FOCUS ON JORDAN

U.S. worried by threats to Jordan as strategies
for neighboring Iraq take shape 


    As the United States develops plans to confront the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, it is growing concerned about the future of Jordan.
    U.S. officials fear King Abdullah will be overwhelmed by the rise in anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli sentiment in the kingdom. The sentiment, said to be supported by neighboring Iraq, has sparked large and increasingly violent demonstrations in Jordan.
    "We are getting SOS signals from Jordan," a U.S. intelligence source said. "This is not a problem that money can buy."
    Last week, the United States announced it intended to sell a $22 million long-range radar system to Jordan to help monitor air traffic in neighboring Iraq. U.S. officials said the Bush administration is considering other forms of aid to the Hashemite kingdom over the next few months.
    The officials said CIA director George Tenet has warned President George Bush that Jordan has become one of the most vulnerable of pro-U.S. Arab regimes. The CIA is said to have determined that King Abdullah has been unable to stem the rising tide of pro-Iraqi and anti-U.S. sentiment that is hampering Jordan's domestic and foreign policy.
    Jordan has a Palestinian majority that some analysts assert reaches 70 percent of the population. After efforts to halt political demonstrations, Jordanian ministers and Palestinian-born Queen Rania have joined anti-Israeli and anti-U.S. protests.
    On April 22, Jordan announced the arrest of several suspects in connection with the assassination attempt of the kingdom's intelligence chief in February. Jordanian sources said the suspects are believed linked to Iraq.
    Arab diplomatic sources said the United States has increased intervention in Jordanian affairs. The sources cited Jordan's announcement to lift subsidies on basic staples to implement recommendations of the International Monetary Fund as well as King Abdullah's decision to stay away from the Arab League summit in March.
    Officials said the Bush administration does not intend to grant Jordan a major increase in military aid. The administration has requested that Congress provide Jordan $25 million in emergency aid for fiscal 2002 and $198 million in military aid in 2003.
    Moreover, the administration does not plan to provide Jordan with greater leeway in defense relations with its Arab neighbors. Officials said Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has again turned down a Jordanian request to transfer U.S.-made M-48 tanks to Lebanon. Rumsfeld told visiting Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri last week that the U.S. ban on offensive weapons to Beirut would continue.
    Meanwhile, Jordan has for the first time sentenced Palestinian Authority officers to prison terms.
    A Jordanian military court sentenced four PA officers to up to 15 years in prison with hard labor on charges of smuggling weapons from Syria into Jordan. The weapons were meant to be smuggled into the West Bank for use in the insurgency war against Israel.
    In a closed session, the military court sentenced four of five Palestinian defendants. Two of the four officers convicted were sentenced in absentia. A fifth defendant was found not guilty.
    The defendants were said to hold the rank of major and captain in PA security forces. All were said to have been members of the Fatah movement led by PA Chairman Yasser Arafat.
    The defense admitted that they acquired weapons from Syria early last year. The defense said Jordanian security forces seized the arms before the defendants could use them.
    Those sentenced by the court to serve prison sentences are Khalil Anati, 46, and Bilal Ashkar, 37. They were both sent to seven years in jail. Abdul Muti Abu Mulik and Suleiman Omran were sentenced in absentia to 15 years.
    Arab diplomatic sources said the conviction reflects the rising tension between the Hashemite kingdom and the PA. The sources said Amman has been alarmed by the increasing involvement of Fatah members in the anti-Israeli unrest in the country.
    On April 30, the London-based Al Hayat daily reported that Jordan has demanded from Arafat the extradition of two Palestinians linked to the 1997 assassination of a Jordanian diplomat in Beirut. The extradition request asserted that the suspected Palestinian assassins are members of the Abu Nidal group and currently live in the West Bank city of Ramallah.
    The two Palestinians were convicted by a Jordanian court in absentia last year. The PA had imprisoned the Abu Nidal members, but they were released on the eve of the Israeli military offensive in the West Bank on March 29. 


Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com, May 7, 2002
Copyright © 2002 East West Services, Inc. All rights reserved.