U.S. eyes strategic triad
with India and Israel
For
a decade, India and Israel have been developing a largely-secret strategic
alliance. Today, that relationship — based on the mutual struggle of two
non-Islamic countries to survive against larger and hostile neighbors —
is being tested.
The two
countries have agreed on an accelerated schedule for the delivery of weapons
as well as the prospect of obtaining systems embargoed by the West. They
have also increased their intelligence exchange and cooperation to a level
that has alarmed Iran, Pakistan and the Arab states.
The way
it works is quite simple. Israel provides security and military expertise
to New Delhi in such fields as command and control and counter-insurgency.
New Delhi provides Israel with access to India's borders with Afghanistan
and Pakistan as well as to regional states such as Iran.
The relationship
is built on that of Israel's Mossad with India's RAW agency. RAW, taking
advantage of India's significant presence in the Middle East, has tremendous
amounts of information on such countries as Iran, Libya and Pakistan. The
huge Indian expatriate presence in Gulf Cooperation Council states is another
area of Israeli interest.
So far,
the relationship is going well — so well, in fact, that the United States
has entered the fray. Washington now exchanges intelligence with India
in what appears to be the start of a trilateral strategic relationship.
Iran wary as U.S. reconnaissance
intensifies
The
Indian-U.S. cooperation has merely bolstered Washington's monitoring of
Iran. The result is that these days Iran feels the eyes of the United States
upon the Islamic republic.
U.S.
warplanes and unmanned air vehicles are flying constantly over the Iranian
border in reconnaissance missions to survey the movement of Al Qaida from
Afghanistan. This has been made possible by the new U.S. base at Herat
near the Iranian border.
Iranian
officials have watched such American UAVs as the Predator and Global Hawk.
These UAVs monitor Iranian military deployment deep into eastern Iran as
well as report on the movement of Al Qaida insurgents to and from Iran.
The Herat
base also allows the United States to more easily monitor Iran's weapons
of mass destruction program. Many of the tests take place in the deserted
Semnan region east of Teheran. The United States has been placing advanced
ground-based radar to detect missile and rocket tests deep in Iran without
the use of spy satellites.
Jordan caves in to Hizbullah
The
pressure on Jordan was tremendous. Iran, Lebanon and Syria pressed the
Hashemite kingdom to release three Hizbullah agents who were smuggling
Katyusha rockets from Lebanon through Syria and Jordan. The destination
of the weapons was the Palestinian Authority.
In the
end, King Abdullah decided that discretion would be the better part of
valor. He ordered the release of the three Hizbullah agents — arrested
late last year — on the basis of a pledge by Iran and Lebanon that this
wouldn't happen again.
Arab
intelligence sources are skeptical. As they see it, Hizbullah has been
operating with impunity in the Levant and the release of the three agents
could only bolster that assessment.
The sources
said Hizbullah employs Jordan for arms and insurgency smuggling to the
West Bank and Saudi Arabia. In April, the Saudi kingdom cracked down on
the infiltration of suspected insurgents and launched a widescale offensive
against strongholds along the Jordanian border.
For its
part, Hizbullah, which announced the detentions in March, isn't pledging
to stop the use of Jordan for arms smuggling. Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah
formally thanked Lebanese President Emile Lahoud "for the efforts, especially
by the Interior Ministry and general security, that led to the releases."
Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com,
June 11, 2002
Copyright © 2002 East West Services,
Inc. All rights reserved.
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