphere.
(...)
[Correspondent] One of the most important and
most difficult phases of the exercise involved bomb dropping at the
Guryanovo training range in Saratov Region. Eight Tu-22 strategic
bombers were tasked with destroying an airfield of the notional enemy.
Even from the command centre 10 km away, the explosions made by 250-kg
bombs appeared to be enormous. (Transcript of Russian TV Report,
Channel One TV, Moscow, Russian 0600 GMT 30 September 2006)
Russia's TU-22 Strategic bomber
In a scenario reminiscent of the Cold War
era, US and Canadian fighter aircraft intercepted Russian Tu-160 planes
off the Alaska coastline:
U.S. and Canadian fighter aircraft
intercepted Russian planes off the Alaska coast, but it was not
considered a hostile incident, the North American Aerospace Defense
Command said on Friday.
NORAD said the aircraft never violated U.S.
or Canadian airspace... But fighters were launched because the Russians
had entered a zone around North America in which NORAD considers
uninvited aircraft to be potential threatening.
The Tu-95 Bear heavy bombers had been
participating in an annual Russian air force exercise near the coast of
Alaska and Canada, NORAD said. It did not specify how many Russian
planes were involved. (Reuters, 2 October 2006)
Russian TU 160 cruise missile carrier
Russian TU-95 Bear Bomber
Both Russian and Western press reports
dismissed these major air exercises as routine, without examining the
broader framework and sequence of Russian sponsored war games
A NORAD spokesperson stated that while they
did not consider the Russian war games as "hostile", they,
nonetheless wanted the Russians to know that "NORAD is alive and well":
"This wasn't treated as a hostile. It was
just being vigilant and letting them know that NORAD is alive and
well," said Canadian Air Force Capt. Jennifer Faubert, a spokeswoman
for NORAD's Canadian Region. (Reuters, 2 October 2006)
ELMENDORF
AIR FORCE BASE, Alaska--An F-15C Eagle from the 12th Fighter Squadron
at Elmendorf Air Force Base flies next to a Russian Tu-95 Bear Bomber
during a Russian exercise Sept. 28, which brought the Bear near the
west coast of Alaska. The Eagle took off as part of North American
Aerospace Defense Command’s reaction to this training opportunity
provided by the Russian 137th Air Army. Photo
courtesy 12th Fighter Squadron, Elmendorf Air Force base.(Source NORAD
website)
Beyond the scope of a Middle East war, the
broader US military agenda, which includes the strategic defense
initiative, threatens global security. The various war games conducted
by Iran, Russia and China are not only intended to prepare for war,
they are also a demonstration of military capabilities to a potential
aggressor. They are also intended to act as a deterrent.
Reversing the Tide of War
The World is at the crossroads of the most
serious crisis in modern history. The US has embarked on a
military adventure, "a long war", which threatens the future of
humanity.
This article has attempted to document the
various preparations for war.
While there a number of factors which may
prevent this war from occurring, including divisions within the US
adminstration and military, behind the scenes negotiations with
China, Russia, Iran, etc., the risk of an extended Middle
East -Central Asian war must be forcefully addressed.
The devastation and loss of life which could result from this proposed
military agenda would be incalculable, particularly if the conflict
escalates to the broader region.
The possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by the US, ironically in
retalation for Iran's non-compliance to suspend uranium enrichment
(in its civilian nuclear energy program) raises the specter of a a
nuclear nightmare.
The economic disruptions resulting from a
broader Middle East war would not be limited to spiraling oil prices,
following a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz.
The energy crisis would immediately backlash on freight prices and
costs of production in virtually all sectors of economic activity. It
would also contribute to disrupting financial markets Worldwide.
Moreover, if China were to become involved in the conflict, the
large scale commodity trade in manufactured products out of China,
which supplies Western markets with vast array of consumer goods,
would be disrupted.
The issue is not whether the war will or will not take place but what are the instruments at our
disposal which will enable us to shunt and ultimately disarm this
global military agenda.
In the weeks and months ahead, it is
essential that citizens' movements around the world act
consistently to confront their respective governments and reverse and
dismantle this military agenda.
Dismantling the network of war propaganda is
essential. This war can not conducted without the support of the
corporate media, which ultimately upholds the US led war against Iran.
What is needed is to break the conspiracy of silence,
expose the media lies and distortions, confront the criminal nature of
the US Administration and of those governments which support it, its
war agenda as well as its so-called "Homeland Security agenda" which
has already defined the contours of a police State.
It is essential to bring the US war project
to the forefront of political debate, particularly in North America and
Western Europe. Political and military leaders who are opposed to the
war must take a firm stance, from within their respective institutions.
Citizens must take a stance individually and collectively against war.
War criminals occupy positions of authority.
The citizenry is galvanized into supporting the rulers, who are
"committed to their safety and well-being". Through media
disinformation, war is given a humanitarian mandate.
The legitimacy of the war must be addressed.
Antiwar sentiment alone does not disarm a military agenda. High ranking
officials of the Bush administration, members of the military and the
US Congress have been granted the authority to uphold an illegal war.
The corporate backers and sponsors of war and war crimes must also be
targeted including the oil companies, the defense contractors, the
financial institutions and the corporate media, which has become an
integral part of the war propaganda machine.
1. The role of media
disinformation in sustaining the military agenda is crucial.
We will not succeed in our endeavors unless the propaganda apparatus is weakened and
eventually dismantled. It is essential to inform our fellow
citizens on the causes and consequences of the US-led war,
not to mention the extensive war crimes and atrocities which are
routinely obfuscated by the media. This is no easy task. It
requires an effective counter-propaganda program which refutes
mainstream media assertions.
It is essential that the relevant information and analysis reaches the
broader public. The Western media is controlled by a
handful of powerful business syndicates. The media conglomerates
which control network TV and the printed press must be challenged
through cohesive actions which reveal the lies and falsehoods.
2. There is
opposition within the
political establishment in the US as well as within the ranks of the
Armed Forces.
While this opposition does not necessarily question to overall
direction of US foreign policy, it is firmly opposed to military
adventurism, including the use of nuclear weapons. These voices within
the institutions of the State, the Military and the business
establishment are important because they can be usefully channeled to
discredit and ultimately dismantle the "war on terrorism"
consensus. The broadest possible alliance of political and social
forces is, therefore, required to prevent a military adventure which in
a very real sense threatens the future of humanity.
3. The structure of
military alliances must be addressed. A timely shift in
military alliances could potentially reverse the course of
history.
Whereas France and Germany are broadly supportive of the US led war,
there are strong voices in both countries as well as within the
European Union, which firmly oppose the US led military agenda, both at
the grassroots level as well within the political system itself.
It is essential that the commitments made by European heads of
government and heads of State to Washington be cancelled or
nullified, through pressure exerted at the appropriate political
levels. This applies, in particular, to the unbending support of the
Bush administration, expressed by President Jacques Chirac and
Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The weakening of the system of alliances which commits Western Europe
to supporting the Anglo-American military axis, could indeed contribute
to reversing the tide. Washington would hesitate to wage a war on
Iran without the support of France and Germany.
4. The holding of large antiwar rallies is
important and essential. But in will not in itself reverse the
tide of war unless it is accompanied by the development of a cohesive
antiwar network.
What is required is a grass roots antiwar network, a mass movement at
national and international levels, which challenges the legitimacy of
the main military and political actors, as well as their
corporate sponsors, and which would ultimately be instrumental in
unseating those who rule in our name. The construction of this type of
network will take time to develop. Initially, it should focus on
developing an antiwar stance within existing citizens' organizations
(e.g. trade unions, community organizations, professional regroupings,
student federations, municipal councils, etc.).
5. 9/11 plays a crucial
and central role in the propaganda campaign.
The threat of an Al Qaeda
"Attack on America" is being used profusely by the Bush administration
and its indefectible British ally to galvanize public opinion in
support of a global military agenda. Known and documented, the "Islamic terror
network" is a creation of the US intelligence apparatus. Several of the
terror alerts were based on fake intelligence as revealed in the recent
foiled "liquid bomb attack". There is evidence
that the several of the terrorist "mass casualty events" which have
resulted in civilian casualties were triggered by the military and/or
intelligence services. (e.g Bali 2002).
The "war on terrorism" is bogus. The 911 narrative as conveyed by the
911 Commission report is fabricated. The Bush administration is
involved in acts of cover-up and complicity at the highest levels of
government.
Revealing the
lies behind 911 would serve to undermine the legitimacy of the
"war on terrorism" which constitutes the main justification for waging
war in the Middle East.
Without 911, the war criminals in high office do not have a leg to
stand on. The entire national security construct collapses like a deck
of cards.
TABLE
TIMELINE OF WAR GAMES
(IRAN, RUSSIA, CHINA AND THEIR COALITION PARTNERS) (August
-October 2006)
19 August 2006-- Iran:
Zarbat-e Zolfaqar military exercises, in major regions of the country.
These war games were slated to continue until late September.
24- 29 August: Russia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (observer status) under
the Collective Security Treaty Organization, (CSTO) The Rubezh-2006
exercise at the Kazak port city of Aktau .
24 August: China and
Kazakhstan held under SCO auspices. Held
simultaneously and in liaison with the CSTO war exercise in Kazakhstan.
22- 24 September: China
and Tajikistan: first joint military exercise,
code-named "Cooperation-2006".
27 September: Iran. Amphibious
war game named Payambar-e A'zam [Great Prophet] staged in Esfahan. A
number of battalions belonging to Brigade 1 of Imam Husayn Division 14
staged the Payambar-e A'zam war game in the Zayandeh River.
30 September: Russian Long
Range Air War Games out of the Saratov Air Base,
extending to the Far East, the Artic and the Russia-Alaska border.
These war games prompted the scrambling of NORAD fighter planes.
30 September: Russia,
Dagestan war games involving the 136th brigade, held
at the Buynakskiy training ground
2 October Kyrgyz war
games, Russian and Kyrgyz Special Forces.
4 October Russian
Navy Exercises in the Black Sea near Georgia's
coastline, in response to recent events in Georgia and following an
economic embargo on Georgia imposed by Russia.
Sources:
Press reports and wire services.
Michel Chossudovsky is the author of the
international best America’s
"War on Terrorism" Second Edition,
Global Research, 2005. He is Professor of Economics at the University
of Ottawa and Director of the Center for Research on
Globalization.
Note: Readers are welcome to cross-post this article with a view
to spreading the word and warning people of the dangers of a broader
Middle East war. Please indicate the source and copyright note.
Eric Waddell, Global Research 2003. Click image to enlarge
Disclaimer: The views
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